By Keith Connell
BAMA fans have been labeled many things over the years. Delusional is a term that frequently comes to mind. Fans of other programs are quick to point out that Alabama fans like to, "live on their tradition". Or that "The Bear's dead. Get over it already". While I do feel that some of the criticism and the labels are unwarranted, maybe BAMA fans bring it on themselves at times too. But that aside, one label that an opposing fan can safely bestow on the majority of Tide fans is to call them cocky. While I personally prefer the term "undeniably confident and optimistic", I can certainly understand the reasoning of our rivals. Anyone that knows a hard-core BAMA fan will likely tell you that BAMA fans are always confident when it comes to their beloved Tide. Confident to the point of being obnoxious sometimes. Or maybe confident to the point of being....delusional? Ummm. Dang! Here we are again. Back to square one.
Okay look. Maybe we can be a bit delusional or even overly optimistic regarding our team I've begun to think that many of our "homers" have good reason to set their sights high this coming season, and here's why.
Given the cards dealt within the SEC West this season it's a logical assumption that the Tide could rise in 2008. Alabama has already emerged as something of a sexy pick to challenge for the division crown in 2008 by some of the media. Why? Well, some of it has to do with Alabama, and some of it has to do with our counterparts. In regards to Alabama, we're looking at a team that returns one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the conference, and the senior signal-caller in the West. A running back who finished the year with almost 900 yards and 8 touchdowns, while being injured for almost half of the season. An offensive line that is projected to be one of the strengths of the team. One of the conference's best place kickers, and a defense that features some good, young talent.
Is BAMA primed for a BCS run? Probably not. There are issues to overcome, namely depth and youth. The Tide could be a year or two away from playing on the big stage. But is BAMA primed to make a substantial impact in the Southeastern Conference? At this point, I'd have to say yes.
Let's preview the SEC West and the current state of affairs.
LSU
Probably the most talented team in the West, LSU comes into the season as defending national champions and potentially biggest hurdle to the Tide's chances of getting to Atlanta. While rival fans might find it odd that we don't list Auburn here, make no mistake. We still hate Auburn. We still want to beat Auburn with every fiber of our being, but LSU is "the man" right now. And as the old saying goes, "Damn the man"! Uh...my bad. Wrong old saying.
And as the old saying goes, "To be the man, you have to beat the man". So until BAMA defeats the LSU Tigers on the field it means nothing.
Having said all of that, we're looking at an LSU team that has been sorely weakened since last season, mostly due to attrition. It's hard enough for programs to make up the losses of players like Glen Dorsey, Chevis Jackson, Jacob Hester and Early Doucet to the NFL draft without having to deal with the extra-curricular stuff from the guy that is supposed to be your team leader.
Yeah, nice going Ryan Perrilloux Way to ride the pine for the better part of your career, only to get the nod as the man, and then screw it up.
So now, with all of LSU's talent and athleticism the Bayou Bengals enter the season without a quarterback. Will it kill the Tigers' season? Doubt it. But games against Auburn, Alabama, Florida and Georgia just got a lot more interesting. Especially when you consider that the pick of the litter to replace Perriloux consists of (1) a Harvard transfer in Andrew Hatch, or (2) Jarrett Lee, a freshman that has never seen the field in SEC play.
Some say that anyone with a pulse can come into LSU and make few enough mistakes to lead the talent to victory. For LSU fans' sakes let's hope that is true.
For all of their talent, the loss of Perrilloux is a crushing blow to the program's hopes for this season.
Auburn
Ever get the feeling that Tommy Tuberville changes coordinators like other coaches change socks? Kinda feels that way sometimes. The only thing is this season Tuberville has gone for broke and replaced not one, but two coordinators. Tony Franklin comes in from Troy to replace the departed Al Borges, as Auburn goes from a west coast variant to a spread offense. On the defensive side of the ball, Paul Rhoads comes to Auburn from Pittsburgh to replace Will Muschamp.
