The Los Angeles Lakers just found out they will be facing their old time rivals, the Boston Celtics, in the NBA Finals. The Celtics defeated the Pistons in six games while the Lakers dominated the Spurs in five games behind the world's best player: Kobe Bryant.
The Lakers are going to defeat the Celtics in five games. They are way too good and offensively efficient for the Celtics to keep up with them. They also are playing as well as any team in the league could possibly be playing going into the Finals. I am going to preview the key matchups for the Finals.
Point Guard: Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar vs. Rajon Rondo/Sam Cassell
The Lakers have an edge as Fisher is very experienced, a great leader, a fantastic perimeter shooter, and a solid defender. Farmar is a good, young player who brings a lot of energy for the Lakers. Rondo is a below average point guard and Cassell is all but finished.
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant/Sasha Vujacic vs. Ray Allen/Eddie House
The Lakers completely dominate this matchup as Kobe is the best player in the league. Sasha is a very good role player coming off the bench. He provides outside shooting and tough defense. Allen has been struggling throughout the playoffs and will probably continue to struggle. House has barely gotten any playing time and shouldn't be a factor.
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Small Forward: Vladimir Radmonavic/Luke Walton vs. Paul Pierce/James Posey
The Celtics have a clear advantage as Pierce is a superstar and Posey is a good role player. Radmonavic has quietly played well for the Lakers, knocking down outside shots. Walton is a good, intelligent player off the bench for the Lakers Trevor Ariza, the defensive minded forward, will be a big key for the Lakers to guard Pierce. He is 6-8, long, athletic and extremely quick. He should be able to bother Pierce.
Power Forward: Lamar Odom/Radmonavic vs. Kevin Garnett/P.J. Brown
The Celtics have a slight advantage as KG should have a very good series. Brown provides the Celtics with toughness, defense, and experience. Odom should also have a good series, as he will be an important player on the glass for the Lakers.
Center: Pau Gasol/Ronny Turiaf vs. Kendrick Perkins/Brown
The Lakers have a huge advantage as Gasol should be able to dominate both inside and outside. Turiaf is a great role player for the Lakers who provides tremendous energy and passion. Perkins is a below average center who is a pretty good rebounder and an average defender.
Bench: Farmar/Sasha/Walton/Turiaf/Ariza vs. Cassell/Brown/Posey/House
The Lakers have a clear advantage as their bench provides a lot more energy and are much better offensively than the bench of the Celtics, who are more defensive minded. Sasha and Ariza are the two main players off the bench in this series for the Lakers. The Celtics need Cassell, Brown, and Posey to play well.
Coaches: Phil Jackson vs. Doc Rivers
The Lakers have a monumental advantage as Jackson is the greatest coach of all time. Rivers is a below average coach who has never coached a team past the first round before this season. Jackson is much better at making a game plan and making adjustments, while Rivers is average at making a game plan and slow at making adjustments between each game and during halftime.
Prediction: I think the Lakers have way too much depth, offensive firepower, and too much Kobe for them to lose. I also think the great advantages they have in their bench and coach will provide the key difference. They are going to win one of the first two game in Boston and then win games three through five in L.A. to win their 15th championship in franchise history.
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3 months ago
Tony Parker of the Spurs and Rajon Rondo have some similarities that favor the Lakers, they have mediocre jump shots(though Parkers has been improving) and are most effective when they get into the paint. I expect the Lakers to defend Rondo in the same way the guarded Parker, by having Fisher keep him out of the paint, which frees up Fisher for doubling Pierce and KG and will force Rondo to shoot his unreliable jumper. Regardless, I'm excited for the finals and can't wait! Go Lakers!
3 months ago
Great analysis here, you have a few things very wrong however.
I will respectfully ask you to take a look back at any previews you can find about the 1984 Celts-Lakers Series.
Lakers too gifted offensively, Boston will never be able to keep up, etc. Boston WON the series.
