Pasadena Dreamin': BCS Probability Rankings

No surprise here.

The defending champion Florida Gators are returning a full squad of starters from last year’s championship team including senior leaders on both sides of the ball (Tebow and Spikes). The Gators are without a doubt the odds on favorites to not only make it to the BCS Championship, but win it as well.

After their complete domination of Charleston Southern in Week 1, we really don’t know much more about Florida than we did after their spring game. Their starters played well, but worked with a restricted playbook and saw very limited action before the second and third teams hit the field.

The Gators have a favorable schedule to make a strong run at their third title in the past four seasons. The expectations surrounding this program are the highest in school history and anything less than a BCS Title would be considered by many to be a monumental collapse.

Greatest Strength: Returning championship experience.
Biggest Hurdle: Tremendous expectations.
Potential Upset: @LSU

It absolutely pains me to rank any Big 10 team this high, but you simply can’t deny Penn State’s ease of schedule.

The Nittany Lions have the easiest schedule of any major BCS conference team in the nation, bar none. Penn State opens the season with non-conference games against Akron, Syracuse and Temple. Let’s not forget about Eastern Illinois in Week 6.

It’s important to keep in mind that these rankings are based purely on “probability” of finishing in the BCS top two. Any team with the nation’s easiest schedule logically presents itself with the best opportunity to run the table with a perfect season. For this reason alone, I would have to say that Penn State has an inside track in the race for BCS No. 2.

If Penn State can survive a marginal Big Ten schedule and hold off Ohio State in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions may very well be in BCS Title Game come January. They may not be the most talented contender, but they will be there to represent in true Big Ten fashion…another embarrassing BCS loss.

Greatest Strength: Veteran squad of returning starters.
Biggest Hurdle: Getting passed from behind in BCS.
Potential Upset: @ Illinois

Goodbye, Oklahoma. Hello, Brigham Young.

Last week’s upset over Oklahoma was one small step in the season, but one giant leap for the Cougars shot at playing in the BCS Championship.

BYU did not beat Oklahoma just because Sam Bradford went down with an injured shoulder in the closing seconds of the first half. Even with a healthy Bradford, Oklahoma was not dominating that game by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, BYU seemed to be the team in control of the game at the time of Bradford’s injury.

The reason why BYU is so high in the “probability rankings” is due to the fact that they already have that quality win over a top-three program and still have a possibility of playing (and beating) three more ranked opponents.

Although I wouldn’t advise Cougar fans to start booking airfare to Pasadena just yet, I would suggest they show up in droves for the remaining home games against FSU, TCU and Utah. These three games will be key to their BCS dreams.

Greatest Strength: Quality opponents.
Biggest Hurdle: Finishing the season as strong as they started.
Potential Upset: FSU, TCU, Utah

Everyone knows what happened to Texas last season. They got caught up in a twisted Big 12 tiebreaker and ended up drawing the shortest straw, missing out on the Big 12 Title Game and BCS Championship Game by the narrowest of margins.

To say that Texas will play with a chip on their shoulder this season is a complete understatement. Colt McCoy is likely to have another Heisman-type year, but the Longhorns will not roll through most opponents on their schedule.

Say what???

You heard me. The Longhorns will be tested early and often, starting with Texas Tech in Week 3. Need I remind anyone of last year’s Tech game? I didn’t think so.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas A&M are all formidable opponents regardless of their rankings, and have the potential be play spoiler in a season when Texas wants to prove they belong more than any other team in the nation.

If Texas survives that schedule, there is no team in the nation that will keep them out of the BCS title game this season.

Greatest Strength: The Colt McCoy-Jordan Shipley connection.
Biggest Hurdle: Tough schedule.
Potential Upset: Oklahoma State, Kansas, @Baylor

Heading into the season, the Blue Broncos had to win one game in order to make it into a BCS bowl. Mission Accomplished.

The victory over Oregon left Bronco Nation riding high on the horse...until BYU upstaged them with a monumental upset of their own.

Despite the successes or failures of other teams, Boise State remains a virtual lock to finish the regular season undefeated and make it back to another BCS Bowl. Quite simply, there are no contenders left on the schedule to challenge the Blue Broncos.

All Boise State has left to do is just cruise control through the remainder of the season, practice their gimmicky offense to perfection and hope and pray that a few of the BCS big dogs above them falter down the stretch.

Greatest Strength: Virtual lock for undefeated regular season.
Biggest Hurdle: Weak strength of schedule.
Potential Upset: Close eyes and point…eeny, meeny, miny…Fresno State?

The Buckeyes looked very shaky in their game versus Navy this week which only proves my point about the lack of strength in the Big 10 this season. And, we will find out relatively quickly whether or not the Buckeyes are contenders or pretenders.

