San Francisco 49ers: What Can We Expect from Anquan Boldin in 2015?

One of the best ways to predict future production for veteran players is through the use of Football Outsiders' similarity scores. The theory seems sound: If two players had similar stats and production over the past few seasons at the same age and with the same basic body type, then the odds are that they will continue to have similar stats and production in the future.

We’ve used this method of projecting players twice this offseason for the San Francisco 49ers. We came up with a fairly optimistic projection for Colin Kaepernick, with top comparable players including Ben Roethlisberger, Steve McNair and Jim Zorn. We found that players similar to Vernon Davis often have a minor bounce-back season if they return for another year, comparing him to players such as Miles Austin, Sonny Randle and Leslie Shepherd.

Today, let’s look at the most veteran of all veteran players on the 49ers’ offense: Anquan Boldin. Entering his 13th season in the NFL, Boldin has been seemingly immune to the effects of time. While his 2014 season wasn’t as effective on a per-play basis as his 2013 season was, he was still an above-average starter at an age when most receivers are headed for retirement.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

In San Francisco, Boldin has put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. That’s the first time he’s done that since his days in Arizona in 2007 and 2008 and only the third time he’s ever put up back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns. His 2013 season, in fact, might have been the best of his career—he had more yards and receptions as a young player in Arizona, but he made a ton of clutch catches on third down and in the red zone.

Was the slight step down in 2014 a sign that aging has begun to catch up to him? Or was it just a regular fluctuation based on the team as a whole stepping back? By looking at players who had similar runs to Boldin’s 2012-14 stretch, we can try to answer that question.

Simply because it’s hard to succeed at all in your mid-30s in the NFL, Boldin’s comparisons are an impressive list, including Hall of Famers Michael Irvin, Tim Brown, Charlie Joiner and Art Monk. It also includes Boldin's performances from 2011 to 2013, meaning he's been consistent over the last half-decade. I’ve included the entire top 300 in a Google document, but here are the top 25 comparable players.

Player	Year	Age	Team	Rec	Yds	TD
Rod Smith	2003-2005	35	DEN	85	1105	6
Tony Martin	1997-1999	34	MIA	67	1037	5
Derrick Mason	2006-2008	34	BAL	80	1037	5
Donald Driver	2007-2009	34	GNB	70	1061	6
J.T. Smith	1986-1988	33	PHO	83	986	5
Drew Hill	1989-1991	35	HOU	90	1109	4
Michael Irvin	1996-1998	32	DAL	74	1057	1
Tim Brown	1998-2000	34	OAK	76	1128	11
Jimmy Smith	2003-2005	36	JAX	70	1023	6
Charlie Joiner	1979-1981	34	SDG	70	1188	7
Anquan Boldin	2011-2013	33	SFO	85	1179	7
Irving Fryar	1995-1997	35	PHI	86	1316	6
Hines Ward	2007-2009	33	PIT	95	1167	6
Drew Hill	1988-1990	34	HOU	74	1019	5
Tony Gonzalez	2006-2008	32	KAN	96	1058	10
Rod Smith	2002-2004	34	DEN	79	1144	7
Terance Mathis	1997-1999	32	ATL	81	1016	6
Hines Ward	2008-2010	34	PIT	59	755	5
Art Monk	1988-1990	33	WAS	68	770	5
Henry Ellard	1993-1995	34	WAS	56	1005	5
Donald Driver	2005-2007	32	GNB	82	1048	2
Derrick Mason	2007-2009	35	BAL	73	1028	7
Jimmy Smith	2000-2002	33	JAX	80	1027	7
Keenan McCardell	1999-2001	31	JAX	93	1110	6
Irving Fryar	1993-1995	33	MIA	62	910	8
Anquan Boldin	2012-2014	34	SFO	83	1062	5
Average	NA	33.6	NFL	77.4	1051.3	5.9

What you have there is almost a complete list of any receiver who could be considered a “savvy veteran” in the past 30 years. You don’t have any speedsters in particular—these are players who, like Boldin, aged gracefully because of their focus on solid hands and good positioning, rather than raw physical attributes. In other words, speed fades but positional savvy doesn’t.

