A Brad Penny for Your Thoughts: When MLB "Expert" Analysts Abandon All Reason

Andrew Nuschler by Senior Writer Written on September 01, 2009
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The National League West has received an infusion of new faces over the last 24 hours.

Our beloved San Francisco Giants claimed Brad Penny off waivers and will pay him a prorated portion of the Major League Baseball minimum for the rest of the year.

I've never been a fan of Penny's because I think he's a hothead and not entirely committed to the game—a dude his size should be able to give you more than six or seven innings. However, as a fifth starter in the less explosive NL West, the former All-Star should be a nice addition.

Considering the organization gave up no talent and little money (in the asinine world of professional sports), I like the gamble even if I'm not thrilled about the individual.

Additionally, both the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers were desperate for starting pitchers, so San Francisco successfully blocked both rivals from possibly the best arm of the new group.

The Rockies were active as well, trading for Jose Contreras.

I haven't heard of the guy they sent to the Chicago White Sox, nor do I have a good idea of the Rox' farm system, but I doubt he was a high-level prospect. Contreras has been so bad recently that I actually feel a little guilty for successfully using him as trade bait in one of my fantasy leagues.

After a strong start, he's been brutal, so—even accounting for the gentler batting orders—I'm not sure Colorado got better.

Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers shored up their bench and rotation for their postseason run.

The Bums grabbed Jim Thome, Ronnie Belliard, and Jon Garland from the White Sox, Washington Nationals, and Arizona Diamondbacks (respectively). Aside from Garland, these are all moves for the playoffs and possible World Series, where a designated hitter would be necessary.

Thome can't play in the field; he's played all of 28 innings at first base since 2005, and both sides of the new equation have acknowledged he'd only play the field in an emergency.

Belliard can play defense, but he's an infielder, and LA's inside leather is full-up. Though the former Nat could spell any position—although he's played sparingly at shortstop over the last few years—he doesn't figure to be an everyday player.

Garland, on the other hand, is a nice acquisition if for no other reason than (A) it doesn't sound like the Bums parted with much, and (B) the back of their rotation needed help. The tall righty isn't going to dominate splinters on most nights, but he'll get torched about as often.

All you can ask from the last man standing is to keep you in most starts, and Garland can answer that bell.

Despite all the talking points in that sea of transactions, what has my attention more than anything else is the UTTER INSANITY coming from the so-called experts. It's amazing what these guys are spewing forth. You know, because they're paid to digest and analyze this sort of data in a sound manner.

Allegedly.

Two offenders in particular caught my eye: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and the notorious John Kruk of ESPN.

Over the years, I've come to appreciate Rosenthal.

The condescending grin slathered on his face during his on-camera appearances still bugs me to no end, but that's a subjective thing on which I could be totally off. More importantly, the dude gets rock-solid inside information.

Granted, one means of greasing the flow of dope seems to be pandering to the sources via his columns and appearances—if Scott Boras ever needs a sympathetic ear, I'm sure he's got Ol' Kenny's number on speed dial.

But who am I to judge the methods to his madness? Especially since they're effective to his ends.

However, when Rosenthal ventures into analysis, that's where I bail off the bandwagon.

For instance, he says that one year at $10 million for an innings-eater with an earned run average around (but over) the league average "would not be a bad investment." Since the Dodgers are one of the big spenders, that price tag is no big deal.

Fine, except then what's all the fuss over Barry Zito?

When the Giants signed him for seven years at about $18 million per year, he was an innings eater with an ERA below the league average, and the southpaw boasted a much higher strikeout rate than Garland. Furthermore, he was a former Cy Young winner, moving to a league less prone to offensive eruption, and San Francisco is a high-revenue club.

Don't give me the difference in average market value from 2007 to 2009—if anything, that's another bullet point for my argument due to the financial collapse.

