100 Predictions for the 2009 NFL Season

Normally, I’m not one for preseason prediction columns. Oh, I always do them, but I usually restricted them to my old blog. There’s just something about the “Hey guys, look what I think!” column that always seemed...I don’t know, kind of lame.

 

At the same time, there’s nothing like making a bold prediction, having the balls to put it in print to get ridiculed (as all bold predictions invariably do), and then actually having it come true.

 

Over the past few years, I’ve had some luck in that department. In a 2007 preseason column for sports-central.org, I called a complete collapse for a Baltimore Ravens team that had gone 13-3 the year prior and was being billed as a top AFC contender. And though I was one off on the final record (I called 4-12, they went 5-11), I still considered it a good pick.

 

Same thing with the Cleveland Browns last year. Everybody thought they had finally arrived, but I called a collapse, and I was right.

 

But of course, predictions are like golf shots. You remember the great ones, all the while conveniently forgetting all the crap shots that ended up at the bottom of the lake.

 

So what if I predicted the Falcons to go 5-11 last year and they went 11-5? At least I called Matt Ryan the Offensive Rookie of the Year!

 

So take these for what they’re worth: one educated man’s opinion on how this season will play out.

 

Feel free to disagree.

 

 

 

The Fantasy Files

 

Dustin Keller will finish with more fantasy points than Antonio Gates. Mark Sanchez will be looking for Keller on damn near every play.

 

Beanie Wells will rush for fewer than 700 yards. He’s got great talent, but the dude is injury prone. Meanwhile, Tim Hightower is no chump. A 50-50 split is Wells’ best-case scenario.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew will not rush for more than 1,000 yards. He’s never had more than 200 carries in a season—college or pro. Now he’s going to last for 250-300?

 

Brett Favre will start fewer than 10 games. Signing Favre was the single worst thing the Vikings could have done for their Super Bowl hopes—and Brad Childress will pay for it with his job.

 

Chris Johnson will finish with more touchdowns than LenDale White. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if the Steelers found a way to put White out for a few games on opening night.

 

Chad Henne will start at least four games. In his nine-season career, Chad Pennington has never started double-digit games in two consecutive seasons. He started all 16 last season. Henne is the Dolphins’ future.

 

Wes Welker will catch fewer than 85 passes. The 5'9" Welker has 223 catches over the past two seasons and missed most of the preseason with some mysterious injuries. I just have a weird feeling that he’s going to miss some games this year.

 

Donnie Avery will have more receptions than Terrell Owens. The Bills are a franchise on the verge of hitting rock bottom. T.O. does not handle adversity well. Meanwhile, Avery is a rising star on a franchise that will struggle mightily early but start to emerge in the second half.

 

Shaun Hill will have more passing yards than Matt Cassel. Two reasons: 1. Hill is a very underrated quarterback who threw for over 2,000 yards last season in just eight starts, and 2. Cassel is going to tank behind the worst offensive line in football.

 

Jamal Lewis will run for more yards and more touchdowns than Larry Johnson. I mentioned the Chiefs’ offensive line, plus Cleveland has a decent O-line, Thomas Jones scored 13 touchdowns under Eric Mangini last year, and I don’t think Jerome Harrison is the man to take Lewis’ carries away. 

 

Carson Palmer will start fewer than 12 games. I mentioned the Chiefs have football's worst offensive line. The Bengals have the second worst.

 

Chris Simms will score more fantasy points than Michael Vick. I was excited for Simms as a sleeper to take the Broncos’ job before it became clear Josh McDaniels wanted to give it to Kyle Orton. I still think Simms is the best quarterback on that team.

 

 

 

Along the Road

 

In Week Two, a ton of people will take Minnesota over Detroit in their Survivor Leagues—and lose. I might be the only guy in America who is down on the Vikings, but I am. And this has nothing to do with off-the-field BS. This is all about on-field mediocrity.

 

After the Lions win their second game in a row in Week Three, Chris Berman will use the phrase “Break up the Lions” and think he’s being funny.

 

The Lions won’t win again until Week 11.

 

The Jets will lead the league in penalties. Rex Ryan’s overdeveloped sense of machismo + Bart Scott = Total breakdown of discipline at least once per game.

 

Last undefeated team: Indianapolis; First loss will be in Week 11 at Baltimore. For some reason, people are sleeping on the Colts this year. Losing Marvin Harrison is not that big of a deal. I also think Donald Brown, the rookie from Connecticut, will be a huge lift to a sagging run game.

