Power Ranking MLB's 6 Divisions by Predicted 2nd-Half Excitement

It’s official.

The second half of the Major League Baseball season is underway, or the post-All-Star break portion of the season for the technical types.

With this part of the year comes renewed excitement. The division races heat up through the non-waiver trade deadline this month, the waiver trade market in August and the stretch run in September. With at least one team in every division within striking distance of the leader, it makes the final two-plus months of the regular season ripe with intrigue.

Just how much is yet to be determined, but based on the standings, current roster construction and potential trade deadline moves, we can get a decent indication of which divisions will be the most thrilling in the second half.

Ranking them from having the least potential excitement to the most, here is where the six divisions fall.

6. American League Central

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Entering the season, this division had the potential to be contested by the most teams. At least fair cases could be made that the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals all could contend at the top of the standings. 

Through the first half, all of those clubs except the Royals have struggled to get to .500. Kansas City now holds a nine-game lead over the Tigers, the closest of that group, with the underestimated Minnesota Twins sitting in second place at 4.5 games behind.

The Twins starting pitching has been OK and the offense has been mostly bad. They are 31-16 at home, but it is reasonable to expect some correction in the second half.

As for the rest, they are either not good enough, too injured or both to make a serious charge at the Royals. With Miguel Cabrera expected to be out until August, the Tigers might end up being sellers at the deadline. If they are, David Price is their most coveted asset, and moving him could start to rebuild their barren farm system.

The Royals lack significant starting pitching, but that can be addressed at the deadline by landing an arm like Johnny Cueto. Their offense and defense are good and great, respectively, and that should be enough to carry them through the second half without being seriously threatened.

5. National League West

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

For much of the first half, this was an intriguing division. The Los Angeles Dodgers have led for most of it, but the San Francisco Giants have been a serious threat since undergoing an ugly 4-10 start.

However, the Giants stumbled again going into the All-Star break. They lost eight of 12—they swept the Philadelphia Phillies before the break, but that might not be saying too much—and saw their one-game deficit stretch to 4.5 entering their weekend series in Arizona.

Injuries to Hunter Pence and Nori Aoki have kept the offense from being better, which is pretty good—as their 109 wRC+ indicates. Still, injuries in the lineup are a concern going into the second half, but not just in the lineup.

Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson are on the disabled list, making way for Matt Cain and Jake Peavy. Cain gave the team six shutout innings in his last outing and Peavy went seven innings and allowed one earned run in his last. Both those starts came against the anemic New York Mets, but they were both promising. 

The Giants might be running into an idling buzz saw, though. The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball, and Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke might be the best 1-2 rotation combination in the game, especially with Kershaw putting everything together in his nine outings before the break.

The Dodgers are expected to be active on the trade market, and if they can land a big-name starter—they have scouted Cole Hamels and the Phillies have scouted their players—they will be good enough to run away with the division.

“I think we’re open-minded on every front,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters. “But starting pitching depth is certainly front and center as it was last offseason, as it will be next offseason. It’s something we’re always going to be mindful of. But two guys going down [Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu] just increases that for us.

“We’re scouting a lot of different pitchers—mid-tier guys, top-tier guys. … So we’ve cast a pretty wide net.”

4. National League East

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

This division is loaded with “ifs,” starting and ending with the Washington Nationals rotation.

If Jordan Zimmermann can give the team a second half that more resembles his 2014 season rather than his first half of 2015, the Nats are in great shape with him and Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation.

If Stephen Strasburg can return from his oblique injury at some point in the next month and be the pitcher he was since coming off his first DL stint of the season—a 6.55 ERA before his first injury (neck), and a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 innings after—the Nats could boast the best three-pronged pitching attack in the league. 

It would also be a huge help if Doug Fister could find some consistency and be a bonus fourth starter.

That would certainly separate them from the New York Mets, who came out of the break two games back but with an almost nonexistent offense and an injured rotation. The Mets wanted to use a six-man rotation for the second half but Steven Matz’s lat injury is putting a halt to that plan.

If the Mets are going to have any chance to keep up with Washington through September, they need Matz healthy and effective, along with the rest of their arms.

“I think we have a good chance at it," Mets All-Star right-hander Jacob deGrom told Marc Carig of Newsday. "If we keep pitching well, and we get some key hits when we need them, I think we have a chance.”

Again, that’s a lot of ifs, but the Nationals are deep enough to win the division without all of theirs coming together. The Mets are not.

3. American League West

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Here is where the real excitement should kick in. The surprising Houston Astros held the top spot in the division for most of the first half, but they faded toward the end by losing eight of their last nine and seeing their five-game lead turn into a half-game deficit in about a week.

This is still a good club, though. Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers could be a nasty combination in the rotation and the lineup is highly powerful and effective despite the highest strikeout rate in the majors. Their strong bullpen went into the break with a WHIP just over 1.00, making it one of the best in the league.

The Los Angeles Angels won 11 of 14 entering the break. Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are among the most productive hitters in the league, and the starters’ 3.71 ERA is third-lowest.

Because the teams seem to be evenly matched, this division could be decided by what goes down before the July 31 trade deadline. The Astros are looking for a starter and could be in on Cincinnati Reds ace Johnny Cueto, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The Angels are looking for lineup help, and before the All-Star break they engaged the A’s about Ben Zobrist and Josh Reddick, although Zobrist is the more likely guy to be moved, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

Rarely does a move at the deadline completely decide a race, but this one is tight enough that it could be the deciding factor going into August.

2. National League Central

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

There was a time nearly two weeks ago when this division looked decided. The St. Louis Cardinals led it by nine games and were surging with the best record in the majors.

Four consecutive losses followed, however. Then they went into the break having been swept out of Pittsburgh—the final two losses were walk-offs—and just like that the Pirates chopped the lead to 2.5 games entering this weekend. Of course that required a hot stretch by the Pirates outside of just that sweep, which they produced by winning 13 of 16 to end the first half.

“It made the flight [into the All-Star break] a lot easier,” Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “That’s for sure.”

Corrections should fix both extremes, but that only means this division will turn into a dogfight. The teams have nine games against each other remaining, and to this point they have split the 10 they’ve played.

The Chicago Cubs could prove to be a spoiler for one of these clubs since they have 15 combined games to play against them, but they don’t have a realistic shot at overtaking both to win the division. A wild-card spot is certainly in play.

These three teams will fight it out through September, and this is a division that might not be decided until the final week of play.

1. American League East

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

This is the only division in baseball where all five teams are a hot streak away from sniffing the top of the standings, and in the case of the New York Yankees, they might be a hot one away from making themselves the runaway favorites.

The Boston Red Sox are in last place but just 6.5 games out of first. The Tampa Bay Rays are 3.5 back, the Baltimore Orioles are four out and the Toronto Blue Jays and their AL-best plus-82 run differential are 4.5 behind New York.

That is quite the bottleneck, but the Yankees do seem to be the most complete team. They can mix decent starting pitching with an effective bullpen and a pretty good offense, which is third in the league with a 106 wRC+.

The Rays have the best starting pitching. The Blue Jays have a dynamite offense. The Orioles can pitch out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, the Red Sox haven’t done much of anything except disappoint their fanbase, yet they are still breathing without life support.

That likely means every team in this division will be looking to add pieces at the trade deadline. The problem is teams like the Yankees and Red Sox don’t have much in the way of desirable assets to send back unless they decide to part with young talent, which is something neither team has been willing to do since last offseason.

This is not an easy division to predict, but it is easy to believe it will be the most exciting over the next two-and-a-half months.