I've got news for you.
PJ may be a great coach BUT it is EASY to be great when you have Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Shaq, Scottie Pippen on your team. The greatest players of all time have a way of making you look like a genius.
Doc Rivers has not had that luxury. Doc went from a bad coach last year to a pretty good coach this year with the addition of KG and Allen. I'll admit, I was one of those that didn't think much of Rivers but overall he is exactly what this Celtics team needs. The players love him and play hard for him....no small thing to achieve in this day and age. He has done a pretty good job at helping this team mesh, each of the big 3 working together selflessley.
You have a big surprise coming to you if you think LA will breeze through Boston. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA, The Celtics are now battletested.
Championships start on DEFENSE and Boston has the better one.
It will be a great series, The Lakers have a great team and one of the all time greats in Kobe.
Pierce, KG and Ray Allen have 20+ All Star appearances amongst them.
Thank the basketball gods that the rivalry is renewed.
The Celtics will win the series in 7 - sorry to disapoint you.
from 3 months ago
Sorry to break this to you, but the Lakers can play defense. Against the Spurs, defense was the reason behind them comign back from a 20 points and 17 points deficit. At Utah, defense was the reason behind their lone win at Utah. Against Denver, the best scoring team in the regular season, the held them Nuggets to less than 95 points for several games. The Lakers have a great offense and can be great on defense when they want to be.
from 3 months ago
Celtics have the better regular season record, Lakers have the better playoff record. Which means more at this point?
Lakers just beat the defending champs, are they not battletested as well? They overcame 17 and 20 point deficits in that series. BTW, Celtics had a habit of allowing teams that were behind to get back in the game in the 4th quarter, something the Lakers are very good at doing.
Doc Rivers can't seem to find a rotation that makes him happy. Glen Davis, Leon Powe, Eddie House, PJ Brown, Sam I am never know what games and when they're going to play. The Lakers have a set rotation with a bench that knows when its coming in and have won the team some games this year.
Lakers are playing their best basketball of the year and Kobe has looked unstoppable. Lakers will prevail.
3 months ago
Sure LA can play defense, just not quite as well as Bosotn does.
The Lakers are favored in the series and may well win. It just won't be in 5 games I can assure you. Bosotn is too talented to be wiped out in 5, however with a 2-3-2 format I can see possibility if Lakers win 1 of 1st 2 in Bosotn. Should be a great series.
3 months ago
i agree, lakers in 5. kobe and phil have more finals experience than the celtics combined. and don't ever argue that experience is overrated, just ask chandler and his hornets.
kobe is a man on a mission, and he will absolutely destroy anyone who dares to stop him.
i'd also like to comment about keith's comment regarding phil jackson. for the record, michael jordan, scottie pippen, kobe bryant, and shaquill o'neal never became nba champions until they were coached by jackson. it's a mutual thing. jackson makes his players better, in as much as the jackson's players make their coach better. phil jackson is a coach for the ages. doc rivers simply cannot stand up to him.
anyway, i look for pierce and garnett to have good games. however, kobe will do whatever it takes to win. in the past few years, he hasn't gotten the right formula. but this year, he's got it. he's gonna do it right this time.
the impact will come from the bench. if farmar and sasha would prove to be capable defenders, then it will be a laker advantage because no player on the celtics team can actually stop kobe. kobe and gasol will get theirs; pierce and garnett will get theirs. it's up to odom and allen/rondo.
lakers in 5.
3 months ago
I see Rondo and Farmar as virtually equal at the PG position. And I see Turiaf and Perkins as equals a the Center. Perkins has bit more capacity of scoring and Turiaf is a much better shot blocker. That tells you that Lakers have two guys coming off the bench that are equal two of the Celtic starters.
The Celtic bench cannot sustain the effort against the Lakers. That will be the ultimate difference. The Laker bench comes in with superb energy and they will tire out the old Celtic bench which features Cassell, PJ Brown, Posey, and Davis.
