Mapping a Road to the Phillies' World Series Return

By (Analyst) on August 20, 2009

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Following the performance by Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee, a two-hit, 11 strikeout, no walks, and one unearned run in an 8-1 Phillies win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, Phillies fans must have felt incredibly good.

The win pushed the Phillies lead over the Marlins to 5.5 games and gave the Phillies a season-high 19 wins over .500 and .581 winning percentage. Heck, the season-long lead by the Dodgers, who narrowly hold the best record in the National League, have only a 3.5 lead over the Colorado Rockies.

Pictorially, as I sometimes do, I will show each opponent the Phillies must beat to make it and win the World Series.

A Star Is Rising for Marlin's Ramirez

ST. LOUIS, MO - JULY 14:  National League All-Star Hanley Ramirez of the Florida Marlins bats during the 2009 MLB All-Star Game at Busch Stadium on July 14, 2009 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

When the Florida Marlins traded Josh Beckett to the Boston Red Sox, they got an important piece of their future in return: shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

Ramirez is hitting .358 with 18 home runs, 82 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. Along with pitcher Josh Johnson, with a 12-2 record, the Marlins have not folded under the August heat.

At 64-56, they are 5.5 games behind the Phillies. Chances of winning the National League East, 9-1. Wildcard chances, 5-1.

Prediction: Third place in National League East.

Talented Starting Pitching Keeps Braves in Hunt

ATLANTA - JUNE 27:  Starting pitcher Javier Vazquez #33 of the Atlanta Braves against the Boston Red Sox at Turner Field on June 27, 2009 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The rotation of Javier Vazquez (shown at left), Jair Jurrjens, and Derek Lowe have kept the Atlanta Braves in contention all year. Vazquez and Jurrjens have 10 wins and Lowe has 12.

Next to the San Francisco Giants, the Braves probably have the next best pitching staff in the National League.

The class of the National League East for much of the 1990s and early 2000s, the Braves stand at 63-57 and 6.5 games behind first place Philadelphia.

Once the Mets went on the disabled list of winning teams, I thought the Braves would be the next best team behind the Phillies. Braves chances: 6-1 to win National League East and 4-1 to win the Wild Card.

Prediction: Second place in National League East.

Lincecum Holds Key to Giants' Success

SAN FRANCISCO - AUGUST 01:  Tim Lincecum #55 of the San Francisco Giants pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during a Major League Baseball game at AT&T Park on August 1, 2009 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

The reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum is making a strong case to repeat the award with a 12-3 record and a 2.37 ERA.

With the addition of Freddy Sanchez from the Pirates, the Giants are set up for a low-scoring, good pitching offense and defense. But all along I have believed that the Giants will win the Wild Card and be the Phillies opening round opponent in the NLDS.

They still have to fend off the Colorado Rockies, besides the Dodgers, but with a rotation of Lincecum, Tim Cain, and Barry Zito, they look good in any playoff run.

Prediction: Wildcard winner. 3-1 chance to advance in NLDS.

Baseball's Best Player Could Lead Cards to World Series

CHICAGO - MAY 21:  Albert Pujois #5 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a two-run home run in the fifth inning against the Chicago Cubs on May 21, 2004 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 7-6. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty

The current Mr. Baseball, Albert Pujols, is having another MVP type season with a .321 batting average, 39 home runs, and 105 RBI. Those are possible Triple Crown numbers if he keeps his average up.

The Cardinals finally overtook the Cubs and the Astros and at 69-53 hold a six-game lead over the Cubs in the National League Central.

I think the Cardinals are good enough to beat the Dodgers in a head-to-head playoff series and could likely face the Phillies, if the reigning champs make it through.

Chances to advance to the World Series: 2-1.

Ryan Howard Leads Phils to Third Straight NL East Crown

CHICAGO - AUGUST 12: Ryan Howard #6 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a triple in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs on August 12, 2009 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Phillies defeated the Cubs 12-5. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Imag

If I am giving odds on every other team, I should handicap the Phillies.

Just as important as Cliff Lee, Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard, represents the Phillies' best chance to make it back to the World Series.

Howard recently went homerless in 57 at bats, but that is history. As the Phillies approach September, Ryan Howard is getting hot again.

His 31st home run in last night's 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks was a three-run blast.

He should even catch Pujols in the home run chase.

Prediction: Phillies win the NL East running away. World Series return odds: 1-1. Hey, the are the defending World Series Champions. I predict, as I have for the past month or so, a Phillies-Yankees World Series.

As a baseball fan, I realize things can happen. As Phillies fans, we know it all too well.

But this team, led by Howard, Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, and now Raul Ibanez, is loaded with offensive firepower, perhaps the best in baseball.

Phillies Road Toughest in New York

SEATTLE - AUGUST 15:  Alex Rodriguez #13 of the New York Yankees bats during the MLB game against the Seattle Mariners on August 15, 2009 at Safeco Field in Seattle, Washington.  The Yankees defeated the Mariners 5-2. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

From a Phillies fan's perspective, all is mostly quiet on the Alex Rodriguez front.

The All-World Third Baseman is hitting .254 with 21 home runs and 64 RBI. Kind of a quiet season, too.

But as important as C.C. Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, and Derek Jeter are to the team, Rodriguez is the focal point and ultimately, because of his contract, will be judged on the Yankees success and failure.

The 8-0 Red Sox losing streak is history and the Yankees at 76-45 have a seven-game lead over the Red Sox. They currently have the best record in all of baseball.

Prediction: Yankees make it to the World Series. Odds, 1-2 to win it all.

Yep, if the Yankees meet the Phillies in the World Series, they would be favored.

Because of the 26 World Series championships, the new stadium, the most paid for two free-agent pitchers...and...that man shown at left.

Anything can happen, and you have to beat the best to be the best.

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