2008 NFL Preview: NFC South

The Saints concentrated on improving their defense this off-season. They traded for Jonathan Vilma. He is much more suited as the middle linebacker in a 4-3 scheme. The Jets going to a 3-4 really hurt his production last year.  If he can return to his 2004 and 2005 form, that will help the Saints' defense considerably. They drafted Ellis in the first round out of USC to improve their defensive tackle position. They also added Bobby McCray. Those two should help the Saints improve on a rush defense that ranked a respectable 13th in the NFL. It should also improve the pass rush. McCray will also give them insurance should Charles Grant have to miss time with his legal problems. He has been indicted by a Georgia grand jury with involuntary manslaughter.

They've also improved their secondary. Randall Gay is an upgrade. They also drafted Tracy Porter in the second round from Indiana. The Saints are hoping that with a couple of additional pass rushers and a few more defensive backs they can improve on their 30th ranked defense. The Saints secondary is by no means perfect, but should not give up quite as many big plays as they did in 2007.

Prediction: I am still bitter at the New Orleans Saints for their 2007 season, and I’m not even a Saints fan. My preseason prediction in 2007 was for the New England Patriots to beat the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl. The fact that they didn’t even qualify for the playoffs was annoying, to say the least.
The most troubling thing was that they missed the playoffs because of poor play and inconsistency. It wasn’t as if Brees was lost for the season early and altered the dynamic of their season. They couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t stop the pass. That keeps other offenses on the field to exploit the Saints’ weakness and the result was blowouts to good teams and a lot of losses to bad teams that were unexplainable.

I think they have improved this defense.  I’m not saying it will be confused with the 2000 Ravens, but I think that Vilma, Ellis, McCray, Gay, and Porter should help. I also think Payton is a good coach that had a bad year. He will reevaluate his play calling and try to go down the field more this season.

The schedule looks good for them.  It is one of the easier ones in the NFL. The AFC West is going through a transition and the NFC North has some winnable games. Washington and San Francisco are winnable games as well. They aren't in an AFC South type of division, so they should be okay there.

I went back and forth on whether to pick the Saints to win the NFC South for a second straight year.  After much debate, I finally decided to give them another try. That doesn’t mean I think they are a Super Bowl team, but I do think that if they play to their talents, they have the best shot to win the NFC South.

New Orleans’ Record: 10-6–NFC South Divisional Champion; NFC No. 3 Seed

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

'07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 270 (3rd)
Playoff Result: Lost in the NFC Wildcard Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 120-136 (.469) (20th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Buccaneers had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2007. The Bucs finished first in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 170.5 yards per game, and  third in points allowed with 16.9.  Their only real weakness on defense was stopping the run, which ranked 17th.

They didn’t do well on defense by putting a lot of pressure on the QB. Their 33 sacks ranked tied for 16th in the NFL. They didn’t pick a lot of passes. Their 16 interceptions ranked tied for 17th in the NFL. Their completion percentage allowed of 60.6 ranked only 15th in the NFL. So how did this pass defense rank No. 1 over the NY Giants, San Diego Chargers, and New England Patriots who all ranked much higher in sacks and turnovers?

The explanation is two-fold. 1) It helped that they did not play most of the top passing offenses. They drew Tennessee and Jacksonville with Garrard injured. They drew Atlanta and Carolina twice without Jake Delhomme. They played the NFC West 49ers and Rams. Washington had passing issues. The best passing offenses they played in 2007 were Arizona, Detroit, Indianapolis, Houston, New Orleans twice, and Seattle. Only Indy and Seattle made the playoffs, which Tampa Bay was blown out by in both games.

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