Football Foolishness Week 1: Game Predictions, Hot Seats, Beating Vegas
(Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
Finally, it’s that time. College football is back. This article is the beginning of a weekly look at top games, teams, and names making news. I will also provide predictions for every game, along with some brief thoughts on select games. So without further ado…
What happens the morning after a night of chipotle-habanero wings? A HOT SEAT
Oh, no, there’s a wildfire in Indiana…wait, it’s okay folks, it's just the smoke billowing out from under Charlie Weis’ ample backside.
Is it just me or is the Rich Rodriguez tenure starting to feel a little like Billy Gillespie’s time at Kentucky?
Steve Kragthorpe needs to make like the stadium’s name (Papa John’s) and deliver.
Another down year and Al Groh will lose the R and H, and become Al Go.
“I’m sending out an SOS”….Steven Orr Spurrier needs QB Garcia to get the message this season.
Todd Dodge, I hope your son is as good as advertised, and that you have found a defense this offseason.
Finally, a memo to J.D. Brookhart at Akron, don’t open against Penn State when you are fighting for your job.
Another Worthless Ranking: My Preseason Top 10
10. Florida State
9. Ohio State
8. Penn State
7. Alabama
6. Virginia Tech
5. USC
4. Georgia
3. Oklahoma
2. Texas
1. Florida
Yes, that is Georgia, projected to be 11-1 against the nation’s toughest schedule. Yes, that is Florida State, projected to be 11-2. No, there is no Ole Miss or LSU. No Oklahoma State either. It’s my opinion (based on my own ranking system), so deal with it.
Finally, Let the Games Begin
FBS versus FCS…..All these coaches will be preaching Appalachian State
Air Force 31 Nicholls State 14
Arizona State 45 Idaho State 10
Arkansas 38 Missouri State 14
Arkansas State 24 Miss Valley State 6
Boston College 28 Northeastern 3
Duke 27 Richmond 17 Upset Alert
East Carolina 35 Appalachian State 20
Florida 66 Charleston Southern 7
Fresno State 31 UC-Davis 13
Georgia Tech 35 Jacksonville State 0
Hawaii 42 UCA 26 Upset Alert
Houston 45 Northwestern St. 14
Indiana 31 Eastern Kentucky 16
Iowa 38 Northern Iowa 3
Kansas 56 Northern Colorado 14
Kansas State 33 UMass 17
Kent State 28 Coastal Carolina 13
La-Lafayette 37 Southern 9
Michigan State 45 Montana State 7
Miss State 38 Jackson State 10
North Carolina 52 Citadel 12
Oregon State 38 Portland State 14
Pittsburgh 34 Youngstown St. 7
South Florida 39 Wofford 13
SMU 44 Stephen F. Austin 23
Southern Miss 49 Alcorn St. 7
Temple 23 Villanova 14 Upset Alert
Texas Tech 59 North Dakota 17
UCF 31 Samford 8
UNLV 36 Sacramento St. 17
Vanderbilt 35 Western Carolina 13
Virginia 34 William and Mary 10
West Virginia 45 Liberty 6
Wyoming 37 Weber State 16
1 Star Games (Well, these will be better than an Arena League Game...)
Texas 51 La-Monroe 14 ULM +41
Ohio State 42 Navy 7 OSU -22.5
USC 40 San Jose State 7 SJSU +35
Penn State 49 Akron 17 PSU -26.5
Tennessee 35 Western Kentucky 10 WKU +30.5
Utah 41 Utah State 17 UTAH -21
LSU 31 Washington 7 LSU -16.5
Michigan 40 Western Michigan 17 UM -11.5
Kentucky 42 Miami, OH 20 UK -14
2 Star Games (Well, these are better than watching the CFL…)
Auburn 28 Louisiana Tech 9 AU -13
UCLA 31 San Diego State 12 UCLA -17.5
Wisconsin 34 Northern Illinois 16 WI -16.5
Oklahoma 45 BYU 28 BYU +22
Florida State 27 Miami, FL 10 FSU -5
Clemson 30 Middle Tenn State 14 MTSU +19.5
3 Star Games (Well, these are better than watching NFL Exhibitions…)
Ole Miss 35 Memphis 21 MEM +17
Troy 27 Bowling Green 14 TR -6.5
Texas A&M 23 New Mexico 10 NM +14.5
Boise State 34 Oregon 22 BS -5.5
Notre Dame 36 Nevada 24 NV +14.5
Colorado 26 Colorado State 14 CU -11
Nebraska 30 Florida Atlantic 20 FAU +21.5
Arizona 41 Central Michigan 30 CMU +12.5
UAB 27 Rice 17 UAB -4.5
4 Star Games (Well, they will beat an NFL Regular Season game any day…)
UTEP 30 Buffalo 21 UTEP -6.5
Purdue 26 Toledo 17 TOL +12
Wake Forest 29 Baylor 20 WFU -1
California 28 Maryland 20 MD +21.5
Stanford 35 Washington State 27 WSU +17
Missouri 34 Illinois 27 MO +7.5
Rutgers 21 Cincinnati 16 RUT +6
Eastern Michigan 26 Army 21 ARMY +6
Minnesota 24 Syracuse 19 SYRA +7.5
5 Star Games (Well, this is what we’ve been waiting for since January…)
Georgia 24 Oklahoma State 21 UGA +6.5
The ‘Dawgs running game and defense will make a difference, as Georgia picks up a huge opening season win.
Alabama 17 Virginia Tech 14 VT +7
Two great defensiveve minds square off, but Alabama has a little more explosiveness on offense, though Tyrod Taylor will keep it close.
Tulsa 27 Tulane 24 TLN +14
The Golden Hurricane break in a new offensive coordinator, while the Wave try to wipe away a dismal season.
New Mexico State 23 Idaho 20 ID +4
The Aggies win the initial battle to stay out of the WAC (and nation’s) cellar.
South Carolina 23 North Carolina St. 21 SC +4
This is Steve Spurrier’s last chance to prove that he has not lost the magic touch, while the always underrated Tom O’Brien continues to build the Pack.
Connecticut 23 Ohio 21 O +4.5
My prediction is for a stellar season for the Bobcats, so it would not be a huge surprise if they are the MAC’s first winner over a BCS team.
Ball State 32 North Texas 30 NT +18
It’s a game that no one will care about, but it should be one of the more exciting match-ups of the opening weekend. North Texas’ offense should be much improved, while Ball State adjusts to life without Nate Davis or coach Brady Hoke.
What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas
I have no interest in gambling away my money, but if you will notice, I made predictions for the point spread for each of the games. This season, I am attempting to see if my “system” has been refined enough to “beat Vegas.” Each week, during the weekly recap, you’ll see how well I did.
Also, there are some games each week in which the “system” varies significantly from the Vegas line, what most sites and data folks call “locks.” The five locks this week:
Ohio State -22.5 over Navy (projection is 35.3)
Michigan -11.5 over Western Michigan (projection is 23.2)
Florida State -5 over Miami, FL (projection is 16.6)
Rutgers +6 over Cincinnati (projection is Rutgers by 5.4)
Tulane +14 over Tulsa (projection is Tulsa by 2.7)
Why it’s not my fault
If these projections are way off, it’s not my fault because I spent too much time dissecting the six preseason snaps taken by Michael Vick.
Comments always welcome.
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