Dr. Bob Previews CHARGERS (-6) Vs. DOLPHINS

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Dr. Bob Previews CHARGERS (-6) Vs. DOLPHINS
(Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO (-6.0) 28 Miami 21
Over/Under Total: 44.0
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-27

I played Miami to win under 7 1/2 games before the start of the season, as I had the Dolphins as the league's 5th worst team in my ratings. Nothing has changed my opinion about the Dolphins after two games, as they've been out-gained 4.8 yards per play to 6.6 yppl by the Falcons and Colts.

Both of those teams are better than average, but an average team would only be out-gained by about 0.6 yppl by Atlanta and Indy. San Diego hasn't looked that impressive either, barely beating Oakland in week 1 and losing at home to Baltimore last week. However, the Chargers have out-gained their opponents 6.2 yppl to 5.6 yppl and my ratings project a 6.8 yppl to 5.4 yppl advantage for San Diego in this game and a 13 point win.

Unfortunately the Chargers apply to a negative 36-92-1 ATS situation while Miami applies to a 57-17-2 ATS statistical indicator. The technical analysis favoring Miami will keep me off the Chargers as a Best Bet but I'll still lean with San Diego.

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