Indianapolis (-3.0) 24 MIAMI 20

05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Sep-21

Miami entered the season as one of the most overrated teams in the NFL after going from 1-15 to 11-5 last season.

The Dolphins actually played better than expected in gaining and allowing 4.6 yards per play at Atlanta, only to lose 7-19 due to 3 lost fumbles and a -4 in turnover margin.

The Colts, meanwhile, out-gained the Jaguars 5.5 yppl to 4.1 yppl but won only 14-12 due to a -2 in turnovers.

My ratings favor the Colts by 4 1/2 points in this game and the technical analysis favors both sides as Miami applies to a 100-36-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Miami applies to a negative 35-81-2 ATS week 2 angle. I'll lean with Indy at -3 or less.


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