At this point in the season, you know what you've got with your Fantasy team.Week Three was more or less the last chance for your sleepers to wake up, and those picks that you overreached on have become painfully apparent. Without further ado, the results...
Good Investment
Chris Chambers
There was a reason I ranked him as high as I did on the predraft cheat sheet.
Chambers has some serious talent, and has shown results before (82 catches for 1,100 yards and 11 TDs in 2005). Out with the old (Harrington, Culpepper) and in with the new (Green)—and Chambers can finally get some good balls.
He's going to be a lock for at least six receptions and 80 yards in any given week. The touchdowns will come.
Derrick Mason
See: Chris Chambers.
They serve the same role—both are primary options on teams with better talent. I really thought this would be the year for Clayton to depose Mason, but it hasn't happened. If you can find an owner who thinks that touchdowns are all there is in football, make a run for him.
Tony Romo
Romo must have watched footage of that blown hold every day in the offseason, because he's playing like a top-five QB.
It's one think to pick apart the Giants—but manhandling the Bears secondary (albeit an injured Bears secondary) takes serious poise. Throw in his usual chunk of rushing yards and you've got a legit contender on your hands.
Marion Barber III
Dallas can say what they want about a timeshare, but the running game is becoming the Barber show.
Julius Jones is looking slower and is losing carries to the more efficient and hirsute Barber. He's going to be the RB #1 soon enough—and if he's lucky, Jones will be relegated to nothing more than a third-down back.
Marshawn Lynch
Anyone who worried that Lynch wouldn't get the rock can rest assured—he's officially "the guy" in Buffalo.
Not only is he the only guy running the ball, in fact—he's the only guy on offense, period.
Lynch is a lock for at least 80 yards a game, but the touchdowns may not come as often as you'd like. Hopefully Lee Evans gets involved enough to take some men out of the box; otherwise Lynch is looking at no more than six TDs this year.
Underachieving
Sammy Morris
If you've been watching your stats carefully, you've noticed that Morris has been getting 10-15 carries per game. He's also the goal-line guy.
Essentially, he's the Corey Dillon of 2007.
If Maroney gets hurt, Morris becomes the guy. If Maroney doesn't get hurt, he's still the guy on the goal line. Make him a priority.
Larry Johnson
I don't even know what to say about this. Marshawn Lynch can lead a horrible offense, LJ—why can't you?
Granted, Johnson's been playing some tough run defenses, but he hasn't looked good at all. Though San Diego will probably shut him down again, he needs to turn it on in the next few weeks if he wants to avoid my Trade Bait list. As it is, his value is too low to trade him. Tough it out.
Reggie Brown
Kevin Curtis is making waves, and Brown is standing in a puddle. However, it's not his fault—McNabb rarely looks to him.
This is actually par for the course for Brown—he did the same thing last year, mixing two-catch days with big games . Let's hope that a shootout against the Giants helps.
Lee Evans
He's due. He has to be.
This guy is incredibly inconsistent, but so far he's been consistently BAD. Hopefully he'll get some help from Trent Edwards, who loves deep balls (that sounds terrible).
Santana Moss
Speaking of inconsistent receivers, Moss is also going to be on the upswing soon. The difference between Moss and Evans is that Moss has a running game to rely on, and Jason Campbell is getting better every week.
Look for a bust-out performance soon...and buy while the value is low.
Overachieving
Ronnie Brown
Come on—it's RONNIE FREAKING BROWN.
You know, the guy who almost got pushed into a timeshare with his backup, Jesse Chatman?
This week was a fluke and then some. Brown's a RB #2 at best. Don't let anyone convince you otherwise.
Kevin Curtis
Unfortunately for Reggie Brown owners, Curtis seems to have established himself as the WR #1 in Philly. He's going to put up consistent numbers every week (think four receptions for 80 yards and a 40 percent chance of TD)—but he likely won't top 150 yards again this season.
Carnell Williams
Don't let his stats fool you—Cadillac is a goal-line corpse.
Graham and Pittman will be taking all the yardage and receptions, so a common stat line for the banged up Caddy will likely be 25 yards and a TD...sometimes. As it is, you're better off starting Sammy Morris.
