September 25, 2009
I wasn't going to post my weekend predictions, but after hearing everyone tell me what a great play Ole Miss was Thursday, and me saying South Carolina was the correct pick, I felt like I had to share my favorite picks against the spread for the weekend. By the way, why was South Carolina the pick? Because people in Vegas are smarter than any of us so when it looks too good to be true, it always is. I'm a numbers guy, so you won't see much player-to-player analysis, it will be more about numbers that I like. I've started this season at almost a 70 percent clip without posting, so I'm sure it won't be pretty now that I'm actually sharing with others. But enjoy the read, and if my success continues, I'll continue posting. These are by time of game, not degree of like. I like them all or I wouldn't consider it my best picks of the weekend.
Missouri -7.5 Nevada has been outscored 35-0 by Notre Dame and 35-20 by Colorado State.Mizzou is 3-0 with nobody talking about them and a decent win over Illinois. Yes, it's Nevada's home opener and ESPN game, but to take a 7-point dog, I have to believe they can win this game and don't see it here. There is nothing I hate more than some sports radio telling you to take an underdog because they'll lose by 7 and they're getting 10. If I don't believe the dog can win the game outright, it's not one of my top picks and Nevada has a better reputation than team this season.
Ga Tech -3- Best time to play a team is after tough loss. UNC has played nobody and struggled with UConn while this is Tech's 3rd big game and had 10 days to prepare. Even teams, take the home team with small spread.
Michigan- -20- Michigan has covered all three weeks and didn't play well on defense last week against Eastern Michigan and still covered. Think you'll see a much better effort this week and three touchdowns is not that many when playing a bad team.
Arkansas +17 and Over 58 parlay- One of my favorite situations with Arkansas this week. You're getting a lot of points with a high scoring team. I had the exact same situation earlier in the season when Michigan State and Central Michigan played. If Arkansas covers, it's going to be 38-28, not 27-20 because the Razorbacks play no defense but can score. So we're taking an even bet and paying 2.5 by parlaying it. Alabama can win 42-21 or 38-0; it doesn't matter, you still lose but if Arkansas covers, I can almost guarantee it goes over because Bama should get its 35 points.
Miami-2.5- This is exactly opposite of Ga Tech so every fundamental points to Va Tech at home. You have everyone high on Miami after a dominating performance, going on road. The problem, Virginia Tech just isn't that good. Nebraska should have beat them last week and Miami is just playing too well right now.
Houston -2- This line baffles me. Houston has a very good team and playing a Tech team coming off a physical tough loss to Texas. Maybe I'm missing something because this looks too easy for the Cougars playing at home (and yes, Vegas is smarter than me, but at least I get a home team here and it's not a national spotlight game like South Carolina and Ole Miss)