Ohio State is essentially in the same position as Penn State, except they sprinkled in a bit of Southern California spice into their bland schedule. This is a boom or bust game for the Buckeyes.

There is no doubt that Terrelle Pryor is an elite athlete. Now it’s time for Pryor to prove that he’s more than just a mobile arm. Pryor will be challenged by a solid USC defense to make quick decisions, execute plays and prove that the Buckeyes are a championship-caliber team.

If Ohio State can beat USC at home, they will vault in the rankings and take an inside track on the road to Pasadena. If not, they will still have a shot at Pasadena…only in the Rose Bowl, not the national championship.

Greatest Strength: Terrelle Pryor’s athleticism.
Biggest Hurdle: Terrelle Pryor’s decision-making.
Potential Upset: @ Penn State, Illinois

The past few seasons in South Bend have been about as cold as Jimmy Clausen's frosted tips...

This season will be different for the Irish. Charlie Weis’s prized recruiting classes are finally starting to come to fruition. His players are experienced, battle-tested, seasoned and primed for a breakout year.

We’ve heard similar words quite a few times over the past few seasons, haven't we? Well, this is the first time that I actually believe that these statement may be true.

The Notre Dame offense should be productive this season with the return of starting quarterback Jimmy Clausen, leading rusher Armando Allen, and top wideouts Golden Tate and Michael Floyd. The Irish defense will be the key to pulling off an upset over USC in South Bend and carrying the squad to a BCS bowl.

The Irish have an almost identical schedule to Ohio State, playing their fair share of weak opposition before the USC train comes rolling into South Bend at midseason. Perhaps a BCS Championship appearance is a bit of wishful thinking, but this team is no worse than anything coming out of the Big 10.

Essentially, Notre Dame’s season boils down to winning the games they are supposed to win and pulling off one big upset.

It's also worth noting that the Irish also have the full support of Gator Nation behind them, with Gator fans across the world cheering rabidly for Weis to put together a BCS bowl season and keep Urban Meyer as far from South Bend as possible.

Greatest Strength: Battle-tested (although failed more often than not).
Biggest Hurdle: USC.
Potential Upset: Boston College, @Michigan

Despite losing many key impact players from last season’s team, Alabama has all the makings of a great team in 2009.

The defense looks stout and even more talented than last season. The offense returns super-sophomore playmakers Julio Jones and Mark Ingram. And, the special teams unit will be as dangerous as ever with elite return man Javier Arenas returning for his senior season.

So, why in the world is Alabama so low in the “probability rankings”?

The Crimson Tide play a brutal SEC regular season schedule. And, if they are fortunate enough to make it to the SEC Championship game, they will likely face the likes of the Florida Gators.

Alabama has a shot, but when it boils down to probability, they aren’t near the top of the list.

Greatest Strength: Outstanding defense.
Biggest Hurdle: Brutal schedule.
Potential Upset: @Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, @Auburn

Oklahoma State isn't necessarily a dark horse this season, but they can play the role of spoiler and actually have a decent shot at playing for the Big 12 Title. If this happens, the sky is the limit as to where they could play in January.

The biggest challenge for Oklahoma State will be surviving amongst the fittest of the Big 12. The regular season schedule is about as tough as it comes. After outlasting a formidable SEC opponent in Georgia, the Cowboys now turn toward a "soft" few games before facing the heart of the Big 12 South schedule.

The Cowboy offense is loaded with veteran, NFL-caliber playmakers and their chances of playing for a Big 12 title this season are just as good as any other team in the competitive South division.

The Cowboys should be undefeated when Texas comes rolling into town on Oct. 31, setting the stage for a de facto Big 12 Championship Title Game. Can you say spoiler?

Greatest Strength: Outstanding offense.
Biggest Hurdle: Tough schedule.
Potential Upset: @Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State

USC is the wild card in this year’s BCS equation. The Trojans have a formidable Pac-10 schedule and tough road games in Columbus and South Bend.

In recent years, USC has made a habit out of winning the big games, but tripping up and losing to inferior opponents down the stretch. Although loaded with talent, this year could yet again be much of the same.

The Trojans are putting all their faith in the arm of a 19-year old, Matt Barkley. The baby-faced, true freshman quarterback is not much more than a few months removed from his high school diapers, but is already being called upon to lead the Trojans to the promised land.

I’m not much of a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that the 19-year old Barkley is bound to make a mistake or two somewhere along the way that will cost USC a game. And, one loss this season is all it will take to ruin a title shot. For this reason, USC barely holds on to the No. 10 spot in the “BCS Probability Rankings."

Greatest Strength: Talent and depth.
Biggest Hurdle: Zach Morris...I mean, Matt Barkley.
Potential Upset: @Notre Dame, @Ohio State, @Cal, @Oregon