Picking the Mountain West Games: Week Five

Week four was a good week for the Mountain West. TCU beat Clemson on the road 13-10 and Utah easily handled Louisville at home 30-14. But, New Mexico, which looks like the worst team in the conference, lost to New Mexico State.

Meanwhile in conference play, we say Air Force and BYU handled San Diego State and Colorado State as expected. But Wyoming, a six-point underdog, was able to pull of the 30-27 upset over UNLV.

Last week, we had five participants who picked games straight up and against the spread.

Here are the standings after week four.

First, we will do straight up record:

Tyler(me): 4-2 (New Mexico and UNLV lost)
Ryan: 4-2 (New Mexico and UNLV lost)
Chris: 4-2 (New Mexico and UNLV lost)
Jack: 3-3 (New Mexico, TCU, and UNLV lost)
The Coin: 3-3 (New Mexico, TCU, and UNLV lost)

And now, against the spread:

One note here:
BYU won by 19 to cover an 18 point spread because CSU missed a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. Wow that was close!

Tyler: 4-2 (Colorado State and New Mexico didn't cover)
The Coin: 4-2 (Louisville and Air Force didn't cover)
Chris: 3-3 (Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico didn't cover)
Ryan: 2-4 (Only BYU and TCU covered)
Jack: 2-4 (Only Utah and BYU covered)

And finally, combined record:

Tyler: 8-4
Chris: 7-5
The Coin: 7-5
Ryan: 6-6
Jack: 5-7

Feel free to join in! It's not too late.

A few side notes:

Underdogs were 4-2 against the spread (Only BYU and Utah covered). Home/Away teams were 3-3 against the spread.

Now, let's take a look at week five.

New Mexico State (2-2) at San Diego State (1-3)

New Mexico State just took down New Mexico last week, now they get a chance to take down another Mountain West Conference school.

San Diego State is 0-3 on the road, playing three, relatively, tough opponents. They are 1-0 at home.

San Diego State is the favorite, and my pick to win, but I expect New Mexico State (+14.5) to cover against the spread.

New Mexico (0-4) at Texas Tech (2-2)

New Mexico looks like the worst team in the conference this year, and they have the fortune to represent the Mountain West against Texas Tech.

Texas Tech has lost two close ones to two top 10 teams in Texas and Houston.

Texas Tech is the overwhelming favorite, and I pick them to win, but New Mexico (+35) to cover.

Colorado State (3-1) at Idaho (3-1)

Both teams are off to surprisingly good starts. Both teams' single losses came to quality teams on the road, Washington and BYU. Idaho beat San Diego State earlier in the season.

This should be an interesting game.

Colorado State is the road favorite. I'll take Colorado State to win, but pick Idaho (+7.5) to cover the spread.

SMU (2-1) at TCU (3-0)

TCU had the biggest victory of the week, beating a quality ACC team, Clemson, on their home turf, 14-10. SMU is 2-1, with their only loss at Washington State, 30-27.

TCU is the undisputed favorite in this one, and I will pick them to win. But I will pick SMU (+26.5) to cover the spread.

TCU is one of the best teams in the country, but +26.5 points is too tempting to pass up for me.

Wyoming (2-2) at Florida Atlantic (0-3)

Wyoming is coming off a close victory to UNLV at home. Wyoming is 2-1 at home, with their only loss to No. 2 Texas. In their lone road game this year, they lost to Colorado 24-0.

It's hard to tell how Wyoming will play, especially after having to travel clear down to Florida.

Florida Atlantic's losses are to Nebraska and South Carolina on the road, and Louisiana Monroe at home by two.

I expect this to be a close game. Florida Atlantic is the favorite in this one, but I will pick Wyoming (+2.5) to win and cover the spread.

Utah State (1-2) at BYU (3-1)

BYU came out hungry against Colorado State, going up 21-0 after one quarter, reasserting themselves as the elite team they were in the first two games of the season. Then they cruised to a 42-23 victory.

Utah State notched its first victory of the season last week, after two tough road losses against Utah and Texas A&M. They have looked like a vastly improved team this year. They only lost 38-30 at Texas A&M.

BYU is the massive favorite in this one. I expect them to win, but Utah State (+27.5) to cover the spread.

UNLV (2-2) at UNR (0-3)

UNLV, despite being six point favorites, failed to win a conference road game yet again. Their last conference road win came nearly five years ago against BYU. But luckily, this game is a non-conference game against their fierce rival.

UNR is off to an 0-3 start, losing at Notre Dame, at Colorado State, and to Missouri at home.

UNR has won the last four meetings by an average score of 32 to 16.

I think this will be a close game. And so do the prognosticators. UNR is the slight favorite, but I will pick UNLV (+2.5) to cover the spread and win outright.

Air Force (3-1) at Navy (2-2)

Both teams are off to good starts in 2009. Air Force is 3-1, having only lost at Minnesota. Navy has only lost at Ohio State and at Pittsburgh, taking Ohio State to the wire in week one before eventually falling 31-27.

Air Force has suffered six straight losses to the Naval Academy, all by a touchdown or less.

Air Force (+3.5) is a slight underdog, but I am picking them to win and cover the spread. I think Air Force will finally break their losing streak.

The Infamous Coin (4-2)

The Coin went 4-2 against the spread last week. So if you are smart, you would be wise to go with it. It only went 3-3 straight up though (the coin always picks the favorites to win).

Heads will be the home team, and Tails will be the away team.

New Mexico at Texas Tech. Tails. So that means New Mexico (+35).

New Mexico State at San Diego State. Heads. So that means San Diego State (-14.5).

Colorado State at Idaho. Tails. So that means Colorado State (-7.5).

SMU at TCU. Tails. So that means SMU (+26.5).

Wyoming at Florida Atlantic. Heads. So that means Florida Atlantic (-2).

Utah State at BYU. Heads. So that means BYU (-27.5).

UNLV at UNR. Tails. So that means UNLV (+2.5).

Air Force at Navy. Heads. So that means Navy (-3.5).

Power Rankings and Wrap Up

So in summary, my picks are:

New Mexico (+35) to cover, but not win over Texas Tech.
New Mexico State (+14.5) to cover, but not win over San Diego State.
Idaho (+7.5) to cover but not win, over Colorado State.
SMU (+26.5) to cover but not win, over TCU.
Wyoming (+2.5) to cover and win over FAU.
Utah State (+27.5) to cover but not win, over BYU.
UNLV (+2.5) to cover and win over UNR.
Air Force (+3.5) to cover and win over Navy.

Yes, that is right, I picked every single underdog to cover.

My Power Rankings

1. TCU
2. BYU
3. Utah
4. Air Force
5. Colorado State
6. Wyoming
7. UNLV
8. San Diego State
9. New Mexico

Alright! Well, good luck with your picks everyone!