Simply looking at how the bench plays, we know the Celtics cannot run with LA nor do they have enough offense to counter the offense the Lakers have off the bench. The Celtic bench will have a difficult time inside against Turiaf. He is a specialist shock blocker.
Davis and PJ Brown will have to knock down a lot of outside shots for this to be a competitive series.
3 months ago
Nobody on this board knows what the hell they're talking about. Rondo equal to Farmar? Sure, if you don't take defense, dribbling and passing into consideration. And you'll be taking your "below average point guard" comment back after this series. Rondo will play in multiple All-Star games before he's done.
C's play better defense than LA, and have a matchup advantage across the starting 5. LA's only clear advantage is Kobe over Allen. Rondo/Fisher will be even, Perkins/Gasol even on most nights (Gasol will have some big nights, and some no-so-big nights because Perkins can defend him if he keeps him out of the paint), while Paul Pierce and KG versus Odom/Radmonovic and is a huge advantage for the C's. In the end, it'll come down to how Rondo and Perkins play. If they play well in a majority of the games, C's will win. If Fisher/Farmar make shots consistently, and Odom/Radmonovic play well consistently, then LA probably wins. Whatever happens, it won't end in 5, that's for sure.
from 3 months ago
Sure Rondo can dribble and pass, however he has to get in the paint. The Lakers will guard him just like they did Tony Parker. They'll just force him to knock down Jumpers and keep him out of the paint. Rondo has all-star potential but he has a ways to go for now. C's play better defense than LA, but LA plays better offense than anyone the Celtics have played these playoffs.
Do the benches besides Jordan Farmar not exist anymore? The Lakers bench has been a huge reason for their success. This series will not be decided by just the play of the starters.
3 months ago
Are you kidding me? Rando will play in multiple all star games in his career. He is a below average point guard even when he is playing with 2 first ballot hall of famers and another multiple time all star. He is a poor offensive player and a pretty good defensive player. He is not even good enough to start on a championship contender.
from 3 months ago
Below average? That's just silly. I am not a stat freak and certainly don't think of Wages of Wins or PER as the end all, be all, of analytical basketball coverage, but it is worth noting that Rondo was named their most underrated player in the league this year:
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/05/24/the-underrated-in-2007-08/
Beyond that, the kid is averaging 10.5 ppg, 6.5 apg, and 4.2 rpg, and 1.8 spg in the playoffs. Derek Fisher is average 10.2 ppg, 2.2 apg, 2.5 rpg, and 2.3 spg. They have played essentially even minutes. Fish may be more efficient as a pure scorer, but Rondo's passing and rebounding make him a significantly more dynamic player. If you're counting, Rondo is averaging more playoff assists than Tony Parker did in the regular season...and only Kidd and Baron Davis averaged more than 4.2 rebounds per game from the PG position this season.
The bottom line is that Rondo is an inconsistent scorer, but his speed, quickness, and ball handling, rebounding, and passing make him a pretty good player when his game is clicking. The problem for the Celtics is not knowing which Rondo will show up on a night by night basis.
3 months ago
What makes this series so fascinating is that the Celtics are still a mystery after all this time. They struggled against Atlanta...then played tough against an equally mysterious Cleveland team, then dispatched the Pistons with much more ease than anyone expected. Rondo looks like a young stud one game, then disappears the next. Ray Allen fluctuates between being a non-factor and an absolute late-game killer. KG and Pierce have been the most consistent players, but even their performances have varied wildly from game to game.
The Lakers have been much more consistent and I think everyone agrees that they should win this series if the Celts throw up too many stinkers. But here's the thing....the Celtics don't need to play 7 good games. They need to play 4 good games. I've watched the Celts all season long (as well as about ten post-Gasol trade Laker games) and I'm not ready to say the Celtics can't do it.