Normally any time you change a system you can expect some bumps in the road. Especially when you go from an Al Borges-type offense to a wide open spread attack. Keep in mind, this isn't a team going from the pro-set to something as standard as the I formation. It's more akin to a team going from the Ace to the Wishbone. Aside from the learning curve that all of the offensive players will undergo, Auburn is breaking in a new quarterback in Kodi Burns. Or, well, we think it's Burns. Currently the situation is still a bit muddled since junior college transfer Chris Todd is still in the mix. In the end Burns may have the edge so we'll assume that he will be the starter to open the season. Burns performed adequately last season going 10 for 26 with a couple of touchdowns in 10 contests.
Defensively the Tigers have to deal with plugging some holes and replacing players like Quinten Groves. Groves finished 2007 with 38 total stops, 7 for a loss of yardage, and 3 sacks. With Auburn recruiting as well as they have in recent years the talent level should be good enough that Rhoads can find a steady replacement for the departed Groves.
All in all system changes take time, and Auburn will likely experience its share of growing pains especially early in the season. How quickly the quarterback situation gets ironed out will likely determine whether or not Auburn finishes on top of the division or middle of the pack.
Mississippi State
It's hard not to give Sly Croom a lot of credit for what he's done at State. Starkville isn't the most desirable place for prospective student-athletes and historically it's been difficult for coaches to maintain any consistency in the state while having to share a 2.5 million recruiting base with two other universities. But given the disadvantages he's working under, Croom has steadily built up the Bulldog program.
Is what we're witnessing now the beginning or the end of the Bulldog climb up the SEC ladder?
It's the opinion of this writer that Croom probably did more with less than any other coach in the SEC. While going 8-5 last year the Bulldogs often did it relying on a solid defense, the running of a talented back in Anthony Dixon and pretty much nothing else. While Dixon is back the Bulldogs will likely require a good deal more if they plan on challenging in the division. Croom might be quite the magician but he won't be able to get away with the smoke and mirrors act for a second season like he did in 2007. It just doesn't work that way in the SEC. The key for the Bulldogs will be getting more production out of the passing game.
Sophomore Wesley Carroll emerged last season, taking over the signal calling duties from Michael Henig, and performed adequately enough. More will be expected from him this season and if he continues to develope it gives the Bulldogs far more balance on offense. The one potential hitch in Carroll's development might not come the quarterback, but from his left tackle. Former left tackle might be the best choice of words actually. Left tackle Michael Brown was slated to protect Carroll's blind side in 2008, until he was arrested and then dismissed for assault and weapons charges.
State could have a shot at duplicating last season's win total provided they get anything from Carroll and the receiving corps. Judging by the results of the Spring Game though should have Bulldogs fans a little worried.
The Spring Game ended in 6-0 victory for the Maroon Team with the lone score coming in overtime. Hardly an awe-inspiring performance by the State offense.
Ole Miss
Now everyone knows what has been suspected for years now. They truly are goings Nutt(s) in Oxford. Look, let's be honest here. What is the first thing people think when you mention Ole Miss or Oxford? No, this is not a trick question. It's more like a pop quiz.
Toughy huh?
Well, they had that Manning guy. No, two Mannings. Umm....blonds and lots of them. Wasn't there a running back that was supposed to be good once? Was it McGillicutty? McGillifrey? Oh, it was McCallister. Duece McCallister. Uh, did I mention they have lots of coeds?
I mean, really? What else is there? This is Ole Miss. This is their legacy. Is it likely to change any time soon? No.
But Rebel fans are excited in Oxford these days to be sure. Ole Miss is finally able to put the Orgeron experiment (a colossal failure by any measure) behind them, and if any coach ever needed a change of scenery it is Houston Nutt.
Conventional wisdom says that Nutt is an upgrade from Mongo Orgeron. Nutt has been through the SEC wars for years now, and has enjoyed moderate success. He also knows the recruiting terrain. But Nutt isn't Super Man. He won't right this ship in one season. It's going to take him some time to get the pieces in place but he has a couple of things going for him already.
