2008 French Open Picks: Bet on Rafael Nadal

Lee beat Canas in straight sets at the US Open last year, but I think it will be a different story on Canas’ favorite surface.

 

Nova Djokovic (3) def. Miguel Angel Lopez Jaen

The qualifier shouldn’t be any match for last year’s semi-finalist.

 

David Nalbandian (6) def. Frederico Gil

Nalbandian destroyed Gil 6-1, 6-2 on clay in 2006.

 

Dmitry Tursunov (30) def. Sergio Roitman

Roitman’s never won a match here. I’ll give him one, but not two. Tursunov reaches the third round like he did in 2006.

 

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. Olivier Rochus

Almagro has made the second round three straight years. With a 27-9 record this season, I think 2008 will be the year he breaks through to the third round.

 

Jose Acasuso def. Andy Murray (10)

Acasuso won three matches during the 2005 French Open. That’s three more than Murray’s won here in his life.

 

Mikhail Youzhny (15) def. Maximo Gonzalez

Youzhny reached the fourth round here in 2007. He should be able to get past a guy who hasn’t won a tour match this year.

 

Fernando Verdasco (22) def. Juan Ignacio Chela

This could be the best match of the second round. They’ve split six lifetime meetings, with Chela holding a 3-2 advantage on clay, but Verdasco won their first round clash at the 2006 French Open. The Spaniard has had more recent success at Roland Garros, so I’m going to give him the nod in what should be a tight five setter.

 

Jarko Nieminen (26) def. Martin Vassallo Arguello

The Argentine is 1-7 this year, so Nieminen should be able to slip by.

 

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Chris Guccione

Guccione actually has a 1-0 career record against Nadal after the second-ranked player retired in the first set of a match they played in Sydney last year. But this is the French Open, and Rafa doesn’t lose here.

 

 

THIRD ROUND

 

Roger Federer (1) def. Mario Ancic

Federer holds a 4-1 lifetime record versus Ancic, including a straight set victory at the ’06 French.

 

Juan Monaco (13) def. Ivo Karlovic (20)

Karlovic should be pleased with his first third round appearance at the French, but he won’t go any further.

 

Fernando Gonzalez (24) def. Stanislas Wawrinka (9)

When did Wawrinka become a top ten player? It won’t matter here because Gonzalez holds a 4-0 lifetime record head-to-head with the Swiss player, with all of the matches coming in 2006.

 

Igor Andreev (27) def. Victor Hanescu

This should be a great match. They’ve split a pair of career clay court meetings and both have reached the quarterfinals of this event. The only difference is that Andreev did it last year, while Hanescu hasn’t won a match at the French since turning the trick back in 2005.

 

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. Ivan Ljubicic (28)

They’ve split six career meetings, but Davydenko has won both of the matches contested on clay, including a 6-4, 6-1 drubbing in Hamburg this year.

 

Juan Carlos Ferrero (23) def. Gael Monfils

I say Ferrero gets back to the fourth round for the first time since he won the whole thing back in 2003.

 

Tommy Robredo (12) def. Radek Stepanek (21)

Stepanek won the last meeting, but Robredo won the previous five, including all three played on clay.

 

David Ferrer (5) def. Lleyton Hewitt (25)

Hewitt hasn’t played a single match on clay this year. Not a good way to tune up for the French.

 

Janko Tipsarevic (32) def. James Blake (7)

Tipsarevic already beat Blake on clay this year and he should do it again next week.

 

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Marcos Baghdatis (17)

They have similar credentials, but Berdych is playing slightly better this year.

 

Carlos Moya (16) def. Paul Henri-Mathieu (18)

Mathieu hasn’t reached the fourth round since 2002. He won’t get back there this year going up against the 1998 champ.

 

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Guillermo Canas (29)

Djokovic has won both career meetings, but they were both on hard courts. Still, the number three player in the world is good enough on all surfaces to beat Canas for a third time.

 

David Nalbandian (6) def. Dmitry Tursunov (30)

Nalbandian came back from two sets down to beat Tursunov in this round at the ’06 French. Expect a similar result here.

 

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. Jose Acasuso

Almagro has won the last six meetings, including five straight on clay.

 

Fernando Verdasco (22) def. Mikhail Youzhny (15)

Verdasco won easily during a previous meeting on clay this year.

 

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Jarkko Nieminen (26)

Nadal’s 4-0 lifetime against the Fin, including two matches on clay.

 

FOURTH ROUND

 

Roger Federer (1) def. Juan Monaco (13)

Federer beat Monaco on clay just last year.

 

Igor Andreev (27) def. Fernando Gonzalez (24)

I feel a little uncomfortable picking a Russian to beat a player from Chile on clay, but since he did it twice last year, I’m going to go ahead and do it.

 

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. Juan Carlos Ferrero (23)

Two Russians in the quarters of the French?  Sure, when Davydenko has been there twice in the past three years.

 

David Ferrer (5) def. Tommy Robredo (12)

Ferrer’s won the last three meetings with two being on clay this year.

 

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Janko Tipsarevic (32)

Berdych has never been to the quarters here, but Tipsarevic has never even reached the round of 16.

 

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Carlos Moya (16)

They’ve split four career matches with each winning one on clay and one on hard courts.  Djokovic beat the elder Moya in straights at last year’s US Open and I think he’ll do the same here. Beat him, that is, not necessarily in straight sets.

 

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. David Nalbandian (6)

They’ve played four sets on clay this year.  Almagro has won them all.

 

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Fernando Verdasco (22)

Another guy Nadal’s never lost to.

 

 

QUARTER FINALS

 

Roger Federer (1) def. Igor Andreev (27)

Federer beat Andreev on clay in 2004. He’s also the best player in the world.  That’s enough for me.

 

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. David Ferrer (5)

Davydenko beat Ferrer last year.  I say he does it again to reach the semis for the second straight year.

 

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Tomas Berdych (11)

Berdych’s run ends here as Djokovic returns to the semis.

 

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Nicolas Almagro (19)

Nadal completes the dream final four with his third clay win over Almagro in three tries.

 

SEMI-FINALS

 

Roger Federer (1) def. Nikolay Davydenko (4)

12 career meetings. 12 wins for Federer. Make it 13.

 

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Novak Djokovic (3)

Nadal just beat Novak on clay in Hamburg. Look for him to do it again.

 

FINALS

 

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Roger Federer (1)

Federer picked up his first career win on clay over Nadal last year, but since then, Rafa has taken two more clay finals at Monte Carlo and Hamburg in 2008. It would be a great story if Roger, mired in his worst year since becoming the top player in the world, could somehow beat his nemesis to complete the lifetime Grand Slam and supplant his spot as the greatest player of all time. I hope it happens, but I don’t think it will. 

 

Until someone beats Nadal at the French, I’m picking him to go all the way every time. Look for the same result as the last two years: Nadal over Federer in the French Open final. Rafael takes home his fourth straight Roland Garros title.

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