ARKANSAS ST. (-2.0) 27 Troy State 21
Troy has been the dominant team in the Sun Belt the last few years but Arkansas State may be the team to beat this season. The Red Wolves have the league's best running back in Reggie Arnold, a veteran quarterback in Corey Leonard, and the league's best defense.
Troy usually has the Sun Belt's best defense, but they've had to replace their entire secondary and I rate their stop unit just behind Arkansas State's. Troy's offense finally came to life last week against a bad UAB defense, but they struggled against a solid Bowling Green defense (just 4.7 yards per play) and I rate the Trojans' attack at 0.3 yppl worse than average.
These teams are actually pretty even overall thanks to Troy's advantage in special teams, but I'll lean with Arkansas State based on a negative 4-20 ATS subset of an 18-41 ATS game 4 angle that applies to Troy.
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