The NBA Draft—ACC Early Entries

This article is in response to Will Ojanen’s excellent entry on ACCNation.com that listed four ACC early draft entrants: Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, J.J. Hickson, and Ty Lawson.  Will also detailed what he thought their decisions should be.  Here are mine.

Let’s start with the easiest decisions, then we can work our way down to the hardest.

Wayne Ellington is a good college player.  He’s akin to younger J.J. Redick: not the senior year, driving to the lane, getting to the free throw line, scoring in bunches J.J. Redick, but the three-point-shooter, always looking for the jumper, shying away from physical contact J.J. Redick—with a somewhat slower release. 

As with Redick, Ellington would benefit from another year of college basketball to see if he can put the whole package together.

With Hickson, another year just isn't going to season him any more than he already is.  He’s a 6'10", 240 pound brick wall.  Hickson’s hit 60 percent from the field, and the gentleman just devoured offensive and defensive rebounds, grabbing 11 percent and 21 percent of possible opportunities. 

Will’s point about the "not caring about school" thing wouldn't bother me that much.  My freshman to-do-list included beer and girls before schoolwork (as is the case for many a young man), so I’m willing to let him slide in this area. 

I'd make the case that vetting his buddies is more important than putting emphasis on how much he liked school. 

Final comment: if Sidney Lowe was your coach, how loyal to your school would you be?

For Lawson, it's tough to say whether or not he should go. I think he should go. He's an outstanding player with a fast motor.  He had a ridiculous assist rate (33 percent) and a decent TO rate (20 percent). 

I really like the fact that he shot such a high percentage from twos (almost 60 percent), but height is a concern.  Will he be able to get off those high percentage shots in the NBA given that he's under six feet?  I don't know, but another year of college won’t solve that conundrum either.

Green presents the most intriguing case.  For the Heels, Green was a jack-of-all-trades.  He shot threes, drove the lane, dished, played decent defense, and, of course, teabagged Greg Paulus. 

The “master-of-none” portion also applies to Green.  He didn’t do anything that warranted a big to-do.  He didn’t play nearly as much as Lawson or Hansbrough.  His offensive rating—116? So-so.  Effective Field Goal Percentage—55 percent?  OK. Rebounding —8.6 OR percent and 14.9 DR percent? Meh.

I disagree with Will’s comment that he “isn’t anything special.”  Of all the UNC players, I think Green might end up becoming the best pro.  He created significant match-up problems any time he entered the game—which wasn't nearly enough for my taste.  At 6’4”, he’s tall enough to play shooting guard in the NBA, even though he plays the three or the four spot in college.

What do I think he should do?  I think he ought to stay another year, crack the starting line-up, and put in the minutes to bulk up his stats. Roy might want to think about starting him over Deon Thompson. 

(Aside: People talk about Chris Douglas-Roberts having “old man moves.”  CD-R pales in comparison to Deon Thompson’s old man moves. Plodding turnaround jumper? Check. Slow-motion crossover in the lane? Check.  Flailing elbows? Check. All he needs to do is raise one knee when shooting from the outside and he'd be my father.)

However, as Will alluded to in his article, Green comes from a difficult background and it might make sense for him to stay in the draft for his family.  Either way, I've got a hunch he's going make a solid pro.

(All stats courtesy of kenpom.com.)