With the draft deadline less than a month away no school has more on the line than the University of North Carolina.
Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green have the UNC constituency begging for the threesome to return to school to get Roy Williams his second national title in five years.
Before they heed the call of the endless droves pleading for one more year they ought to seriously consider cutting and running for the NBA.
"They're not ready yet"
"The Heels will be preseason #1"
"Tyler came back and he was the player of the year"
These are just a couple of the arguments presented for the trio to return to Chapel Hill for another season with "Mr. Aw Shucks" himself, Roy Williams. Sure, they could do that, win a title and be content or they could do the smart thing and get to the NBA while they can. Before you try to have me committed examine the following:
-Carolina looks to feature a ten man rotation
The addition of Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis, Larry Drew, and Justin Watts broaden Roy Williams' quality depth. They also take away minutes from Lawson, Green and Ellington.
Bobby Frasor's return coupled with Larry Drew's enrollment would give the Heels three point guards, great for Roy Williams' system, not ideal for a player looking to improve their NBA draft stock.
Lawson needs a DJ Augustin, Derrick Rose style situation where he is the sole ball handler available in order to wow scouts with his speed and ability to get to his spots.
Green would remain relegated to bench duty, even though he is, top to bottom, the most complete player on Carolina's roster. With Ginyard handling the three spot at the tip Green would be battling Ginyard for minutes in the normal lineup while scrapping with Ed Davis and Deon Thompson for minutes at the four in Carolina's small lineups.
-Tyler Hansbrough's number will continue to increase
He's the reigning player of the year, the leading scorer and of course every announcers' man-crush of the year, he is Psycho-T.
With all the hype surrounding Hansbrough's senior campaign every other player quickly becomes an afterthought as a role player. During his final year Hansbrough will break every record known to man, becoming the Tar Heels all-time leading scorer, the ACC's leading scorer and most likely a two-time player of the year.
Selfishness isn't a reason to leave, but the fact that Lawson, Ellington, and Green become secondary and tertiary options doesn't help their stock rise for 2009.
Much of Williams' offense is predicated on the principal of perimeter players feeding Hansbrough the rock all game and letting Psycho-T's "will exceed his skill" all the way to the basket.
With minutes getting split up due to the additions, and Hansbrough's average likely to reach 25 a game, there are less total points for the team.
This season Carolina averaged 88.7 while Hansbrough averaged 23, or 26% of their total offensive output. Divvying up 65 points between Lawson, Ellington, Green, Thompson and Ginyard not to mention the rest of the bench becomes quite a chore.
-NBA Coaching
There are great college coaches out there including Hall of Famers such as Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski, but the difference is the focus in the NBA.
College basketball focuses on the coaches. Programs live and die with their coaching hires and big coaching matchups flavor the college basketball schedule.
Having a big time coach is gold in the lands of college athletics, especially when the coach has a proven methodology.
However, often a player's overall development is stunted as a coach works to fit them into a system. With the exception of Calipari's dribble-drive motion, most college systems fall short of maximizing the individual in order to maximize the collective.
Dean Smith, Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Calhoun have all been examples of holding players back to benefit the team, exhibited by the likes of Jordan, Worthy, Brand, Boozer, Hamilton and Allen exploding upon reaching the free form of the NBA.
In the NBA this isn't the case,because every player has value. Coaches work to maximize the rosters' talent, not only in order to win basketball games, but to increase a players overall value.
Trade bait is a valuable asset to have in the NBA, and by developing young talent into viable on the court performance trade value is increased. With the quality of coaching available at the NBA level Lawson, Ellington and Green would blossom to their full potential as opposed to limiting their game to fit into Roy Williams' system.
The draft stock of the three players in question is relatively stagnant, since their situation will remain essentially the same. In examining the second half of the draft where Lawson and Ellington are slated to come to the board, there are playoff teams that need to add parts instead of franchise players.
Lawson could get picked up by the Cavaliers to distribute to Lebron, the Wizards with Arenas, Butler and Jamison or the Sonics [from the Suns] to pass to Durant and Green.
