New England Patriots: Is the Dynasty Over?

By Derek Lofland

Now that everyone has recovered from watching the Pro Bowl, witnessing all of the free agency signings, and over-analyzing the NFL draft, it is time to get back to business.

The Patriots losing Super Bowl XLII has created the opportunity to write a lot of interesting articles that many of us never thought were possible just a few months ago.

In addition to recapping the Super Bowl, I have looked at the Patriots' standing among the greatest teams never to win a Super Bowl Ring. But as our famous Little Red Riding Hood so eloquently put, "The past is in the past."

One of the most interesting takes I have seen on message boards, heard on talk shows or watched on TV is the sentiment by Patriot fans that the fans of the other 31 NFL clubs need not worry because the Patriots will be back in the Bowl again next season.

While I can't blame them for being optimistic, I get a kick out of that. You would think after being so certain that their team would go 19-0 this season that it would take a little longer than a week for Patriot fans to count their 19-0 shirts before they hatch. Many of them were singing the “next year” chant the very night the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

Seeing the past is in the past, I figured it would be interesting to see if the future is also the future. I don't have tea leaves or a crystal ball with which I can see the future. Therefore, I decided to do what I often do in these situations. I look at NFL History.

Is the Boston fan correct in assuming that his or her team will be back on the biggest stage as early as next season? I thought of finding an answer to this query by looking at it from three different perspectives.  

1) How have the teams that finished a season with one or fewer losses since 1960 done the following season?
2) How have teams done the season after losing the Super Bowl?
3) How long have the previous dynasties managed to keep their window of dominance open?
 
1) If we look at how the teams with one loss or fewer did the next season since 1960, it really doesn't look promising for the Patriots. Here is how those teams did after losing one game or less the season after their historic run.

1962 Packers (13-1) -Finished 11-2-1 in 1963. Second in Division. No Playoffs
1968 Colts (13-1) - Finished 8-5-1 in 1969.  Second in Division.  No Playoffs
1972 Dolphins (14-0) - Finished 12-2 in 1973.  Won Super Bowl 24-7.  
1984 49ers (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1985.  Lost Wildcard Game 17-3.  
1985 Bear (15-1) - Finished 14-2 in 1986.  Lost Divisional Game 27-13.
1998 Vikings (15-1) - Finished 10-6 in 1999.  Lost Divisional Game 49-37.  
2004 Steelers (15-1) - Finished 11-5 in 2005.  Won Super Bowl 21-10

Clearly, the bottom didn't fall out. If anyone thinks the Patriots are doomed to miss the playoffs in 2008, they are probably kidding themselves, especially when you consider the division in which they reside.

It seems hard to believe that the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets can close the gap considerably in only one season with their draft selections and the new free agents they brought in.

All of the teams after 1970 on this list at least made the playoffs the following season. Six of the seven teams at least posted double-digit win totals.

Had the 1963 playoffs used the current format, the Packers would have made the playoffs. Furthermore, they might have competed with the Bears for the title had Paul Hornung not been suspended for the 1963 season for allegedly videotaping his opponents Super Bowl practice…excuse me, I meant gambling on NFL games. Sorry Patriots fans, I couldn’t resist.

However, every team had a worst record in their next campaign. The only teams that didn’t have a noticeable decline in the regular season were the 1972 Dolphins and 1985 Bears. I don't think Boston fans will be happy with 11 or 12 wins and a first round loss in 2008. The ring will be the only expectation.

When you look at it from this angle, history shows that the Patriots will probably post double-digit wins and make the playoffs, but not be back in the Super Bowl next season.

Only two of these teams were able to reach the Super Bowl the following year. The 1973 Miami team was coming off their 17-0 Super Bowl season when they repeated, and the ‘05 Steelers needed to win four road playoff games to win their Super Bowl.

Patriot fans will argue that they have a number of things going for them that the other teams didn’t have. Tom Brady will be the first thing. Randy Moss is the second one.

Then there is the Patriot way: they don’t rebuild; they just reload. With their first round draft pick used to get LB Jerod Mayo they should be able to improve the defense and things will be even better. Besides, did I mention Tom Brady is still on the team?

I would point to the 1985 San Francisco 49ers. Brady is often compared to Montana and the 49ers had an excellent front office in place during the 80s.

They had Hall of Fame QB Joe Montana in the prime of his career. He had an All Pro season in 1985. Roger Craig was entering just his third season.

In 1985, he would become the first player in NFL History to obtain 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. Furthermore, they drafted a certain wide receiver in the 1985 draft named Jerry Rice. We know the Patriots didn’t draft a wide receiver better than that.

