15 Best 2009-10 NBA Fantasy Sleepers (H2H) (Final Edit)

Its been said before, but I'll say it again: when it comes to fantasy sports, you can't prepare enough for your draft. In addition to having your first 30 or so picks in order, you should have some targets for later rounds. These targets should be increasingly high risk/high reward as the rounds tick by. You won't win your league by drafting Anthony Parker in the 12th round in a 12 team format. We know his ceiling, and it will be barely fantasy worthy even if Delonte misses substantial time due to his little Desperado stunt. Use the later rounds to draft players with high upside. If they don't pan out, drop them and play the waivers, no harm done.

My sleepers are simply guys that I think will outperform their average draft position by a wide margin. This means they can range from well known guys like Jermaine O'neal to up and comers like Mario Chalmers. I have listed my favorite sleepers in order from 1 to 15. Reliability and Upside are each rated on a scale of 1-5, 5 being the best, 1 being the lowest. Their combined score can be up to 10. Get it? This isn't rocket science here... Round targets pertain to 12 team drafts. Without further ado...

1) Anthony Randolph (PF/C - Warriors)

Score: 8 (Upside 5, Reliabitlity 3)

Target Round: 6 or 7

For the sake of originality, I really didn't want to put him here. But he's just that good. This kid will be an absolute monster within the next couple years. The questions now are will his coming out party be this year, and will it be enough to live up to the massive amounts of hype? Keep in mind a) that he is only 20 years old, and b) he plays for Don Nelson. That said, I think even Nellie understands what he has here. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Randolph play 35 min a game, which could net him 18 and 11, a block and a steal or better, and good percentages. That is a fantasy beast by most measures, and his potential to have 3rd round value makes him a good pick in the 6th or 7th round.

2) Wilson Chandler (SG/SF - Knicks)

Score: 7 (Upside: 4, Reliability: 3)

Target Round: 7-8

Chandler has been getting drafted somewhere around the 8th or 9th rounds in many mock drafts. This is too late. At 22 years of age, it is really just a matter of time before this kid starts to reach his potential. This will be his third year in the league, and with the run and gun Knicks and a lack of solid offensive options, I expect to see Chandler rise to the challenge this year, and become the Knicks go to guy. 20 ppg, 1/1/1 (3s/blks/stls) and 7 rebounds a game are well within reach for this kid. Decent percentages and a few assists thrown into the mix, and you're looking at potential third round talent at a steep discount.

3) Chris Andersen (PF/C - Nuggets)

Score: 7 (Upside 3.5, Reliability 3.5)

Target Round: 10-11

As most of you probably know, the Birdman gets most of his value through his shot-blocking ability. In April '09, when he averaged 27 minutes a game over 7 games, he blocked 4 shots per game! 4 per game! Not to say that he will necessarily do that over an entire season with those kind of minutes, but that is ridiculous upside from a guy that you can snag in the 11th or even 12th round. Even if the Birdman gives you 3 blocks a game, add in 8 points and 10 boards (which is entirely possible with the expanded role he should have this year) and you have yourself a top 50 talent.

4) Jason Thompson (PF - Kings)

Score: 6.5 (Upside 4, Reliability 2.5)

Target Round: 7

You know the story. Showed huge potential last year but couldn't stay out of foul trouble. Young team that will play his ass off and give him some responsibility. I'm hoping for 15 and 10, more than a bpg, and decent percentages.

5) Mario Chalmers (PG - Heat)

Score: 6 (Upside 2.5, Reliability 3.5)

Target Round: 9-10

Chalmers put together a very effective rookie campaign, averaging 10 pts, 4.9 assts, 2 steals and 1.4 threes a game. DWade is still in town, so a lot of the ballhandling/playmaking will still be out of Chalmer's hands, but he remains the undisputed starting PG and will have a year of experience under his belt. I expect decent strides for Chalmers this year, which should leave him roughly a seventh round talent by years end.

6) Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG - Bulls)

Score: 6 (Upside 2, Reliability 4)

Target Round: 12

I would be shocked if Mr. "have you ever slept with an all American?" doesn't average 13 ppg, 4.5 assts, 1+ steal and 1.5+ threes per game with good percentages this year. Ben Gordon is out of the picture, leaving the Bulls back court extremely thin (Pargo?! Please). Even if Del Negro decides to play Deng and Salmons at the same time at some points, Hinrich should see ~35 min per game at the 1 & 2 spot. Compared to where he has been going in mock drafts (~13th round in 12 team leagues), Hinrich is a great value pick. He is also 28, meaning he should be hitting his prime.

7) Tracy McGrady (SG/SF - Rockets)

Score: 5.5 (Upside 3.5, Reliability 2)

Target Round: 8-9

After finally giving in and going to see Tim Grover, the don of knee rehab, T-Mac is apparently feeling great, and reportedly may even be ready to go opening night, something that was thought impossible just a few months ago. I don't buy that T-Mac is washed up and just wants to collect a paycheck. If you were T-mac, and had the whole world telling you that you were overpaid and a pansy, would you want to prove them right or wrong? I see T-Mac regaining much of his prior form, and giving us 6th round talent at least. Who else is going to score for this team?

