Dave's Free College Football Pick ATS: Bowling Green at No. 25 Missouri

dave darbySenior Analyst ISeptember 10, 2009

ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 5: Blaine Gabbert #11 of the University of Missouri Tigers passes against the University of Illinois Fighting Illini during the State Farm Arch Rivalry on September 5, 2009 at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri.  The Tigers beat the Fighting Illini 37-9.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Bowling Green (1-0) at No. 25 Missouri (1-0)

Line: Missouri -20

First year Bowling Green head coach Dave Clawson is 1-0 after guiding the Falcons to a 31-14 victory over Troy in the first week of the season. Bowling Green took to the air for 339 yards with Freddie Barnes hauling down 15 catches for 157 yards and two scores.

A focal point of practice this week is likely to center around the ground game, which moved just 50 yards on 28 carries.

The Falcons held Troy to just two yards per carry and 41 overall. Forcing Troy to the air produced a couple of interceptions, one resulting in a return for a score.

Missouri could not have played any better in its opening match against Illinois. The Tigers were nearly flawless in every area of the game, which they won, 37-9. The defense played great, Blaine Gabbert looked like Chase Daniel with more mobility, and Danario Alexander was making folks forget that Jeremy Maclin is no longer with the team.

Even the kicking game was on fire with field goals of 31, 41, and 44 yards. This game has many rethinking their pecking order in the Big 12 North.

I, like everyone else, was impressed with the Missouri showing last week; however, I am not completely sold that Missouri is much better than a 6-6 record team. Illinois is not a very good football team and was missing several of its play-makers.

I'm happy for the Tiger fans and I know Memorial Stadium will be rocking Saturday night, but I'm not going to predict a Missouri romp here. Bowling Green is 5-0 against the spread in its last five road games and Missouri is just 2-5 against the number in its last seven games overall. 

This one may be close, but I'll take the points.

Dave's Pick: Bowling Green +20