The 49ers still dropped five games in the standings and lost their first playoff game 17-3. There was a four-year gap between their 1984 Super Bowl season and 1988 Super Bowl season. They went 0-3 in the playoffs in 1985, 1986, and 1987.

It just isn't a guarantee. The Patriots have a lot of talent. They have a great structure in place. However, 2007 was a very magical season. They had great chemistry to start the season.

They benefited from the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets being in their division. They escaped some close games against the Colts, Eagles, Giants, and Ravens that didn't have to go their way. While they did have some injuries to deal with, they stayed healthy at their most important positions. None of that has to happen next season.

The Patriots could be the same team talent-wise to start the upcoming season and have a worse record due to things beyond their control. I would be extremely surprised if they did not lose at least three or even four games next season. I just don’t think they will have those favorable factors on their side go their way for a second consecutive season.

2) I don't want to bore people with how the previous 42 Super Bowl losers did the following season. Let’s just look at the last 10 seasons instead.

1998 Green Bay Packers - 11-5 Second place NFC Central, Lost 27-30 @ San Fran WC Rd

1999 Atlanta Falcons - 5-11 Third Place NFC South, No Playoffs

2000 Tennessee Titans - 13-3 First Place AFC South, Lost 10-24 Baltimore Div Rd
2001 NY Giants - 7-9 Fourh NFC East, No Playoffs
2002 St. Louis Rams - 7-9 Third NFC West, No Playoffs
2003 Oakland Raiders - 4-12 Fourth AFC West, No Playoffs
2004 Carolina Panthers - 7-9 Third Place NFC South, No Playoffs
2005 Philadelphia Eagles - 6-10 Fourth Place NFC East, No Playoffs
2006 Seattle Seahawks - 9-7 First Place NFC West, Lost 27-24 @ Chicago Div Rd
2007 Chicago Bears - 7-9 Fourth Place NFC Central, No Playoffs

As you can see, this looks even less promising. Only three previous Super Bowl losers managed to qualify for the playoffs the following season. Only two of the teams managed double-digit wins the next season. Only two won their division. Seattle was the only team to win one playoff game. The 2000 Tennessee Titans is the only team that arguably got better, but was upset in their first playoff game by eventual champion Baltimore.

Again, the Patriots have a different dynamic because they have a Hall of Fame QB in the prime of his career. While it is true that Kerry Collins and Rex Grossman are not on par with Tom Brady, some of the other teams had some pretty good signal callers.

The ‘97 Packers had Brett Favre in his prime. Donovan McNabb and Steve McNair are clearly not Tom Brady-caliber, but were still very solid QBs. Kurt Warner was coming off two MVP awards in his previous three seasons and had 36 TD passes in 2001. He went on to become injury prone. Having a great QB does not make you immune to a slip in record. A great QB can only do so much.

The last Super Bowl loser to return to it the following season was the 1992 Buffalo Bills, who would return to the Super Bowl to lose their final and fourth straight Super Bowl in 1993. The only teams to lose a Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl the following season were the 1971 Cowboys and…you guessed it the 1972 Dolphins.  

3) The last two criteria used didn’t produce much promise for the Patriots. Let’s analyze the previous dynasties now. How long does the window typically stay open? Obviously, it will vary from team to team. Here are some of the more notable ones since 1960:   

1960s Packers - Their first year of legitimacy was the 1960 season when they lost the NFL Title to the Philadelphia Eagles. They won their last Super Bowl in the 1967 season, which was clearly their worst team. They failed to qualify for the playoffs with the main players in the dynasty after 1967.  (Eight-year window)

1970s Dolphins - They made their first playoff appearance with this group in 1970. They went to the first of their three Super Bowls in 1971. The Dolphins peaked in 1972 with their perfect season and repeated in 1973. While they would make the playoffs in 1974 and lose a heartbreaker to Oakland, the core players only made the playoffs twice after that losing each time in the first round. (Five-year window)

1970s Steelers - This team's run basically started in 1972 with the Immaculate Reception. The Steelers would win Super Bowls in 1974 and 1975. They would also win Super Bowls in 1978 and 1979. They would make the playoffs only one more time in the 1982 strike-shortened season before this group was done. (Eight-year window)

1970s Cowboys - The Cowboys are a little more difficult to figure out. They had a winning record from 1966 to 1985. However, I don’t think their window lasted 20 years.  There were different core players over that span. The Meredith window was open for only three years.

