Dr. Bob Previews TEXANS (-3.5) Vs. JAGUARS

Robert StollCorrespondent ISeptember 24, 2009

NASHVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 20:  Steve Slaton #20 of the Houston Texans runs with the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the NFL game at LP Field on September 20, 2009 in Nashville, Tennessee. The Texans won 34-31.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 26
Over/Under Total: 47.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-27

This will be a battle between Jacksonville's rushing attack and Houston's pass attack and both teams should be able to move the ball. Jaguars' running back Maurice Jones-Drew has averaged a healthy 4.8 ypr in the first two games and should have his best game yet against a bad Houston run defense that gave up 240 rushing yards at 9.2 ypr last week and 196 rushing yards at 4.9 ypr to the Jets in week 1.

Houston also has trouble defending the pass, allowing 7.4 yards per pass play, so Jags' quarterback David Garrard may snap out of his funk (just 52% completions).

Houston can counter with the aerial exploits of quarterback Matt Schaub and star WR Andre Johnson going up against a bad Jaguars' secondary that was bad against the pass last season and has surrendered 7.9 yppp to the Colts and Cardinals (which is still bad even when you compensate for the high level of opposing QB's faced).

Both teams should be able to move the ball well and my ratings favor Houston by 4 1/2 points in this game, but I'll side with the Jaguars based on a 70-32-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator.

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