The Titans have started the season with two close losses, the last of which a 31-34 upset loss as a 6 1/2 point favorite against the Texans last week. Underdogs that are coming off a straight up loss as a favorite of more than 6 points are 134-78-8 ATS over the years, so the Titans are likely to play with a lot of intensity this week.
The Jets, meanwhile, are 2-0 after upset wins at Houston and at home against the rival Patriots, so this could be a letdown week for them, especially defensively. Teams that allow less than 10 points in consecutive wins are just 71-110-1 ATS as favorites the next week and the Jets apply to a negative 27-77 ATS subset of that situation.
Tennessee also applies to a solid 88-45-4 ATS statistical indicator, so the technical analysis is strongly in favor of the Titans in this game.
The problem is the line. My ratings prior to the season would have favored the Jets by 2 points at home against Tennessee and my updated ratings favor the Jets by 6 1/2 points. New York is clearly underrated (my ratings also favored the Jets by 1 point over New England last week) with a better than average offense and a very good defense that has allowed just 4.2 yards per play to two very good offensive teams (Houston and New England). Tennessee, meanwhile, has allowed an average of 339 passing yards at 7.9 yards per pass play in their two games, so Mark Sanchez may have another impressive outing today.
I'll have to lean with New York at -2 1/2 or less based on the line value, but a Titans' victory wouldn't surprise me based on the technical analysis.
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