While Danny White was a good quarterback, the Cowboys were not the dominant team of the early 1980s. The Cowboys best period of success was the Staubach era. He was the starter on the 1971 Super Bowl team. They appeared in their last Super Bowl in the Staubach era in 1978. He retired in 1979 following a playoff loss. (Nine-year window)

1980s 49ers - The Cowboys are similar to the 49ers in that their window stayed open a long time mainly because they had two Hall of Fame QBs on their roster. The 49ers won their first playoff game in their 1981 Super Bowl season and won their last playoff game with Joe Montana in the 1990 season. The Montana window lasted an entire decade. (10-Year window)

1980s Redskins - Joe Gibbs took over in 1981 and by 1982, he had won his first Super Bowl. He would win his last title in 1991 and make the playoffs for the last time in 1992 before retiring. It's hard to say when the era begins or ends, because Gibbs won three Super Bowls with three different starting QBs. While the Gibbs era lasted about 10 seasons, there is really nothing quite like it in NFL history.  (10-Year window)

1990s Cowboys - The Triplet led Cowboys qualified for their first Playoff Game in 1991. They won their last Super Bowl in 1995. They lost in the divisional round in 1996 to Carolina and never won a playoff after the 1996 season. (Six-year window)

What this tells us is that the past NFL dynasties were essentially able to remain viable for about a five to 10 year period. The 70s Dolphins and 90s Cowboys sustained the shortest periods of success at about five years, while the 70s Cowboys and 80s 49ers probably had the longest window with the same QB going about 10 seasons.

One could argue that the Patriots have the ability to remain relevant for longer because Brady will be only 31 next season and they can use free agency and the draft to improve their other needs on a year-to-year basis. However, the other teams in their conference have the ability to do the same thing.

Others could argue that with the level of contracts these Patriots will demand, and with the turnover in NFL rosters, the salary cap will make it harder for them to keep their stellar team intact.

Regardless of different opinions on the dynamics of the current NFL system, the Patriots dynasty began with the 2001 season and next year will be the 2008 season. They will be entering the eighth season of their dynasty. History tells us they are near the end of their run. They probably have two or three seasons left at the most.

While seeing the Favres and Elways perform at a high level in their late 30s, it gives Patriot fans hope that the Patriots will be relevant under Tom Brady for the next eight to 10 years. Quarterbacks usually start to decline in their mid-30s.

Brady has been more fortunate than Montana in that he doesn’t have the back issues that plagued the middle of Montana’s career. Brady has been relatively healthy so far, and that gives him a chance to extend his career into a long one.

While the Patriots could still win with Brady at quarterback later in his career, they will probably need to rely more on the running game and defense similar to what the Broncos did with Terrell Davis in the later years of Elway's tenure. While Favre proved this year that it is possible for a 38-year-old QB to lead a high-powered passing offense; that is the exception, not the rule.

That creates a problem for the Patriots. Their defense is definitely on the decline.
While statistically it ranked fourth in the NFL this season, I think even most die-hard Patriot fans will admit that was not the fourth best defensive unit in the NFL.

Part of the reason for the lofty success was what the offense brought to the table. It is a lot easier to play defense with a four-touchdown lead when the other team is forced to pass the ball every play.

They have many decisions to make on defense. The defensive line is in very good shape. Seymour, Warren, and Wilfork are all under 30 years old. However, their linebackers are extremely old. Bruschi will be 35 at the start of next season. Vrabel will be 33 years old. Seau will be 39 years old.

Their only young linebacker is Thomas and he is going to be 31 years old. Roosevelt Colvin was injured last season and may not be back with the team in 2008. Then if you look in the secondary, Rodney Harrison will turn 36 next season.

He has one year remaining on his deal and is expected to return. Their best defensive player, CB Asante Samuel signed with the Eagles. Hobbs is a pretty solid defender, but not as a number one corner.

The Patriots will be facing the task of not only overhauling the linebackers, but also probably making wholesale changes in the secondary. That isn’t going to necessarily translate into the defense being better next season. They may have to take a step back to take two steps ahead. That will hurt their record and might take a couple years for that transformation to pay dividends.

Next, they have some issues on offense. Will 31-year-old Randy Moss have any motivation left to play at a grandiose level now that he has cashed in a contract extension? Donte’ Stallworth went on to sign with the Cleveland Browns. How does that affect Welker?

While he had a great statistical year, he played most of the season in the slot against single coverage. Is he ready to be a number two guy?

Kevin Faulk is starting to get older. That is key because Maroney has not shown he is a great receiving threat. While the offensive line is basically 30 years old on average, give or take a year, they have some issues to address there.