I think Ray Allen is the X factor for the Celtics. Not in the sense that they need him to be the leading scorer, but in the sense that their the offense is dramatically different when he is scoring a reliable 16 points per game, as to opposed to when...well...he sucks. If he shoots 45% for the series, the Celts have a real shot. Anything less and I think they are in trouble.
3 months ago
I think many people are making too much of the Detroit-Boston series and forgetting the fact that Boston needed 7 games to finish off Atlanta and Cleveland. Detroit though an intelligent team was hobbling around with several injuries which would certainly have benched those players had it been the regular season. Also Flip Saunders did a horrible job of coaching this series. Rasheed Wallace hardly put any pressure on front court. I don't know if he was injured but for Detroit to win, they need him posting up. This would have forced Garnett to play more defense and limited his energy on offense. Rasheed Wallace didn't have the ball enough through the series nor did he take enough shots. He was played tight but that doesn't mean he couldn't have created some of his shots and got Garnett in foul trouble. Overall Detroit was a hobbling team with a poor coaching job on the part of Flip Saunders.
Look for Fisher to exploit Rondo immediately during game 1. Rondo consistently makes errors reading plays and tries to make up for them with speed, which worked against a battered Detroit squad but will not work against a peaking and completely healthy LA.
Lakers have dismissed some of the best Guards in the NBA this playoff season. Fisher and Farmer have faced off against Allen Iverson, Deron Williams, and Tony Parker. Fisher is a strong guard who is an excellent defender and leader while Farmar brings speed, quickness and fire.
I am sure that Doc Rivers knows that Rondo will have a Bulls Eye on his back throughout this series. Fisher/Farmar are much superior to Bostons PGs, especially after beating the best PGs in the league this postseason.
In regards to Rondo's speed, there is no guard in the NBA that is faster and more efficient than Tony Parker. And he is on vacation now.
I don't see the Celtics having any major advantage on any position except Paul Pierce. He's a unique sort of talent that needs to be confronted with different combinations. After having dispatched Carmelo Anthony and Manu Ginobili I think the Lakers will have to work a bit harder on Pierce but he will not be able to take them home to championship purely due to the fact that Lakers will have many solid defenders to take him out of the game.
3 months ago
i'm sure that if farmar gets rondo's minutes, he would have the same - or even better - statistics. rondo looks good because he is a starter. he rebounds well because the celtics have few legitimate rebounders (even KG averaged less than 10 rebounds per game). he passes well because he is a starting point guard.
now, put farmar there and he might even average the same number of rebounds and the same number of assists. and i'm pretty much sure that he would average a lot more points than rondo because unlike rondo who thrives only in the paint, farmar can shoot threes consistently.
heck, with all these rondo talk, i think he's not at all underrated. he has become overrated.
now, please don't compare fisher and rondo. right now, fisher is kinda old. but if you have a team and you want a guy to fill in the starting point guard spot, i think you know who to pick. fisher is a guy who never gives you big stats, but he is definitely a guy you want on your team.
in any case, fisher is experienced. rondo is not. so i guess that spells the difference.
3 months ago
Worst analysis I've seen. Celtics crushed Lakers twice in regular season and Bynum was playing like an all star at the time.
Everyone rants about Kobe. Celts have already defended Kobe twice in the regular season and in the playoffs against LeBron James....keep him outside and he'll hit some and miss some as the rest of the Lakers stand around watching him.
Celts have point guard advantage as Rondo has played well against better point guards than Fisher and Farmar. Perkins outplayed Wallace and Ilgauskas--equals of Gasol. No one on the Lakers can guard Garnett. No one can guard Pierce. Celts will switch off Allen, Pierce, and Posey on Kobe keeping a fresh body on him. None of the other Lakers create their own offense and are basically jump shooters. Laker Bench is younger and energetic...Celts have the experience. I'll take the experience. Celts bench will play more including House as no Laker applies point guard pressure like the last two series.
