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Every year, hundreds of pundits, commentators and analysts get paid millions of dollars to predict the NFL season. It starts with draft analysts and goes all the way up to fantasy football gurus and Las Vegas odds setters.
It is a world, a strange world, where accuracy is never gauged. None of those prognosticators get a single dime to be right or lose a penny when they are wrong.
It's entertainment. All of it.
The experts are paid to be knowledgeable and entertaining. When they are wrong, they act surprised or point out how "everyone was wrong" without mentioning their own accountability.
In the end, we're all culpable. I certainly know I was wrong in the preseason.
I correctly called a lot of things, if you go back and check out my "disappointing" and "impact" rookie articles, I hit on almost all of them. My breakout player article is also pretty spot on.
However, I thought the Patriots would come out guns a-blazing.
I thought Jeremy Shockey was a junk fantasy player and I called Chad Pennington the most underrated. (I stick with that last point but now he may be done for good.)
So, here's the Schottey Six for this week. Which players are proving us wrong —in a good way!
As of right now, Jerricho Cotchery has 18 receptions for 285 yards and a touchdown. That puts him on pace for nearly 100 catches and 1500 yards.
Even with a drop off, this should be a career best season. Even at 75 percent of those projected numbers, Cotchery would be among the league's best at season's end.
He's playing with a rookie quarterback.
Calvin Johnson, who is physically a much better athlete, is playing with a rookie and doesn't have as good of numbers.
Cotchery is the MVP of this team right now.
While he's shrugging off criticism that he's just a "glorified slot receiver," he's tearing up the league.
Looking ahead at the schedule, the only week Cotchery sould be shut down is week nine—the bye.
Kyle Orton sucks, right?
That's what we heard, thought, said, opined to one another. His preseason didn't help much.
Wait, are we talking about 2008 or 2009?
Last year, Orton piloted the Bears to a 9-7 record with a cast of characters that included Matt Forte, a cup of coffee and a draft pick to be named later. Seriously, the guy had no help.
This year, the Broncos are 3-0 and Orton hasn't thrown an INT and has a 91.3 QB rating.
Sure Kyle Orton is no John Elway, he's not even Jay Cutler.
But Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley aren't Rod Smith and Ed Mcaffrey either. Daniel Graham isn't Shannon Sharpe and Correll Buckhalter isn't Terrell Davis.
As Orton grows into this offense, into this cast of characters, he could get even better. Gradually, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno will be added in after missing time during the preseason. At some point, Eddie Royal has to bust out.
Orton is 26 years old and has his team at 3-0 without some of its best offensive playmakers.
Maybe Kyle Orton doesn't suck.
Maybe, just maybe, all of us should shut up and give him a shot.
Speaking of former Chicago Bears who suck...
Cedric Benson is currently third in the league in total rushing yards, averaging a career best 4.4 yards per rush and has carried the ball more times in the first three games than he ever has in his career.
Two teams Benson has faced, Denver and Pittsburgh rank in the top ten in rush defense so far this season.
Benson put up nearly 80 yards and a touchdown against both of them.
His best effort, however, was against Green Bay.
Benson gashed the Packers for 141 yards—nearly as much as Green Bay has given up in the other two games combined (against Matt Forte and Steven Jackson).
Is Benson a top back in this league? No, probably not.
But he's not over, not done, and certainly could find a home on plenty of other teams than just the Bengals. Ask Houston.
The Baltimore Ravens are a team defined by their defense. The offense just needs to have some ball control and get out of the way. If the offense doesn't lose games, the defense can win it.
That has been the mantra for as long as just about anyone can remember in Baltimore.
Joe Flacco don't play that.
Flacco has gone all Johnny Unitas on the NFL, passing for over 800 yards in three games.
The Ravens shouldn't be doing this. A unretired Derrick Mason, Kelly Washington and Mark Clayton shouldn't be relevant. Todd Heap is supposed to be washed up.
Flacco isn't just leaning on one or two targets either. He's airing the place out and hitting a variety of receivers. Flacco's top two targets—Mason and Washington— have combined for 34 percent of the team's catches. His top four, only 79 percent.
Flacco has found a way to get receivers, running backs, tight ends and fullbacks into the passing offense.
He's done playing second fiddle to Matt Ryan.
He might be done playing second fiddle to anyone.
When Antwan Odom had eight sacks for Tennessee in 2007, critics cautioned teams from overpaying for the young men from Alabama—he had only played in four games the year before and many thought he was an injury risk and a flash in the pan.
After injuries and lackluster play in '08, many forgot about Odom and chalked him up as another Bengal bust.
Then Odom woke everyone up with a two sack performance against Kyle Orton and the Broncos.
And THEN Odom set the world on fire with five against Aaron Rogers.
In my estimation, Odom is clearly the Bengals MVP this year. Not only did he single-handedly demolish the Packer offensive line. He also drove the Pittsburgh Steelers into max protect mode, limiting their offensive options.
I don't believe that Odom will lead the league in sacks this year or break the single season record (which he is on pace to tie).
However, teams now have to game plan for Odom and he has changed the way people look at that Bengals defense.
That is quite a surprise.
An even bigger surprise is the answer to one of the preseason's biggest questions.
Who will Eli Manning throw to?!?!?
It was just about all that could be said about the Giants in the offseason—Plaxico this, Plaxico that. Who should the Giants trade for? Who can possibly make up for the offense?
The Giants just chuckled.
Certainly Mario Manningham isn't the only answer to that question. The second year player from Michigan is second in the team in receptions and yardage—Steve Smith is first in both categories.
But we expected this out of Smith. He was third on the team in receiving last year and was poised for a big season.
No one expected this out of Manningham.
Domenik Hixon was supposed to carry the load. Hakeem Nicks was drafted to be a big time playmaker. Kevin Boss was poised for a huge season.
Mario Manningham? He was in danger of making the team at one point and many thought he needed to show punt returning ability if he were to have any value to the Giants.
Instead, Manningham looks like the team's best big play threat and one of Eli's favorite targets.
Elvis Dumervil (DE—Denver Broncos)
With only one sack less than Odom, I almost put Dumervil on this list. However, I expect good things from the former Louisville Cardinal. He fits perfectly in the defense and owns the collegiate single game sack record. He's also gotten his sacks against lesser competition.
Kevin Kolb (QB—Philadelphia Eagles)
The Eagles are finished without McNabb? What? Kolb is igniting a QB controversy in Philly where some fans wanted McNabb out the door years ago.
Vincent Jackson (WR—San Diego Chargers)
Jackson led the Chargers in receiving last year, the first receiver to do so in a while. This year he's hitting the end zone and stretching the defense in new and exciting ways. Phillip Rivers is starting to notice Jackson a whole lot more and Jackson is responding.
Fred Jackson (RB—Buffalo Bills)
The Bills were supposed to muddle through without Marshawn Lynch. The Bills were supposed to look for veteran RB help for the weeks before Lynch returned. Instead, Jackson has rattled off 97 yards per game.
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