8) Roy Hibbert (C - Pacers)

Score: 5.5 (Upside 3, Reliability 2.5)

Target Round: 12

He didn't exactly blow anybody away during his rookie campaign, but Hibbert was no slouch either. By April he was averaging 21 min a game, 12 ppg, 6+ rpg, and over 1.5 bpg. Stepping into a starting role this year I expect Hibbert to put up some decent numbers as he matures into a legitimate NBA starting Center.

9) Jermaine O'Neal (PF/C - Heat)

Score: 5 (Upside 3, Reliability 2)

Target Round: 10, 11

Dude is old, dude has bad knees, dude has been on the decline for a while. Still, I am optimistic: Last year he averaged 13 and 6 with two blocks and decent averages in less than 30 min a game and while significantly hobbled. He has spent this offseason improving his leg and core strength, and is apparently feeling great. I don't see his minutes going up very much, but I think his productivity could significantly. 15 and 8 with over 2 blocks per is not out of the question. This is top 100 production, easy.

10) Marc Gasol (PF/C - Grizzlies)

Score: 4.5 (Upside: 2.5, Reliability: 2)

Target Round: 11

A lot of people will likely be scared off by the arrival of Randolph and Hasheem Thabust, but have no fear: Gasol will get his. Remember when Chris Wallace said the whole point of the Pau deal was to get his younger brother? Well yeah that was a crock ($ relief was what he cared about), but Marc a valuable commodity, and for good reason--he is young and highly skilled. With a full season under his belt and a great work ethic, I expect Marc to take strides in most aspects of his game this season. Thabust will be in permanent foul trouble and ineffective at best when he's on the floor. Randolph is going to take away some boards, but with Warrick and Darko out of the picture, Gasol should see roughly the same amount of minutes, and should continue with the progress he showed as last season wore on.

11) Darko Milicic (PF/C - Knicks)

Score: 4.5 (Upside: 3, Reliability: 1.5)

Target Round: 13-14

Damn right! Darko baby its comeback time! This is his last chance to prove that he is not worthy of "biggest bust of all time" consideration, and I think this motivation, combined with D'Antoni's system and a lack of competition at center (Curry/Jeffries) could combine for a fantasy-relevant season from ol' Darko. He could finish the season with 12 and 8 and over a block with great fg%. That kind of potential warrants a shot in my book.

12) Julian Wright (SG/SF - Hornets)

Score: 4.5 (Upside: 2.5, Reliability: 2)

Target Round: 12-13

Peja is well over the hill at this point, and even with James Posey at the SF spot as well, New Orleans simply has to give ample time to one of the few guys on their team with upside. He may start slow, but I expect that Wright will gain enough minutes to be at least a 10th round value as the season goes on.

13) Kelenna Azubuike (SF - Warriors)

Score: 4.5 (Upside: 2, Reliability: 2.5)

Target Round: 12-13

With most people worried about the depth at the 2-3-4 in Golden State, Azubuike should drop to at least round 12 in your draft. He put up nice numbers last year: 14.4 ppg, 5 rpg, good percentages, .77 stl, .68 blk and over a three a game, and with Captain Jack a 50-50 to be on the team by midseason, Azubuike should get roughly the same amount of minutes this year, if not a few more. Furthermore, he is still young and has shown improvement each year thus far. I think he will produce at at least a 10th round value this year.

14) Hakim Warrick (SF/PF - Bucks)

Score: 4 (Upside (1.5), Reliability (2.5))

Target Round: 13-14

I've never liked Warrick's game from either a fantasy or pure basketball perspective, but the Bucks roster is so wide open that I can't see any way Warrick doesn't play 35 minutes a game. With those kind of minutes, and Skiles riding his ass, I think Warrick can put up upwards of 15 and 8, with the possibility of a block and a steal a game and decent percentages. These numbers are his absolute ceiling of course, but I think they are nonetheless a possibility.

15) Channing Frye (C - Suns)

Score: 4 (Upside: 3, Reliability: 1)

Target Round: 13-14

With little competition at Center in Phoenix, I expect the Suns to give Frye the benefit of the doubt and give him the bulk of the minutes at the position, with Amundson and Lopez filling in around the edges at the C and PF positions. 14 and 7 with good percentages and decent other stats are not out of the question so long as he can perform well enough out the gate to keep his minutes.

Honorable Mentions

Allen Iverson (PG/SG - Grizzlies)
Iverson lost all his drive last season, and as a result was pretty worthless from a fantasy perspective. Still, he is only one season removed from averaging 26 points, seven dimes, and two steals a game. He is going around the 10th or 11th rounds in most mocks that I've seen, and that is simply too late. I'm targeting A.I. in the 8-9th.

Troy Murphy (PF - Pacers)
This guy was a fantasy monster last year (Ranked 15 in Yahoo! totals 08-09), but he is falling past the third round in many drafts. I'll be taking him late third/early fourth and looking forward to top 20 production.

John Salmons (SG/SF - Bulls)
For whatever reason, proper respect continues to elude John Salmons. Bummer for him, good for you. Draft him in the 6th or 7th and expect 4th round returns.

Ramon Sessions (PG/SG - Timberwolves)
The perennial "sleeper" candidate, Sessions is finally in a situation where he will be receiving starters minutes (even if he doesn't in fact start) and I expect to see his numbers rise accordingly. I'll start looking at Sessions in the 8th round.

J.R. Smith (SG - Nuggets)
Made 4.7 threes per game through 7 games in April. Does he put it all together this season? Chances are against it in my mind, but the chance that he does should bump his value higher than round 8, where he has been going.