New York is 2-0 with wins over the Redskins and Cowboys, but it's odd that the Giants haven't been able to run the ball on offense (3.7 ypr) and haven't been able to stop the run on defense (6.7 ypr allowed). Stopping the run is a concern in this game, as the Bucs have a good rushing attack with 3 good backs in Cadillac Williams, former Giant Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham, who have combined to run for 217 yards at a robust 4.9 ypr.
Home underdogs that can run the ball are usually pretty good bets, but Tampa Bay's defense is a mess right now after switching from years of playing the Cover 2 scheme that was the hallmark for years of good defense in Tampa. The confused Bucs have allowed 5.7 ypr and 9.3 yards per pass play and Eli Manning should be able to take advantage given how well he's playing (8.5 yppp).
My ratings favor the Giants by 8 points in a high scoring game, but New York applies to a negative 24-63-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win over division rival Dallas. I can see this game going either way, but I'll lean with the Bucs based on the situation.
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