Kansas City is 4-1 both straight up and against the spread over its last five AFC West meetings with Oakland, but the Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Arrowhead Stadium. In the 111th edition of a classic old AFL rivalry, the playoff-bound Chiefs host Oakland Sunday.
Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.1-14.0 Chiefs
Why the Raiders can cover the spread
The Raiders gave longtime fan favorite Charles Woodson a victory in his final game at the Black Hole last week, beating San Diego in overtime 23-20. Oakland trailed almost the entire game, finally took a lead with five minutes to go, then won it in the extra period on a Sebastian Janikowski field goal and a defensive stop.
For the night, the Raiders outrushed the Chargers 106-72, so that's four times in their last five games they've won the ground battle. They also won three of those games.
At 7-8, Oakland can finish at .500 for the first time in five seasons with a victory this week. Finally, the Raiders are 6-4 ATS this season as underdogs, 3-0 ATS when getting six points or more.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Kansas City, along with Arizona, now owns the longest winning streak in the league at nine games, following last week's 17-13 grinder over Cleveland. The Chiefs also clinched a playoff berth with the victory and are still alive in the battle for the AFC West title.
Kansas City grabbed an early 10-0 lead on the Browns, led 17-3 at the half, then held on from there, stopping Cleveland twice on potential scoring drives in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs actually got outrushed and outgained by the Browns, but that was only the third time that's happened this season.
Also, even though Kansas City couldn't cover last week as an 11-point favorite, it is 7-4 ATS this season when giving points, 7-1 ATS when giving fewer than 10 points.
The Raiders are coming off an emotional victory in what might have been their last game ever in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Chiefs may have won last week, but it was not one of their better performances. So the Raiders might be ripe for a letdown, while Kansas City still has a shot at a division title. The smart choice here is the Chiefs.
The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Chiefs.
The Raiders are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Chiefs.
The Raiders are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after a win.