CLEMSON (-2.5) 20 #15 TCU 16
I had Clemson rated as the ACC's top team heading into this season and they have played as well as expected defensively (4.0 yppl allowed). However, the Tigers have been inconsistent offensively and have averaged just 4.9 yppl in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average team.
Now the Tigers have to take on a TCU defense that was the 2nd best in the nation last season (behind USC) and should be nearly as good this season.
It's tough to say just how good TCU's defense is given that they've played just two games and both were against bad offensive teams, but they only yielded 3.9 yppl in those games against Virginia and Texas Southern and Clemson will probably struggle today.
However, TCU's slightly better than average attack will also struggle to move the ball against the Tigers' strong defense and Clemson applies to a 71-23-4 ATS momentum situation. My ratings only favor Clemson by 1 point, but I'll lean with the Tigers based on the situation and I expect a low scoring game.
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