AFC North: Betting NFL Season Win Totals

(Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective.  All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published.  For additional division previews please find links at the bottom of this article for previews of the NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, NFC East and AFC South divisions.

Pittsburgh: 10.5

The Steelers opponents in 2008 combined to win 133 games, good enough for Pittsburgh to end up playing the seventh toughest schedule. This obviously was no hurdle for them as they were consistently strong all year, never losing back-to-back games, ended the regular season at 12-4, and marched their way to a come-from-behind Super Bowl victory.

The Steel Curtain defence Pittsburgh is famous for, was again the team’s strong point, ranking second vs the run, first vs the pass and second in sacks, while also allowing the fewest points against with only 223. The offence was never flashy, posting middling results both on the ground and in the air, however they were always able to do just enough to get the job done. Their biggest concern was the fact that Big Ben continued to see some of the most grass of any QB in the league, as the Steelers allowed the fourth most sacks in the league.

The top teams in the league, much less the Super Bowl champions, often see a tougher schedule the following season. However the schedule makers were very kind and rewarded Pittsburgh with only the league’s 29^th toughest schedule. Their schedule looks to set up nicely as well with them only leaving the East or Central time zone once for a game in Denver, not having to play any teams off a bye week and having their bye week at a decent time in Week Eight, nearly in the middle of the year.

With Santonio Homes looking like he is emerging as a future star, and Rashard Mendenhall returning from injury to join Willie Parker in the backfield, it would look as if Pittsburgh has some parts in order to improve on offense in 2009. Roethlisberger will always keep the team in any game but his protection will have to tighten up if he is to have a long career. The problem I see is that outside of a few rookies, nothing was done to upgrade this offensive line in the offseason, and the WR corps lost serviceable Nate Washington to free agency.

Pittsburgh’s defence should remain elite, especially with the softer schedule they are set up to face. Their linebackers are arguably the best in the league, CB Bryant McFadden departed in free agency as well, and every starter on the defensive line will be in their 30s this year.

The Steelers will play some of last year’s worst teams in the Bengals, Browns, Packers, Lions, Raiders and Chiefs. They also only play four teams (Titans, Vikings, Ravens and Dolphins) who made it to double digit victories last year. With a win total at 10.5 there would look to be more than enough spots for the Steelers to get to or go over that number. When I looked down their schedule I found their number to be set very accurately. Obviously some of these teams that struggled last year will improve and it’s unlikely the Bengals and Browns will combine for only eight wins again.

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