Plus:
1. Semyon Varlamov: The young goalie who had his coming out party in the ’09 postseason will be starting in net for the first time in the regular season. Will he respond the same way in an 82-game regular season as he did in a shortened playoff run? I think so. Key stat: Varlamov had a .918 save percentage and a 2.53 GAA in the Caps’ playoff run.
2. Ovie and the Caps: Consistently a powerful team in the new NHL, Ovechkin leads this talented team that will simply dominate the weakest division in the NHL (yeah, I said it). Key stat: Ovechkin was tied for the league lead in playoff points per game in 2008-09.
Minus:
1. Depth: The Caps are missing depth. That is clear, as they were beaten by a Pittsburgh team that was simply built for playoff hockey; talent mixed with grit. Washington lost Donald Brashear and they don’t have much talent past the first-and-a-half lines. If they want to succeed in the postseason, they need to continue to make some moves.
2. Offseason moves: True, they signed Mike Knuble, a reliable player who can create traffic in front of the net. But will signing him and Brendan Morrison to contracts really help the depth that they crave and replace Sergei Fedorov who bolted to Russia?
Analysis: Washington is a “victim” of playing in an extremely weak division. By reigning atop the Southeast Division, they are inflating their point total and making it seem like they are better than they truly are. Don’t get me wrong, they are incredibly talented. But not so incredible that they are actually the best team in the Eastern Conference. They will finish up there because of their schedule.
Prediction: 1st in Southeast, 1st in East.
Plus:
1. Offseason moves: Signing Mattias Ohlund and drafting Victor Hedman were two very good moves by the Lightning. The decision not to trade Vincent Lecavalier will also help Tampa Bay in the long run. Even if they decide to move him this year (at the deadline, perhaps), they will garner more in return from a team desperately in need of a superstar to help them in their playoff run. Key stat: Tampa Bay dished out six contracts this summer worth a combined $36.475 million over 15 years.
2. Defense: With Ohlund, Hedman, Meszaros and Ranger on defense, they are not so much the best team in the East on the blueline, but they have some talent. This year will be a training/learning year for Hedman so he can adjust to the NHL game, but look for him and Ohlund to be paired together for a good few years. Key stat: Last year’s top five Tampa Bay D-men (statistically) had a combined minus-21 rating—hardly a bad stat for a 14th place team.
Minus:
1. Goaltending: Mike Smith is not a starting NHL goalie. It is that simple. Antero Niittymaki hasn’t been good for years. This is simple, too. Tampa’s goaltending has been flat ever since Nikolai Khabibulin left a few years ago. They need to fix it now.
2. Coaching: I personally do not believe Rick Tocchet is the person to lead an NHL team. True, he got Steven Stamkos rolling after Barry Melrose left, but come on, now. Any competent coach could make Stamkos successful. Hence the reason he struggled under Melrose.
Analysis: A team that could surprise a lot of people, they’re defense is much improved. However, I’m still not sold on this team. I believe they will fight for a playoff spot until late-March when they are mathematically eliminated. They are in an easy division, but a tough conference (and league for that matter). Even with Lecavalier and St. Louis, this team is missing tons of players to revert to the contenders they were in the pre-lockout days.
Prediction: 3rd in Southeast, 11th in East.
Plus:
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