He'd flourish in a system with people that are able to run with him, and without the pressure of being a franchise player. Lawson would also be a solid fit for a team such as the Mavericks looking to prepare for life without Jason Kidd or the Rockets to replace an aging Rafer Alston.
Ellington, as one of few pure shooters in the draft, would be a valuable asset to two serious title contenders. The Spurs feature Michael Finley and Brent Barry as their three-point shooters, and both are on the wrong side of 35.
Ray Allen, while the same age as KG, has truly looked old this postseason. Easing Ellington in to replace Ray Allen would be a solid move for a Celtics team that won't have much to choose from with the 30th pick in the draft.
Danny Green is a versatile guard/forward that has the tools to be a successful NBA player. At 6'6" 210 Green has a prototype NBA body and he is a defensive plus given his deceptive quickness and tremendous shot blocking ability as a perimeter player.
Pairing these assets with his quality three-point shooting ability and solid ball handling skills makes Danny Green will be a solid second round addition.
As a mid-to-late second rounder, Green is looking at being added to a quality ball club that has been to the playoffs and needs to fine tune their rosters.
Phoenix could use his skills on the defensive end of the floor, as well as the solid three-point shooting. The team that needs to add his skills and youth the most is the Dallas Mavericks.
A team that features Eddie Jones and Jerry Stackhouse at the combo guard-forward seriously needs a shot of young blood to reinvigorate a solid but aging roster. The Pistons, Hornets and the Sixers could also use a versatile wing player that brings solid defense to the table.
These are just my ruminations on the situation in Chapel Hill and how it disallows for the three best future NBA players to prosper.
The good of the team is paramount in college and due to that fact, Ellington, Lawson and Green must have their wings clipped in order to achieve the goals of Carolina nation. By leaving school now all three could latch on with quality ball clubs, probably contenders ,and grow their games to a higher level.
Jump ship now, get to the NBA and do the same thing every other player is planning on doing---making bank on the second contract, or 2011, in this case.
Do it now and you'll be rewarded with a lot more handsomely than being relegated to All-ACC Second Team or Honorable Mention because you don't get enough looks at the basket.
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4 months ago
First off, avid Carolina fan. Just a warning.
Good article. I've heard most of this information during the offseason and am not quite sure where I fall on the trio. I think Ellington's the least ready for the League due to his size and the fact that I think you can find players like him more easily than super-quick PG's like Lawson and rangy, athletic defenders like Green.
I think Danny could be a great perimeter defender if he chooses to focus on the defensive end.
The only rebuttal I would have to Danny going is that he would play a LOT next year--especially if Wayne is drafted. Marcus Ginyard gets the starting nod because he is an "in your jock" type of on-ball defender. Roy Williams will not sit a productive senior (which Green would be) and I think a 10-man rotation would allow Roy to ramp up the pace more to his liking. Depth was actually a concern in late midseason.
Do I see all three back next year in Carolina Blue? No. But at least one will return and I don't think it will be Ty Lawson.
from 4 months ago
Thanks for the read Greg, my idea about Green's time being limited centered around the idea that all three came back together so him, Wayne, Marcus and Will would be sharing minutes at the 2-3 spot, Will of course receiving the least.
I definitely think defense will be Green's niche in the NBA and getting a talent like him in the second round would be a steal for some lucky team. He is Carolina's second best defender currently and in my opinion plays better help defense than Ginyard. The kid really does get the idea of team defense.
A ten man rotation in the Hill would be scary especially with Larry Drew being the perimeter scoring threat that Lawson hasn't been. I like the Heels' chances should the trio return but I think they'd be wise to leave. I don't see how playing another season deferring to Hansbrough and playing in the ACC really ups their status for 2009.
4 months ago
Tyler took 463 shots
Wayne took 437 shots
Not that much different, especially since most of Hansbrough's shots are a lot closer to the basket
If Wayne drove more and was more aggressive he could learn to create his own shot and get to the rim so Hansbrough wouldn't have to take as many shots
Danny took 300 shots, off the bench thats a ton
Lawson only took 230, but he was out for what like 8 games and wasn't exactly himself in all of them that he played
I liked some of the reasons but not the offensive number part. Hansbrough ahd to carry the team with Lawson out because no one else really stepped up.
