This article is in response to Will Ojanen’s excellent entry on ACCNation.com that listed four ACC early draft entrants: Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, J.J. Hickson, and Ty Lawson. Will also detailed what he thought their decisions should be. Here are mine.
Let’s start with the easiest decisions, then we can work our way down to the hardest.
Wayne Ellington is a good college player. He’s akin to younger J.J. Redick: not the senior year, driving to the lane, getting to the free throw line, scoring in bunches J.J. Redick, but the three-point-shooter, always looking for the jumper, shying away from physical contact J.J. Redick—with a somewhat slower release.
As with Redick, Ellington would benefit from another year of college basketball to see if he can put the whole package together.
With Hickson, another year just isn't going to season him any more than he already is. He’s a 6'10", 240 pound brick wall. Hickson’s hit 60 percent from the field, and the gentleman just devoured offensive and defensive rebounds, grabbing 11 percent and 21 percent of possible opportunities.
Will’s point about the "not caring about school" thing wouldn't bother me that much. My freshman to-do-list included beer and girls before schoolwork (as is the case for many a young man), so I’m willing to let him slide in this area.
I'd make the case that vetting his buddies is more important than putting emphasis on how much he liked school.
Final comment: if Sidney Lowe was your coach, how loyal to your school would you be?
For Lawson, it's tough to say whether or not he should go. I think he should go. He's an outstanding player with a fast motor. He had a ridiculous assist rate (33 percent) and a decent TO rate (20 percent).
I really like the fact that he shot such a high percentage from twos (almost 60 percent), but height is a concern. Will he be able to get off those high percentage shots in the NBA given that he's under six feet? I don't know, but another year of college won’t solve that conundrum either.
Green presents the most intriguing case. For the Heels, Green was a jack-of-all-trades. He shot threes, drove the lane, dished, played decent defense, and, of course, teabagged Greg Paulus.
The “master-of-none” portion also applies to Green. He didn’t do anything that warranted a big to-do. He didn’t play nearly as much as Lawson or Hansbrough. His offensive rating—116? So-so. Effective Field Goal Percentage—55 percent? OK. Rebounding —8.6 OR percent and 14.9 DR percent? Meh.
I disagree with Will’s comment that he “isn’t anything special.” Of all the UNC players, I think Green might end up becoming the best pro. He created significant match-up problems any time he entered the game—which wasn't nearly enough for my taste. At 6’4”, he’s tall enough to play shooting guard in the NBA, even though he plays the three or the four spot in college.
What do I think he should do? I think he ought to stay another year, crack the starting line-up, and put in the minutes to bulk up his stats. Roy might want to think about starting him over Deon Thompson.
(Aside: People talk about Chris Douglas-Roberts having “old man moves.” CD-R pales in comparison to Deon Thompson’s old man moves. Plodding turnaround jumper? Check. Slow-motion crossover in the lane? Check. Flailing elbows? Check. All he needs to do is raise one knee when shooting from the outside and he'd be my father.)
However, as Will alluded to in his article, Green comes from a difficult background and it might make sense for him to stay in the draft for his family. Either way, I've got a hunch he's going make a solid pro.
(All stats courtesy of kenpom.com.)
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4 months ago
Great article, Ben. I'm a big-time Carolina fan, so forgive me right off the bat.
I don't know if Hickson would benefit from another year of college, but he got eaten up by Hansbrough at NC State. He held his own in Chapel Hill but Tyler absolutely dominated him at the RBC Center. I know, I know, Hansbrough was player of the year and all, but the dominance wasn't physical--it was mental. In fact, Hickson didn't perform well toward the end of the season and just didn't look like he was "there"--it could have been that he had an eye turned toward the Draft, but I just think he would've played better. He has all the tools. He's going to need a good situation. A lot of "upside" there, if a franchise can be patient.
I actually agree that of the UNC trio that entered early, Danny Green may be the best pro prospect. He's long and athletic. He's not too polished offensively but could be a solid perimeter defender in the NBA--if he makes the effort. He does a lot of little things that you need in order to win.
Ty Lawson's a mystery to me. He shot a high percentage because he got a whole lotta layups in transition and by blowing past defenders in the halfcourt. However, after his injury, he never regained his full explosiveness and was forced to do more jump shooting. This is not a strength but as a pro he would actually be able to put more time into his shot.
Having said that, he is TERRIBLY efficient in the half court, limiting turnovers while finding open the man.
In transition, it just doesn't get much better than Ty Lawson. He'll even be fast at the next level.
Wayne probably scares me the most, I'd like to see him handle better. And that release, though pure, is, as you pointed out, a little slow. He also doesn't defend well enough to turn heads.
I love Wayne, I just think players like him are easier to find. He could actually use another year to hone his game at the college level. Maybe he could improve his draft position next year. He was a different player when Lawson was injured and I'd like to see if he could get shots in rhythm and find his spots with a different PG. Lawson just made our wing players so much better offensively, it's hard to separate how much was Wayne and how much was Wayne & Ty.
Sorry to ramble. Probably should have written a rebuttal to your rebuttal instead!
Again, great work.
from 4 months ago
Greg -
Many thanks for the kind words. Don't worry about the length; long well-thought out comments are great and always appreciated!
Hickson did get a royal butt-kicking by Hansbrough, but it should be noted that Hickson wasn't the only pro prospect abused by Hansbrough that year. I'm thinking that might have more to do with a team failure than Hickson in particular.
He's also, like many freshmen, bewildered a little by defense.
Your point is a good one though and should be duly noted.
I concur with your opinions about the UNC trio. What do you think? Should Hansbrough have gone?
from 4 months ago
I think Tyler should have gone. He was projected as a LATE first rounder, which means he could have been a contributor on a playoff-caliber team. That said, I'm ecstatic he's going to be 'Heel for one more season and am going to try to make the trek to the Dean Dome next year.
While his more highly-touted underclass counterparts (the Roses and Beasleys of the world) will likely enjoy 50-loss seasons (although the Bulls look to be a No. 1 overall draft pick away from the playoffs next year), he could have been a 12 ppg, 8 ppg sparkplug for a contender.
I also think that even though he MAY have hit his ceiling at UNC, NBA scouts are putting WAY too much emphasis on "upside" when it comes to Tyler. He's proven he can "score, board and run the floor" with the best in college basketball. I think he'll be a fine pro. Maybe not a star but I'm not sure any of the ACC guys we've been talking about are going to be, either.
Once again, great piece.
4 months ago
The Cavs need a guy who can take care of the rock and drop some dimes. I'm not sure if Lawson's got 19th pick potential, but he could be worth trading Wally, expiring contract and all, for a second rounder... that's just my opinion.
4 months ago
Thanks for the props Ben. Your check should be in the mail shortly...lol.
4 months ago
Agree with almost everything said. It would be selfish of me to want all my Heels to stay, they have to do whats best for themselves and their family. 100% agree Green will be the best pro, he is dangerous where ever you put him. Another year in Chapel Hill to work on his overall ball handling skills and he could be filthy in the NBA.
4 months ago
Matt -
I think you may be "in luck" with Green - as sad as that sounds. Green sprained his ankle on a dunk on thursday and appears he'll likely be out for the rest of the pre-draft camps. That might spur him to return to UNC.
Thanks for reading.
Ben
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