Most notably, Nutt now has two pieces to play with in newcomers Jevan Snead from Texas and former Auburn commitment Enrique Davis. Both of these guys were All-World coming out of high school and Davis was regarded by many as the top running back in the country while Snead began to make his move during the spring. Match these two guys up with emerging tailback Cordera Eason and guess what you have?
It's like Deja Vu all over again.
Nutt will rely heavily on the running game to the point of being just downright unwilling to put the ball up. Just like he was at Arkansas. Don't hate the messenger Ole Miss fans. Y'all see this coming just like I do. Nutt is what he is. He isn't going to change his spots now. And if he does allow Snead any freedom it wont last for long. Snead will end up running the option or handing it off more than throwing any meaningful passes. Bank on it.
Having said all of that, Ole Miss will be a better team. They'd have to be. Nutt will get more bang for the buck than his predecessor did, and he'll win some games. Chances are, he'll scare the heck out of a number of teams this year in the process. The real problem with the Rebels is that across the board they still has some holes to fill. The defense has some major question marks with players like Jarrell Powe (eligibility), Jeremy McGee and Marshay Green (switching units).
Ole Miss could win twice as many games this year but it still probably wont be enough in the end.
Arkansas
It's going to be a long, long year for the Hogs in 2008. New coach Bobby Petrino has a long history of producing potent offenses, but he won't be able to do much this year. Not with Ryan Mallett being denied his waiver by the NCAA, and certainly not with having to rely on Casey Dick as the starting quarterback. I don't care good Dick looked in the spring game, he'll have to prove it during the fall and I'm not sold.
If by chance Dick can perform in the fall there is hope for the Hogs offense. Michael Smith could be a real spark plug at tailback, while tight end D.J. Williams is emerging as a real weapon in the passing game.
The defense is full of holes though and the Hogs have to replace 6 starters, including all of the defensive backs. Linebacker was thin to begin with and now injuries and suspensions have further depleted the corps.
Petrino and staff really have their work cut out for them in 2008.
Conclusion
It's going to be one crazy, whacky season for the SEC West in 2008. The variables from the top team in the division to the bottom team are almost innumerable. While LSU and Auburn have the most talent going into the season, both face big questions at key positions. BAMA might be coming around to life under Saban but will have to replace their top receivers and hope the defense grows up quickly. You would think that at 8-5 Croom's boys have probably topped out, but does Sly have more tricks up his sleeve? Ole Miss will be improved but to what degree? Just how far will Nutt's smash-mouth attack go in his first year on the job? Arkansas is the big question mark in the division.
At this point it's anyone's division championship to claim. It wouldn't surprise this writer to see any of the top 4 teams listed stumble into it when it's all said and done.
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4 months ago
quick question, why has this article appeared on the f1 page?
4 months ago
Good read. I doubt if it will happen this year, but I expect Houston Nutt to make Ole Miss a contender at some point in the future.
I also think Casey Dick may be a little better than folks are giving him credit for. Why? I don't know honestly. It's just a feeling I have.
LSU? They'll be good. To much talent there for them not to be.
AU? Depending on how fast they mesh with the new offensive system, they could be dangerous. The defense is mostly Tuberville's, so I don't expect a new DC to make much difference.
MSU? Who knows? Anthony Dixon might be the best RB in the western division, and second only to Mereno in the SEC. It'll come down to QB play and how the defense does after losing a couple of key players.
Alabama? I look for big things from the offense, but the front 7 is very inexperienced. So we'll just have to see how they come together.
All in all, I think the west is wide open this year, with AU and LSU the favorites to go to Atlanta. I do think Alabama has an outside shot, but with the road schedule the Tide has, it's a way outside shot.
4 months ago
great read. good analysis of the west and loved the take on bama fans.
btw, this article made me change my profile photo.
4 months ago
I agree with Jimbo. Alabama's shot at Atlanta are slim to none, with none having a slight preseason edge.
The biggest factors for the SEC West are 1) will anyone take charge of the QB spot at LSU, 2) how quickly will Auburn's offense gel, and 3) can JP Wilson be the leader he was in his sophomore season. Once those things are ironed out, which should be by week 3, then we'll know who is the contender and who is ready to go crawl under a rock and wait for '09.