4 months ago
Green will play a lot of minutes next season if he returns, so that's kind of a ridiculous argument.
Ellington needs to improve in decision making/shot selection. I had a love hate relationship with Wayne this past season because he would take some of the most ridiculous shots at the worst possible times, but would nail big shots in crucial situations. It's not so much that he would choke, but just make dumb decisions.
Lawson is the most ready to make an immediate impact for an NBA team. Speed, quickness and excellent floor vision will make him a top notch NBA point guard.
I am a die hard heels fan (you can tell that by the tat on my left upper arm), and would absolutely love to see all of them come back next year and make a title run. However, I don't think the Heels NEED them all back to have a solid team.
I think they could all help their NBA draft stock by coming back for another season, but that isn't the current trend. And honestly, who could blame them for wanting to go. That is a lot of money.
from 4 months ago
I'm with you, Justin, I'd like to see them all come back but can't blame them for leaving.
And I agree: Ty Lawson is so fast he's going to make some team (for Ty's sake, I hope it's a West Coast team) very happy.
from 4 months ago
Thanks for the read man, I hope that if Green returns he plays big minutes because in my opinion he's a special player who could start on any team in America.
Ellington does have serious issues with his shot selection and him coming down and putting up three's when we didn't need them was perplexing. I still think he's one of only three upper level true shooting guards in the draft right now and a great pure shooter.
Lawson is easily the most ready of the three and hopefully he'll blossom into the top tier point guard that Felton has yet to become here in Charlotte. I'd like to see him land with the Wizards or Cavs so that less of the scoring burden falls on him and he's not forced to run pick and roll situations that expose his most glaring flaw; a weak jump shot.
As Carolina guy it'd be nice if they all come back too, as an NBA fan I completely understand why they wouldn't.
4 months ago
Great insight, I'm hoping all three of them go. I agree that Willams coaching system really limits the potential of these three players.
4 months ago
How does this group compare to Felton, May, Williams, and McCants? If NBA execs have the previous crop of high profile UNC players in mind, it may be a long draft day for the new crop.
from 4 months ago
Joe, the group that recently declared isn't of nearly the same caliber. Lawson could possibly go on to have a better career than Felton. Otherwise, the 2005 class was far superior, especially offensively.
Ellington and Green just aren't polished offensively the same way McCants, Williams and even May were.
May was the beast of that group in college and injuries have limited his NBA career. But that was a darn good college group. I don't think of Ellington, Green and Lawson as that elite. But that's just my humble opinion.
My personal take is "once a Heel always a Heel"-- I'll root for the guys no matter what happens with the draft.
4 months ago
You're way off using Calhoun as an example of a coach holding players back.
Calhoun develops players better than any coach in college. Not only has Calhoun had the most players in the NBA but those players were less highly rated than the All Americans that Duke, Carolina, UK and, UCLA usually gets. How can a coach that gets more players to the league with less highly rated players be considered a coach that holds players back.
Player Ranking in HS Draft position
Ben Gordon Top 40 Lottery
Rip Hamilton Top 40 Lottery
Ray Allen Top 40 Lottery
Marcus Williams Top 40 First Round
Hilton Armstrong No ranking Lottery
Josh Boone top 80 First Round
Emeka Okafor top 100 Lottery
Charlie V top 10 Lottery
Rudy Gay top 10 Lottery
Donyell Marshall top 20 Lottery
Caron Butler top 20 Lottery
from 4 months ago
I couldn't agree more, Jamin. Not only was I trying to figure out how Calhoun could have made Michael's short list of coaches holding back players, but using Rip and Ray as examples is mind-boggling. Apparently he wasn't aware of the fact that the Calhoun's offense ran through both these guys as sophs and jrs, with both averaging more than 20ppg in those seasons.
Michael, what was going through your head by including Calhoun and referencing Ray and Rip?
4 months ago
I like the prognostication of next year's minutes. However, this year's draft is much deeper than next year. For that reason, Ellington and Lawson have a lot of competition to land a guaranteed contract in the 20-30 range of the first round. Green may not even be drafted.
