Picking the Mountain West Conference Games: Week Four

New Mexico hosts New Mexico St. after facing three tough opponents; losing handily to Texas A&M on the road, then dropping home games to Tulsa and Air Force.

What positives can New Mexico take from the first three weeks? At least they are improving, losing by 35, 34, and 24, respectively. It really has been a horrible start for new head coach Mike Locksley.

But now, New Mexico gets to play a team that might be even worse than they are. They are favored by seven at home.

So I will take New Mexico (-7) to win and cover the spread against New Mexico State.

Air Force has looked great so far this year, blowing out two bottom feeders and coming oh so close to pulling off the road upset at Minnesota.

Air Force's option attack already has 1,000 yards rushing for the year on over 200 rushes. They have only attempted 31 passes in three games so far.

San Diego State, on the other hand, is breaking in a new coach and is 1-2; beating Southern Utah but losing road games to Idaho and UCLA.

Air Force is favored by 19 in this game.

I will pick Air Force to win, but San Diego State (+19) to cover the spread (barely) against a superior Air Force team.

UNLV has gotten off to a good start in 2009, starting 2-1 with a blowout win against a cupcake team, a close loss against Oregon State, and a close win against Hawaii.

UNLV's greatest strength has to be its receivers. Ryan Wolfe and Phillip Payne (whose one handed grab against No. 14 ASU last year helped UNLV pull off a dramatic upset) are studs.

Wyoming is off to a 1-2 start. They barely beat Weber State, lost to Colorado, and kept it close with Texas for a half. They were actually leading 10-6 late in the second quarter against the Longhorns, who eventually won 41-10.

Wyoming almost always has a chance to win up in Laramie and UNLV is untested on the road. UNLV has lost 19 straight road conference games. Their last victory was Oct. 8, 2004 at BYU, almost five years ago.

UNLV is favored by six in this one. Again, I like UNLV to win, but Wyoming(+6) to cover the spread.

The longest win streak in the nation ended last week as Utah fell for the first time in 16 games. Utah has not looked impressive so far in 2009, struggling a little against Utah State and San Jose State.

Now comes Big East opponent Louisville. But, that same Louisville team that was so dominant with Bobby Petrino is struggling to win games under Steve Kragthorpe.

Utah is a 12.5 point favorite in this one.

I expect Utah (-12.5) to win the game and cover the spread here. '

Utah has repeatedly blown out BCS opponents at home, even when they've had "down" years with eight or nine-win seasons.

TCU has Jerry Hughes, one of the best players in the country, on what should be one of the best defenses in the country.

They have won three games convincingly against cupcake competition (yes, I'm counting ACC opponent Virginia as a cupcake).

TCU rolls into town as a top 15 team and a road underdog against 2-1 Clemson, who narrowly fell to Georgia Tech.

Clemson is a 1.5 point favorite in this one.

I expect to TCU (+1.5) to win and cover the spread.

BYU hosts Colorado State after getting their hopes of an undefeated season and (perhaps) a BCS title game appearance shattered by Florida State.

Colorado State is off to a 3-0 start. The question here is what BYU team will show up? The one that couldn't stop Florida State until the third quarter? Or the team that beat Oklahoma and Tulane?

BYU is an 18 point favorite in this one and has the potential to blow out Colorado State.

I like BYU to win in this game, but not by 18+, so I will take CSU (+18) to cover the spread. A blowout win here would really help BYU's confidence. Let's hope the bookies are right and BYU does win by 18.

Here is a short summary of my picks in one convenient place:

New Mexico (-7) to win and cover the spread over New Mexico State.

Air Force to win, but San Diego State (+19) to cover the spread.

UNLV to win, but Wyoming (+6) to cover the spread.

Utah (-12.5) to win and cover the spread over Louisville.

TCU (+1.5) to win and cover the spread over Clemson.

BYU to win, but Colorado State (+18) to cover the spread.

Please post your own picks, both winners straight up and against the spread. I will keep track off all those who post across the rest of the season. The winner will get a column dedicated to them at the end of the season.

Good luck!

On this last, special bonus slide, I will let chance— virtue of a quarter— pick the Mountain West games against the spread.

Underdog=Tails and Favorite=Heads.

New Mexico State at New Mexico. Tails. That means New Mexico State (+7).

San Diego State at Air Force. Heads. That means Air Force (-19).

UNLV at Wyoming. Tails. That means Wyoming (+6).

Louisville at Utah. Tails. That means Louisville (+12.5).

TCU at Clemson. Tails. That means TCU (+1.5).

Colorado State at BYU. Heads. That means BYU (-18).

Alright! Let's see who wins! Man or quarter?

Can you beat a quarter? See if you can by posting your picks below!