They were beaten up pretty badly by some of the speedy pass rushes in the second half of the season, particularly against San Diego and the NY Giants in the playoffs. The fact is that Little Red Riding Hood realized that this was going to be their last best chance.

He broke the bank adding a linebacker in his 30s for the tune of $66 million. He added three new wide receivers. Last off-season was not about building for the future. It was about winning a Super Bowl this year. While he certainly didn't mortgage the farm with those moves, like Daniel Snyder seems to do every season, they were made with one goal in mind: The 2007-08 Lombardi Trophy.

That is why he traded for the 49er draft pick last year. Mr. Hood knew he was going to need the next couple of years to get that defense younger and he wanted as many picks as possible to do so.

Even if the Spy Gate development had not taken a first round pick away from them, I'm not sure if having a top 10 pick and a pick at the end of the first round would have been enough to retool a defense that realistically needs five new starters.

So far we have only talked about the Patriot's problems. Do you think the Chargers, Colts, Jags, and Steelers were happy about what transpired last year? They won’t be the same dominant team in 2008. They will make efforts to improve. Their drafts and their free agency will have one goal in mind: to make sure the Patriots do not run away with 2008.  

I am not implying there is only doom and gloom in Boston. Clearly, the Patriots are not in a terrible position. It is better to be the Patriots than many of the other teams. They have arguably the best QB in the game on their roster. That is the hardest commodity to find.

They have a young running back. While history shows us not to expect 23 touchdown receptions in 2008, Randy Moss still has some All-Pro caliber years in front of him.

They have a Hall of Fame coach in Belichick that has shown a history of making tough, but correct personnel decisions. If the Patriots had not attempted to get young by not resigning key players a few years ago they would be in a much worse spot today.

While you have to keep the future in mind, you can’t do it at the expense of the moment. He has been excellent at balancing those two conflicting philosophies. Finally, they have an owner that will allow the football people to determine what is best for the future of the organization. You won’t have a Jerry Jones or Daniel Snyder-type sticking their noses into areas they have no clue.

However, the Patriots are clearly closer to the end of their run than they are the beginning of it. Unlike the 1984 49ers, they probably can’t afford to wait four years to win another ring. History shows us one thing. The end is usually fast and unexpected.

The ‘66 Packers were an All-Time great team. The ‘67 Packers won the Super Bowl but were already on the decline. In the successive '68 season, they couldn’t even finish with a .500 record.

After making the Super Bowl three consecutive seasons, the 1974 Dolphins lost their first round playoff game to Oakland on a heartbreaking fourth quarter throw by Ken Stabler. By 1975, they were never a viable contender going forward.
 
When the 1997 Packers lost their Super Bowl to Denver, I thought they still had a number of good runs left with Favre. There was a lot of young talent on that team. They still made the playoffs in ‘98 and lost to the 49ers on the Catch II. They missed the playoffs in ‘99 and 2000, and they needed until 2001 to win another playoff game with mostly different personnel.

Going forward from 2001 has had mixed results. Back in 1997, I certainly didn’t think Favre would need 10 years to get back to the NFC Conference Championship.

When the Patriots time is done it will probably be no different. We probably won’t see it coming, and when it does it will be sudden and decisive. Again, I don't have a crystal ball.

The Patriots may go on to win the Super Bowl in 2008. The ‘97 Broncos, ‘05 Steelers, and ‘06 Colts were all able to win despite having better teams the year before that failed to capitalize on the moment. However, this indomitable version of the Patriots might never make the playoffs again. Only time will tell.

What I do know is that your best chance is the chance you have in front of you. The Patriots blew it. The only attitude you can have at that point if you are a part of the Patriot organization or are a fan is that they will take care of business next year.

The past is the past. The NFL world keeps moving forward. Logically, if you aren’t getting better, you are getting worse.

Patriot fans are no different from the Cowboys, Dolphins, 49ers, and Packers fans of the past in believing that success will last forever. We have been there, haven’t we? It just doesn't happen. There are too many factors working against you. The system is set up to tear you down, not build you up.

I don’t know with certainty whether or not the Patriots will win the Super Bowl next year. What I do know is that the last time the Patriots tried to take on NFL History, NFL History won.

From the looks of how these dominant one-season teams and Super Bowl losers fared the next season, it doesn’t look promising. From the looks of the past dynasties, the Patriots appear to be approaching the end, not the beginning.

It looks like they will have to take on NFL History again in 2008 if they want to win the Super Bowl. Stay tuned.

Derek Lofland is the NFL director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs.com