If these players wait a year, up their game and enhance their exposure playing on a title-caliber team, they all move up due to improvements and lesser competition in the '09 draft class. Lawson needs a healthy season along with proving he can shoot from the free-throw line and 3-point land. Ellington can improve his ball handling and decision making. Green could be in the same situation as a guy drafted without a guaranteed contract in the 2nd round, so he may be better off leaving now and working his way up from the D League like a Kelenna Azubuike.
from 4 months ago
Good call Aron, I haven't really looked deep into the draft for 2009. Mostly because I don't know what the big time freshman coming in are going to do.
I agree that there are holes in all of their games but I think with NBA coaching they'd get filled quicker than in the system intensive world of college basketball.
I appreciate the read and thanks to everyone for being adult about the debate instead of the name calling and anonymous bickering that goes on so often in the comments section.
from 4 months ago
That's probably the best argument in my eyes, Aron. This year's class is so deep. Wait a year, get better and improve.
In any event, I don't know that Green or Ellington would be lottery picks next year--unless Wayne shoots up two inches, finds a quicker trigger and learns to play "D."
4 months ago
Anyone who thinks that Ellington,Lawson and Green can't imporve their draft status next season does not have a clue. Lawson and Ellington would more then likely double their money next season in a muck weaker 09 draft class. Green could do no worse in next yers draft because there's no way he is getting drafted in the first round this year. Anyone telling the 3 stay in is either looking to get paid or isn't a Carolina fan.
from 4 months ago
As I stated earlier, I haven't delved into the 2009 draft class because of the uncertainty surrounding the incoming freshman. If it is as weak as people expect it to be that wouldn't improve their status so much is it would just cause them to rise through the absence of other quality players.
Danny Green won't get drafted in the first round this year or next year, he doesn't get enough minutes or the autonomy to show he's a quality pick, he's the sixth man. Aside from Manu Ginobli and LeAndro Barbosa in the NBA sixth man means, good but not good enough.
You're final sentence: "Anyone telling the 3 stay in is either looking to get paid or isn't a Carolina fan"
What does being a fan have to do with assessing the individual benefits of leaving? I clearly state as a team UNC would reap the benefits of them coming back, #1 preseason, final four and winning a title. And another thing are you saying they should leave or did you mean to say "Anyone telling the 3 to leave" not "Anyone telling the 3 stay in."
The former makes more since with the rest of your argument. Thanks for the read sorry my objectivity and presentation of the other side irked you.
4 months ago
as a carolina fan... i really hope lawson comes back because there's no stopping carolina's offense when he's controlling it. we saw it last year- our offense wasn't as good without him, granted bobby frasor wasn't out there and is coming off an injury which isn't a good thing. thomas graduated. larry drew is only a freshman. if lawson comes back and the other two get drafted, carolina would move frasor to the two-guard. as for green and ellington, i hope only one of them come back, although i wouldn't mind both of them coming back- they're still young and inexperienced=== who cares about the money-it's still going to be there a year later. say green comes back, ginyard could be the two guard, and if wayne comes back, our second-best scorer for 08-09. i wish stephenson would have reconsidered his transfer, but hopefully everything goes well with him and his family. he was a vital part of carolina's frontcourt.
4 months ago
I think all will return,
The 2008 draftclass has about a dozen one shot wonders while the 2009 class is projected to have five or so one shot wonders. Only one is currently projected to go in the first round and that is in the bottom of the first round. The only guaranteed contracts are in the first round so for the rest of them they would be deffinately leaving school with no guaranteed salary. Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Sean May, Mccants were four players on the same team that were lottery picks with Jackie Manual, Noel, Miller, Scott, Terry, Jawad Williams all getting min. Three frosh will not deteriorate the min of two seniors and two Juniors as much as you seem to claim (especially come ACC play).
3 months ago
Personally, I think Ellington and Lawson should have gone, and Green should have stayed. But that's just me.
3 months ago
After watching that draft go down Thursday night, I definitely think that Lawson and Ellington should have stayed in. Lawson would have been a Top 20 pick and I truly believe Ellington would've been a first rounder.
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