It’s also a positive sign that several players show up twice on the list of top comparables. Besides Boldin, Derrick Mason, Donald Driver, Drew Hill, Hines Ward, Irving Fryar, Jimmy Smith and Rod Smith all show up twice in the top 25. That means these players put up good numbers as aging veterans and then continued to put up good numbers the year after. They, like Boldin, were consistent for a stretch in their 30s, providing value even as other similarly-aged players dropped out of the league.

DAVID ZALUBOWSKI/Associated Press

Of course, it’s not all sunshine and roses. Most of the players on the list did begin to see their numbers drop in their following season. Of the 25 most similar players, 21 had 1,000-yard seasons in the final year of their comparison windows. In the year after—which would be 2015 for Boldin—only nine did.

Production dropped across the board: The average reception total dropped from 77.4 to 60.5; the average yardage total dropped from 1,051.3 to 753.5; and the average touchdown total dropped from 5.9 to 3.

That shouldn’t be all that surprising. Age ends everyone’s career. You can picture Jerry Rice failing to make the Denver Broncos in the 2005 preseason, or Johnny Unitas’ dead arm as a member of the San Diego Chargers or Emmitt Smith floundering at the line for the Arizona Cardinals. Eventually, your younger competition becomes too fast and too strong for all the knowledge and experience in the world to make up for.

Still, most of these players did end up aging gracefully. They had, on average, three seasons left in the tank, and almost all of them gradually drifted from top players to solid contributors before leaving on a moderate note. That 60-reception, 750-yard receiving line in the year N+1 season isn’t a bad statline at all—it’s the sort of numbers Greg Jennings or Dwayne Bowe put up in 2014. While neither of those are players you really want leading your offense at this point in their careers, those are starting-caliber numbers.

Name	Year	Age	Team	Rec	Yds	TD
Rod Smith	2006	36	DEN	52	512	3
Tony Martin	2000	35	MIA	26	393	0
Derrick Mason	2009	35	BAL	73	1028	7
Donald Driver	2010	35	GNB	51	565	4
J.T. Smith	1989	34	PHO	62	778	5

In addition, that average statline is being drawn down by a couple of players. Jimmy Smith retired in 2006 after putting up 1,023 yards the season before; there’s every reason to believe he could have continued to play solidly had he returned. Irvin suffered a career-ending injury early in the 1999 season, prematurely truncating his performance. Boldin isn’t retiring, and it isn’t fair to project a massive injury, either.

So, 750 receiving yards might be a bit low. In fact, looking at those top 25 players, a plurality of them actually topped 1,000 yards in their next seasons, including Boldin. It’s far from a fait accompli that Boldin will decline significantly in 2015.

Yardage	#	Players
1,000+ yards	9	Boldin, Brown, Driver, Ellard, Fryar, Hill, Mason, Monk, R. Smith
800-1,000 yards	3	Gonzalez, Mason, Ji. Smith
600-800	5	Hill, Mathis, McCardell, J.T.Smith, H.Ward
400-600	4	Driver, Fryar, Joiner, R. Smith
200-400	2	Martin, Ward
0-200	2	Irvin, J.Smith

So, where does this leave us?

Age, for Boldin, is not a ticking time bomb. He’s not going to go from a 1,000-yard receiver to an on-field liability overnight. What we’re likely to see over the next two to three seasons—or until Boldin retires, whichever comes first—is a slow, gradual reduction in his effectiveness. In theory, this should be accompanied by larger and larger roles for the young receivers on the team, such as Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton and DeAndre Smelter.

Name	Year	Age	Team	Rec	Yds	TD
Irving Fryar	1996	34	PHI	88	1195	11
Tim Brown	2001	35	OAK	91	1165	9
Drew Hill	1991	35	HOU	90	1109	4
Rod Smith	2005	35	DEN	85	1105	6
Anquan Boldin	2014	34	SF	83	1062	5

I think a projection of somewhere between 800 and 1,000 yards seems fair for a 35-year-old Boldin. The decrease in yards per reception is probably a real effect of aging rather than a one-year blip. It’s unlikely, though not impossible, that Boldin will crack 1,000 yards in a season again.

However, he should still be an effective starter in 2015, making clutch receptions on third down. The addition of Torrey Smith to take the top off of defenses should give Boldin both additional room to work underneath and better matchups against opposing cornerbacks. That should help stem the effects of simply being another year older.

Boldin shows every sign of aging gracefully, but aging is still aging. Expect him to be effective, but not a star, going forward.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.