 

Last team to win: Tampa Bay, which finally beats Carolina in Week Six at home. I don’t think new head coach Raheem Morris has any idea what he’s doing. Their first five games run the full gamut of the NFC East, plus a road trip to Buffalo. Maybe they beat the Bills, but they’re not beating Dallas, Philadelphia (road), Washington (road), or the Giants.

 

Coaches to get fired during or after this season: Dick Jauron (Buffalo), Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati), Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville), Brad Childress (Minnesota), John Fox (Carolina—franchise on the verge of collapse), Jim Zorn (Washington), Wade Phillips (Dallas).

 

 

 

The Final Standings

 

I went through the entire schedule, picking every game. This is how it ended up.

 

AFC East

 

New England: 12-4

New York Jets: 9-7

Miami: 8-8

Buffalo: 5-11

 

AFC South

 

Indianapolis: 13-3

Tennessee: 7-9

Houston: 7-9

Jacksonville: 5-11

 

AFC North

 

Pittsburgh: 13-3

Baltimore: 9-7

Cleveland: 7-9

Cincinnati: 6-10

 

AFC West

 

San Diego: 11-5

Oakland: 7-9

Denver: 5-11

Kansas City: 4-12

 

NFC East

 

Dallas: 11-5

New York Giants: 10-6

Philadelphia: 7-9

Washington: 7- 9

 

NFC South

 

New Orleans: 12-4

Atlanta: 10-6

Carolina: 4-12

Tampa Bay: 4-12

 

NFC North

 

Green Bay: 13-3

Chicago: 10-6

Minnesota: 8-8

Detroit: 4-12

 

NFC West

 

San Francisco: 9-7

Seattle: 8-8

St. Louis: 6-10

Arizona: 5-11 (Super Bowl Loser Curse lives! Kurt Warner’s hip is going to prove his final undoing.)

 

 

 

The Awards Show

 

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

 

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams

 

Rookie Rushing Leader: Donald Brown, Indianapolis

 

Rookie Passing Leader: Sanchez

 

Rookie Receptions Leader: Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants

 

NFL Rushing Champion: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

 

Most Receptions: Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos

 

Most Passing Touchdowns: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

 

NFL Sacks Champion: Mario Williams, Houston Texans

 

AP Offensive Player of the Year: Rodgers

 

AP Defensive Player of the Year: Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

MVP: Rodgers

 

Coach of the Year: Mike McCarthy, Packers

 

(So yeah, I’m fairly high on the Packers this year.)

 

 

 

The Playoffs

 

AFC Playoff Seed: 1. Pittsburgh, 2. Indianapolis, 3. New England, 4. San Diego, 5. Baltimore, 6. New York Jets

 

* Pittsburgh takes home field by virtue of better conference record than Indianapolis (10-2 vs. 9-3)

 

* Baltimore takes fifth seed due to better record in common games than Jets (3-2 vs. 1-4).

 

AFC Wild Card Round: New England over New York Jets, San Diego over Baltimore

 

AFC Divisional Round: New England over Pittsburgh, Indianapolis over San Diego (the Colts finally beat the Chargers in a playoff game)

 

AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis over New England

 

NFC playoff seeds: 1. Green Bay, 2. New Orleans, 3. Dallas, 4. San Francisco, 5. Atlanta, 6. New York Giants

 

* At 10-6, Bears lose out on the Wild Card due to worse conference records than the Giants and Falcons; Falcons have 8-4 record in NFC, Giants 7-5, and Bears 6-6

 

* Falcons’ conference record also gives them fifth seed over Giants.

 

NFC Wild Card Round: New York Giants over Dallas (followed by Wade Phillips getting immediately canned and replaced by Bill Cowher), Atlanta over San Francisco

 

NFC Divisional Round: Green Bay over the Giants, New Orleans over Atlanta

 

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl: Green Bay over Indianapolis

 

Super Bowl MVP: Aaron Rodgers

 

 

 

Basically, 2009 is football’s way of telling Favre to eff off. He gets hurt, breaking the coolest streak he could have held on to in retirement, the team that sold their soul to bring him back goes down in flames, causing a second coach to get fired as a result of trusting him, and the team he came back to screw over ends up winning it all.

 

Now that’s a football season worth watching.

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