4 months ago
Good article for the most part, I have to disagree on a few things though...
Auburn is more of a threat than LSU. They are more well rounded, have a much easier schedule and have better coaching. You will see most people start to hop on their bandwagon as far as preseason predicitions go for winning the West.
Ole Miss will be a lot better than you are giving them credit for and will be better than Mississippi State. State will not be anything like last season (in which they had a handful of very LUCKY wins) Luck only last so long and their off the field issues this off season will not help things either. Back to Ole Miss: You said "It's going to take (Nutt) some time to get the pieces in place..." This has become a pretty common misconception. Orgeron went out and got the pieces, he just couldn't put them together. Houston Nutt will, he has a history of getting the most out of his teams and he has a lot to get out of this '08 Rebel squad.
They will not be in the running to win the division, but they will be very competitive. This will not be a easy W for anyone this year, like many are thinking.
Other than that I thought it was a pretty good analyst of the division, I agree Arkansas is a huge question mark, but I just don't see them doing much this season. Could be wrong though.
4 months ago
Intersting article. Liked the analysis of the Bama fan psyche.
I am still a little confused as to why people say Auburn will experience "growing pains" under the new offense early in the season. In case you forgot, we put the offense in in 9 practices and then beat Clemson in a bowl game with it and put up over 400 yards of offense. A Clemson team that had a top 10 defense in the nation. So not sure why people keep saying it will take time for Auburn to mesh with the new offense, etc. They will be just fine. I just want them to settle on a QB, but I think we will see two QB's playing, at least early on.
4 months ago
Thanks for the comments guys. I am glad to get comments specifically related to the perception of BAMA fans. I actually thought about deleting that whole portion of the article and doing something different instead, but in the end I left it. I just didn't want to overdo it, though I wanted to get the point across too, but without sounding psychotic or obsessed.
I do think it's true though (to an extent) that we all have perceptions of our rivals. Sometimes the perceptions are justified while other times they are stereotypes. The Coach Bear Bryant comments that BAMA fans endure are often some of the most ludicrous. In my experience I've found that often times the people talking up Coach Bryant and living on that era are the (1) lunatic fringe element of the fanbase or (2) the more elderly of the fanbase that still live and die with the success of the 60's and 70's.
Most BAMA fans I know will refer to the accomplishments of Bryant when discussing BAMA football, but don't live ON Bryant's memory like some do. In fact, if you ask today's BAMA fan many of them might actually tell you that their favorite head coach was Gene Stallings for example.
Bottom line is that aside from the yahoos (and God knows we have our share of them) and the old guard the average BAMA fan is well-aware of the death of Paul W. Bryant. We don't need to be reminded of it constantly.
Glad you guys commented on that portion of the article though. Thanks.
Chad, I do think that Ole Miss will be okay this year. I guess I should have done more to clarify that. And you are right in that Nutt has gotten more with less more often than any other coach I can name off the top of my head. He did some good things at Arkansas and he'll be strong in Oxford. I don't think 6-7 wins is impossible. I actually expect something within that range. But Orgeron had the program in shambles, and for all of his recruiting he tried to sign any player with a pulse and not necessarily a brain. If the kids can't qualify it doesn't matter in the end.
But yeah, I think Nutt will do alright this year. Thanks for the comments Chad.
Justin, thanks and there's a lot of merit to your comments. In fact, if I were a better writer I probably could have articulated the article a little better to reflect a couple of thoughts I had on the subject.
1. It's not like AU is installing this offense during the fall schedule. They've had some time to get some things going so that works in their advantage.
2. Burns may not have a problem in the world with the new spread attack. Burns is young and is coming in with almost a clean slate in terms of habits, perceptions, or system tendencies. I thinnk he probably fairs better in this situation than someone like say..Brandon Cox would have. Imagine running a west coast variant for a couple or three season only to switch to an entirely new system. Ouch! In all fairness, that's part of John Parker Wilson's problem as well. Three coordinators in three seasons now.
Thanks guys. Feel free to keep the comments going. 'Preciate it!
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