Finally, Celts play much tougher physical defense than LA disrupting the Triangle offense rhythm as the number 1 field goal percentage against at 41%. Matchups favor Celts. This time Doc has the horses to stay with Jackson from a coaching standpoint. Easy to coach with Jordan and Pippen.....or Shaq and Kobe.
Celts in 6 winning two in Boston, one in LA, and game 6 in Boston. Defense wins championships--Celts have vastly superior defense to LA as the West teams other than the Spurs just lope up and down the court running and gunning.
Bill
from 3 months ago
Bill,
Ilgauskas doesn't equal a Gasol.
Gasol is much more skilled, younger, quicker and athletic than most seven footers in the game. Here's a clip of him taking Garnett to the hoop and dunking on him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nHAuZdEH9Q
Why do you think many teams in the West were complaining so much when the Lakers traded for him. And by the way he just got finished playing against Tim Duncan, the best PF ever and did a good job on him. Garnett does not even compare to Duncan. So this should be a much easier matchup for Pau.
from 3 months ago
Bynum was hardly playing like an allstar, he was playing like the Most Improved Player of the year.
As for defending Kobe like Lebron, Kobe is much better shooter. Kobe will hit shots that Lebron was bricking. Don't come back with a stat saying Lebron shot 48% this year, a dunk is a high percentage shot, Lebron spends his time at the rim.
As already noted point Guards the Lakers have faced this postseason: Allen Iverson, Deron Williams, Tony Parker
All of these are better than Rajon Rondo.
Pau Gasol will have Perkins in foul trouble all series with his athleticism. Gasol is athletic, if you disagree go watch the first game of the playoffs, Lakers vs. Denver.
Celtics certainly have the experience coming off the bench, but the Lakers bench comes in and gives their team a huge spark and plays uptempo. Can the experienced Celtics bench keep up? Lakers also have two talented defenders coming off the bench in Trevor Ariza and Sasha Vujacic. As noted in the article Ariza is a long, athletic defender while Vujacic is an annoying, fearless defender.
Lakers just played the Spurs and the Jazz, both play physical defensive games. Lakers took care of both and won at the hardest place to win in the league (Utah). Utah was number 13 in the league in points allowed, Spurs are number 3 in the league in points allowed and the Lakers beat them in 5 games.
3 months ago
Duncan is on the downside of his career. Scored 10 against Garnett in San Antonio on 4-8 shooting in 34 1/2 minutes. Garnett had 21. He's slow and not athletic--same as Gasol. Garnett is faster and a far superior athlete than Gasol or Duncan. So Gasol dunked on Garnett? So did Rasheed Wallace, how did he do and how did that work out for him last series?
Other than Kobe the matchups favor the Celts. Perkins has already had a 21 point 9 rebound game against the Lakers in Boston against a tougher guy--Bynum. Odom has 4 points against the Celts one game and shot 6 for 17 the other. Don't expect much help from him--he's overmatched in this series.
Bill
3 months ago
One other thing. 22 year old Rajan Rondo--should be coming out of Kentucky this year. This guy is a young Mo Cheeks. Watch him. He'll be making all star teams within two years as he just keeps getting better--exceptionally smart.
Averaging only 1-2 turnovers a game and outplayed Parker, Kidd, and Paul on the Texas Triangle/New Orleans trip in March. Underrated? We'll see if Fisher can keep up with him. Be fascinating watching the Lakers with Farmar as their main point guard.
Bill
3 months ago
I AM A LAKER FAN ! REPEAT ..I AM A LAKER FAN.....HOWEVER
BOSTON CELTICS WILL BE THE 2008 NBA CHAMPIONS. THEY WILL
BEAT MY LAKERS.....BOSTON WINS THE 2008 NBA CHAMPIOSNHIP.
OH WELL...ALL I CAN WISH IS THAT THE BIG 3 WOULDN'T SHOW UP.
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