Ranking the ACC Atlantic: Six Significant Factors, One Ticket To Tampa

Football season is right around the corner and over the next few slides you will find predictions about how the teams in the Atlantic division of the ACC may finish based upon six significant factors. (Check my other articles for the Coastal Predictions)

This list rates the teams in order from last to first in how they may finish in their division. No attempt is made at predicting a teams win loss column.

Warning, this isn’t your average mainstream media predictions. You will find my list in a significantly different order than most out there right now.

Six factors were used in the making of this list and here they are:

2008 wins – in order to be favorable the team must have won at least eight games

How they performed in second half of 2008 – The win/loss columns from the second half of last season.

ACC away schedule – a simple measure of how difficult the teams ACC away schedule is in 2009

Living up to expectations – Historically how the team typically performs compared to how they are expected to finish in their division.

QB Experience – does the team start a junior or senior?

Defense – Does the team have a top 25 defense nationally and do they return most starters or lose them?

Sixth North Carolina State

2008 wins – unfavorable, 6-7

How they performed second half of 2008–favorable, they were 4-1 in there last five games losing in the Papa John Bowl to Rutgers.

ACC away schedule – Very unfavorable with away games at Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College and Virginia Tech

Living up to expectations – Typically perform about the same or slightly less than preseason expectations

QB experience — unfavorable (it says experience not talent)

Defense – unfavorable, 65th nationally

Fifth Clemson

2008 wins – unfavorable, 7-6

How they performed second half of 2008 – favorable, last six games finished 4-2

ACC away schedule – somewhat unfavorable with away games at NC State, Georgia Tech, Maryland and Miami

Living up to expectations – Typically perform worse than expectations

QB experience – very unfavorable

Defense – favorable, 13th nationally.

Fourth Florida State

2008 wins – favorable, 9-4

How they performed second half of 2008 – neutral, finished 3-3 last six games

ACC away schedule – neutral, play away at UNC, Wake Forest, Clemson and Boston College

Living up to expectations – Typically perform worse than expectations

QB experience – favorable, Christian Ponder is a redshirt Junior

Defense – neutral, finished 26th nationally

Second (Tie) Maryland

2008 wins – favorable, 8-5

How they performed second half of 2008 – unfavorable, 2-3 in last five games

ACC away schedule – Very Favorable, away games at Duke, Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State

Living up to expectations – Typically performs better than expectations

QB experience – very favorable, Senior Chris Turner

Defense – unfavorable, finished 44th nationally

Second (Tie) Boston College

2008 wins – favorable, 9-5

How they performed second half of 2008 – favorable, finished 4-2 last six games

ACC away schedule – Very unfavorable, away games at Clemson, Virginia, Maryland and Virginia Tech.

Living up to expectations – Typically performs much better than expectations

QB experience – unfavorable, Yet to be determined

Defense – unfavorable, finished 17th nationally but lost too many starters on D.

First Wake Forest

2008 wins – favorable, 8-5

How they performed second half of 2008 – favorable, 4-2 in last six games

ACC away schedule – neutral, away games at Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Boston College

Living up to expectations – Typically greatly outperforms expectations

QB experience – very favorable, Senior Riley Skinner

Defense – unfavorable, finished 16th nationally but only four starters return on defense

Let's recap:

Wake Forest's weakness may be their defense but regardless they win the division with their knack for winning games, fairly neutral ACC away schedule and experienced quarterback.

NC State takes last place due to their tough ACC away schedule and weak defense. 2010 may be their year but they must show significant improvement in their defense in 2009.

Some other notes:

The teams who won at least eight games last season make up the top four positions of this list.

Maryland is the only team who finished unfavorable in the win loss column during the second half of last season, Florida State was neutral.

NC State and Boston College have tough ACC away schedules, Maryland may have the easiest.

Wake Forest and Boston College typically finish much better than they are expected to in the preseason.

Florida State, Maryland and Wake Forest have experience at quarterback.

Clemson is the only team in the Atlantic with a favorable defense, Florida State is neutral.

Coastal Division Predictions based on the six significant factors coming soon.

Now bring on the stream of comments about why I am wrong (and perhaps some love from the Wake Forest, Boston College and Maryland fans).