Chris Brown
He's the backup to Fatty McGee (all 300 pounds of LenDale White)—and while he's the better back, he's not going to see the majority of the carries, especially near the goal line.
Let Week Two's performance be nothing more than a memory.
Donovan McNabb
Taking off your knee brace doesn't make you Superman. Playing the Lions and their poor excuse for a secondary does.
McNabb's not this good. He's probably going to have another huge week next week against an extremely porous Giants D, but things will settle down after that.
If you were planning on trading for him, wait until he comes back to earth against the Jets and Bears.
Waiver Fodder/Trade Bait
Rex Grossman
The Bears won't bench the Sex Cannon, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't.
Granted, the Bears faced some tough Ds in the first few weeks, but Grossman looked awful Monday night. Don't drop him just yet, though—in true Rexy fashion, he'll likely have a huge game this week. Don't start him, but do trade him immediately after the game against the Lions.
If he can't get it done against Detroit, he can't get it done period.
Laurence Maroney
That 100-yard performance sure looks nice...too bad Maroney hasn't (and won't) exceed 20 carries in a game this season.
Hopefully, someone in your league is still sold on his potential, and will give you a Willis McGahee-caliber player in exchange. Maroney's value isn't going to get much better than this.
Rudi Johnson
I hate to say I told you so, but yeah.
17 carries for nine yards? Pathetic. And this was against SEATTLE. Add in the fact that Rudi's hurt and playing the Pats next week, and you don't want any part of this.
Trade, but don't drop. He'll pick it up, and when he does, he'll hopefully be on someone else's squad. Try trading him for Willie Parker.
Drew Brees
He's posting Grossman-esque numbers!
It's not entirely Brees' fault, though—look what he has to deal with: no Joe Horn, no help from his receivers, no running game.
Granted, he also tries to force a lot of passes that turn into wounded ducks, but this is a group-effort disaster. Trade him or bench him.
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about 1 year ago
What if any bounce-back potential do you see with Brees? Sure, he has looked absolutely godawful the first few weeks, but he is a talented player and he isn't going to keep throwing picks and no TDs all season.
Plus, with Deuce out, Reggie is in the backfield (almost) every down, and Reggie is essentially another receiver and almost more of a threat catching short passes and trying to turn them into big gains than he is running the ball, so that should help Brees' stats.
And with the Saints looking as terrible as they do, they'll be playing from behind in a lot of games and thus Brees will get to throw a lot of passes. Which should be a good thing in fantasy, so long as he isn't throwing them to the other team as he did on Monday night...
about 1 year ago
The problem with Brees is twofold:
#1. His receivers are dropping balls. This isn't Brees' fault, per se, but if you throw a perfect strike to Henderson and he drops it, it's the same as Brees just overthrowing him in fantasy land. Until "the guys" start showing the soft hands that made Brees a serious option last year, things will be moving to the running game.
#2. Speaking of the running game, Reggie Bush's 86 receptions in 2006 were the result of the split back scenario. With McAllister (finally) out, Bush is going to be forced to run the ball because, hey, somebody's gotta do it. He'll still catch passes, but if NO goes anywhere, it'll be with Bush on the ground.
I say Brees has some serious turnaround potential -- rough matchups to start the season. Will Brees be throwing 350 yards and 3 TDs? Not unless they play the Lions or Giants every week. If Brees "levels out," a more realistic weekly expectation would be 200 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Serviceable, but not really a fantasy option. On the "start-o-meter" he ranks ahead of Tavaris Jackson, but below David Garrard (Garrard at least gets the rushing yards).
Don't be looking to buy unless he can make some serious adjustments.
about 1 year ago
Do you think that Romo's draft position was hurt because of the fluke screw up that ended their run? I can't help but feel that he was a steal in many people's drafts because of the bad taste left in all Cowboy's fans mouths. He's reminding everyone what the Tuna (and Hollywood models) saw in him.
about 1 year ago
Should I give up now if Ronnie Brown I am depending on Ronnie Brown from week to week? I think I already know the answer.
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