5/16/2008 4:00 PM EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch – NBA Playoff and MLB Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch! Sports MarketWatch will be published weekly on Friday, normally by 5PM Eastern Time.
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for upcoming games.
Sports Marketplace – NBA Playoff and MLB Edition
Last weekend, the NBA Sports MarketWatch continued its solid playoff performance by sweeping the weekend. Utah squeaked out a win for us by 0.5 points (showing once again that you need to shop for the best spreads!). In addition, Detroit “broke serve” and beat Orlando, at Orlando, to take a 3-1 series lead. With the number of NBA playoff games being limited, we are introducing MLB into the MarketWatch family. Let’s see what contrarian values SportsInsights’ statistics show this weekend.
2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 21-23-2 = 47.7%
2008 MLB Games to Watch: 0-0
*Source: SportsInsights.com
Sports MarketWatch – NBA Playoff Games to Watch
Boston Celtics +3 over Cleveland Cavaliers (Friday)
Tonight’s playoff game shows indications of “smart money” on the Celtics. Cris opened the game at Cleveland -3 at home. Even with two-thirds of the bets coming in on Cleveland, the current line at most books is Cleveland -2.5.
The Celtics had a tremendous season – but have underperformed during the playoffs. The public sometimes overemphasizes the “what have you done for me lately” mentality. We’ll “buy” the Celtics with their current “low reputation” and “sell” the Cavaliers and Lebron James at a recent “high.” Look for the “real Celtics” to stand up and “break serve” as the smell of a Championship gets closer. Grab the three points from SIA.
Boston Celtics +3
Sports MarketWatch – MLB Games to Watch (Friday)
SF Giants +104 over Chicago White Sox
The SF Giants are currently collecting less than 30% of the moneyline bets as a home team. SportsInsights has shown that MLB home teams – that the public hates – offer sports investors “contrarian value.”
In addition, this game shows signs of “smart money” taking the Giants. Even with the vast majority of bets landing on the White Sox, the line has moved slightly towards San Fran. This is an indication that the larger bets of “big, smart money” are taking SF. We’ll join the smart money and grab the “live” home dog.
SF Giants +104
Washington Nationals +120 over Baltimore Orioles
Our oddsmaker contacts told us that some “smart money” is getting down on the Nationals. SportsInsights sports marketplace odds show this to be true. With less than 30% of the bets (moneyline and teaser/parlays) taking Washington, the moneyline has actually moved in the direction of Washington.
The line opened at Baltimore -140 at Cris – but has moved to only Baltimore -136 even though most of the bets have been on the Orioles. We’ll “bet against the public” and take the side of the “smart money” in this match-up.
Washington Nationals +120
It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch – MLB Edition.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at SportsInsights.com
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