To me, this is just another example of Kenny looking for reasons to put a smile on the collective face of the Dodgers' brass. After all, the Dodgers and Anaheim Angels are to FOX Sports what the Red Sox and New York Yankees are to ESPN—the sugar daddy media markets closest to home.

Of course, some of Rosenthal's faulty analysis has no apparent hidden agenda.

Later in the linked piece, he takes a shot at the weaker NL by listing the pitchers who've moved there and thrived. He chooses Cliff Lee and John Smoltz before stating, if Contreras finds new life in Colorado, "the NL should be officially designated Class AAAA."

Last I checked, Lee is the reigning American League Cy Young in 2008 and was pitching pretty well in 2009 before the trade.

Meanwhile, Smoltz moved from the AL East, which has so much offense and scrutiny it's the equivalent to pitching on the sun, and his peripherals weren't so bad even there. Oh, and what the "thriving" Smoltzie has done for the St. Louis Cardinals has been against the San Diego Padres and the Nationals—the worst offense in baseball and the worst team in baseball.

So perhaps we need to hold the phone before we judge the entire National League by those isolated entries. The Junior Circuit is the stronger of the two, there is no doubt about that. But if you're going to so flippantly dump on the Senior Circuit, an "expert" should back it up with better evidence.

Ultimately, though, I like what Ken Rosenthal brings to the table and think his overall skill set is an asset to any media outlet lucky enough to have him.

John Kruk? Ummm...

Kruk may be a perfectly good human being, and I don't mean to imply he's a bad person, but DAMN. For a guy who was a fine ballplayer and had a nice career, he certainly doesn't seem to know squat about the machinations of the game.

Take, for example, this little gem of a video clip where Krukie expounds on the Dodgers' acquisition of Thome.

The bejowled one was doing fine, pointing out Thome was most definitely NOT brought over to play first, etc., etc. Unfortunately, he couldn't stop there—he had to add that special Kruk seasoning. According to the mullet with a mouth, the only reason the Dodgers would pull the trigger would be to block the Giants from reinforcing their wobbly offense by plugging the slugger in at first.

Wait...what? How exactly would that work?

The man just finished explaining how Thome cannot play first anymore; now he's saying San Francisco wanted him for just that reason? Not only that, Kruk says the move would've turned the Giants into the favorite for the NL Wild Card and maybe even to represent the National League in the World Series.

Wow. That's a simply astounding and thorough bit of self-contradiction. In the span of 45 seconds.

I also heard John say he expected the Atlanta Braves to make a run down the stretch and grab the NL Wild Card. Totally reasonable, except he pointed to their starting pitching as the reason.

Am I the only one not totally sold on Tim freakin' Hudson as the savior?

And if it's starting pitching you're after, how about the San Francisco Giants?

They just added a safer bet than Hudson as their fifth starter, and they already stacked up better against the Bravos rotation: Tim Lincecum vs. Javier Vazquez; Matt Cain vs. Jair Jurrjens; Barry Zito vs. Derek Lowe; Kenshin Kawakami vs. Jonathan Sanchez; and now Penny vs. Hudson.

Even if rookie flamethrower Tommy Hanson continues to take the ball right up until the end of the season, the rotation still slants towards the Gents.

Atlanta might very well pull through and return to the playoffs, but it won't be because of superior pitching. Easier finish, better team balance, superior manager, etc. are all reasonable hypotheses.

Instead, Kruk went for the one area where the Braves lag behind the NL Wild Card-leading San Francisco Giants, and pretty undeniably at that.

Nobody can say for sure what will happen in the final month of the Major League Baseball season. There are too many variables coming from too many directions to say this team will survive and this team won't.

All anyone can do is give an educated guess and outline his or her reasoning, which will almost always meet a mixed reception. So I'm not demanding perfection from the so-called experts. I'm not even demanding logical analysis with which I agree.

What I do demand is logical analysis of some kind.

Yet with increasing frequency, that's precisely what we're not getting.


**www.pva.org**

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written on September 01, 2009 Opinion

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