Ranking the ACC Coastal: Six Significant Factors, One Ticket to Tampa

Football season is right around the corner and below you will find predictions about how the teams in the Coastal division of the ACC may finish (check my other articles for the Atlantic Predictions).

This list rates the teams in order from last to first in how they may finish in their division. No attempt is made a predicting a teams win-loss column.

Warning, this isn’t your average mainstream media predictions. You may find my list in a significantly different order than most out there right now.

Six factors were used in the making of this list and here they are:

2008 wins—In order to be favorable the team must have won at least eight games

How they performed in second half of 2008—The win/loss columns from the second half of last season.

ACC away schedule—A simple measure of how difficult the teams ACC away schedule is in 2009

Living up to expectations—Historically how the team typically performs compared to how they are expected to finish in their division.

QB Experience—Does the team start a junior or senior?

Defense—Does the team have a top 25 defense nationally and do they return most starters

Sixth (Tie): Duke

2008 wins—unfavorable, 4-8

How they performed second half of 2008—unfavorable, they were 0-5 in there last five games.

ACC away schedule—Neutral with away games at North Carolina, NC State, Virginia and Miami.

Living up to expectations—Typically perform the same as preseason expectations

QB experience—favorable, Thaddeus Lewis is a Senior

Defense—unfavorable, 50th nationally

Sixth (Tie): Miami

2008 wins—unfavorable, 7-6

How they performed second half of 2008—unfavorable, last five games finished 2-3

ACC away schedule—somewhat unfavorable with away games at North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State and Virginia Tech.

Living up to expectations—Typically perform worse than expectations

QB experience—unfavorable, Jacory Harris is a sophomore

Defense—unfavorable, 56th nationally

Fourth: Virginia

2008 wins—unfavorable, 5-7

How they performed second half of 2008—unfavorable, finished 0-4 last four games

ACC away schedule—somewhat unfavorable, play away at UNC, Clemson, Maryland and Miami

Living up to expectations—Typically perform slightly better than expectations

QB experience—favorable, Vic Hall is a Senior

Defense—unfavorable, finished 38th nationally

Third: North Carolina

2008 wins—favorable, 8-5

How they performed second half of 2008—unfavorable, 2-3 in last five games

ACC away schedule—unfavorable, away games at NC State, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Virginia Tech

Living up to expectations—Typically perform slightly better than preseason expectations

QB experience—favorable, Junior T.J. Yates

Defense—Neutral, finished 32nd nationally

Second Virginia Tech

2008 wins—favorable, 10-4

How they performed second half of 2008—favorable, finished 5-1 in last six games

ACC away schedule—Very favorable, away games at Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Maryland.

Living up to expectations—Typically performs equal to expectations

QB experience—favorable, Tyrod Taylor is a Junior

Defense—favorable, finished ninth nationally

First: Georgia Tech

2008 wins—favorable, 9-4

How they performed second half of 2008—favorable, 3-2 in last five games

ACC away schedule—somewhat favorable, away games at Duke, Virginia, Florida State and Miami

Living up to expectations—Typically outperforms expectations

QB experience—favorable, Junior Josh Nesbitt

Defense—Neutral, finished 28th nationally

Let's Recap

The teams who won at least eight games last season make up the top three positions of this list.

Unlike the Atlantic division, in which every team except Maryland finished the second half of 2008 favorably, the only teams in the coastal that finished above .500 in the second half of 2008 were Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have favorable ACC away schedules while the rest of the Coastal do not.

Georgia Tech typically finishes a spot or two above where they are expected to in the preseason division rankings.

Miami has the least experience at quarterback in the Coastal, every other team starts at least a Junior in the position.

Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina boast the best defenses in the Coastal.