Tectonic Shifts That Could Shake Up the BCS

Fault Line: If performances from last year translate into a trend over the next three then the most likely change in automatic qualification is not the addition of the Mountain West but rather the loss of the Pac-10.

Magnitude: If the Pac-10 losses its AQ status, fear not because USC will still be going to the Rose Bowl every year. Because the conference is tied to the bowl in Pasadena, the BCS will allow the Pac-10 champion to continue being represented at the Rose Bowl.

The largest shock, however, will not come in BCS representation but rather in the revenue generated by the conference. Under the current rules the Pac-10 must share with all other mid major conferences in their BCS revenue.

Aftershock: The most obvious next step for the Pac-10 would be to withdraw, with the Rose Bowl, from the BCS. This would guarantee the conference money. Maybe (key word) the conference would release their champion to play in the National Championship if they finished first or second in the polls.

Tremors: It might be an interesting year when California finishes ahead of all other mid-major champions and is crowned a “BCS Buster.” But fear not west coast fans, at the prospect of losing the Pac-10 the BCS will surely amend their rules for a more equitable distribution of revenue; keeping the Pac-10 in the BCS.

Fault Line: The creation of conference championship games nearly two decades ago have proven a great source of revenue for their conferences. And, with strong teams playing in the Mountain and Pacific time zones the Pac-10 certainly could beef up their conference's statue.

Magnitude: A conference championship for the Pac-10 would yield a modestly estimated $10 million for the conference; almost one million extra per institution, and have the potential of sending the champion into the BCS on a strong win (see USC the last three years).

The choice of the two teams will most likely come from the Mountain West or Western Athletic conferences. These schools ambitions to form a new BCS conference would be dashed as cooperation turns into a competition for those two Pac-10 spots.

Aftershock: While some have suggested that the Pac-10 would form North and South divisions, a more likely division comes with schools pairing (i.e. Stanford and Cal) and being placed in separate divisions, playing their rival annually. This keeps big city revenue and recruiting even between the divisions.

Tremors: With the select Pac-10 fans calling for expansion, the conference really has nothing to gain from splitting their receipts two more ways. Expect the Pac-10 to expand only after the lethargic Big Ten adds another team. Then expect playoff pundits to come back with their war whoops.

Fault Line: After an impressive year when the Mountain West outshined its neighbor, the Pac-10, the Mountain West is on track to become the newest addition to the top tier of the FBS.

Magnitude: Much has been made about the potential of Boise State joining the Mountain West. While the Broncos have been a big fish in a small pond for years now, the Mountain West is under no obligation to take the team.

Of course, should the Mountain West give only a marginal performance this year and Boise State give another Top 25 finish, then put money on a reformed conference being given serious attention by the parties involved this spring.

Aftershock: If the Mountain West makes it into the BCS as a nine or 10 team conference then you can bet people will be calling for expansion to 12 teams and a conference champion. However, the conference needs to be cautious and learn from the mistakes of the WAC a decade ago.

As the junior of the two western BCS conferences the Mountain West will be a gateway conference for future mid-majors (like Boise State) looking to join the BCS.

The conference will likely sell these spots on a need only basis when their AQ status is in jeopardy. We saw how this helped the Big East out of a jam a few years ago (Louisville 2004).

Tremors: Talks are actually underway already. By all accounts the Mountain West should be joining the BCS and getting its annual $17 million paycheck by the 2012 season.

The only question yet to be determined is whether Boise State will join the conference on its mission, and that should be answered after this coming year.

Fault Line: When the Big 12 was formed a disparity in television revenue was allowed so that the Texas teams would not have to give up too much when they united with the Big Eight. However, a match made for money can easily be broken when more is on the table.

Currently the 12 teams split the appx. $10 million generated by the Big 12 Championship Game. However, more money could be made if the teams took in the top four mid-majors (from the MWC, WAC, and C-USA) and split into two eight team leagues.

Magnitude: The additional revenue brought about by a second full BCS stipend of $17 million for the, now, 16 teams would more than pay for the loss of a championship game. The conferences could also see potentially three or four teams play in the BCS each year (2007 Missouri, 2008 Texas Tech and TCU).

Aftershock: With both conferences at eight teams they would serve as future gateway conferences for skyrocketing mid-major programs deserving of BCS access.

There would be an issue of dividing the Big 12's bowl bids among the two conferences. The Cotton Bowl would most likely end up back with the SWC. This split timed correctly with the creation of a four team playoff would likely put the Cotton Bowl into the BCS, and both leagues will have their BCS bowl-tie.

Tremors: There is a fair amount of dissatisfaction within the stronger Big 12 teams. The three-way tie in the Big 12 South last year probably did little to ameliorate this.

However, while the nation's top conferences would enjoy seeing only the top Mountain West teams joining the BCS, there is simply no momentum for a revived Southwest Conference.

Fault Line: As we approach the Eastern United States we should probably get this one out of the way. Notre Dame is the premier football program which has held out against joining a conference.

While they would be a decent fit for either the Big Ten or the Big East, the Fighting Irish have considered in the past hooking up with the ACC and emerging Big 12.

Magnitude: The shock of this move is minimal for any school not named Notre Dame or in the conference that they ultimately choose. Notre Dame currently earns a BCS paycheck, and would actually make less money should they be chosen to the BCS as part of a conference.

Aftershock: In any case the Big East will finally have their ninth football team, either in the Irish themselves or in a team like Memphis replacing the Irish in all sports. The Big East will also no longer have the suspense of the Big Ten looming over them, ready to poach a team of their own.

Tremors: The prospect of Notre Dame joining a conference has long been a topic of interest for football fans in the Midwest and Northeast. Currently, however, the Fighting Irish are doing just fine on their own.

They have a strong schedule, good television package, and enough endowment for a whole conference. Don't hold your breath on this one.

Fault Line: The push for adding one more team is gaining momentum again among Big Ten coaches who are looking to boost the caliber of their champion and their bowl play by playing games after Thanksgiving and adding a championship game.

Magnitude: The magnitude of this shift depends on where this team comes from. If it is a Midwestern team like Central Michigan, Ball State, or Notre Dame then the impact will be minimal. If the team is pilfered from the Big 12, like Missouri, Nebraska, or Iowa State, then a mini-domino effect will be created out west.

If, however, the team is part of the back bone from the Northeast; say Pittsburgh, Rutgers, or West Virginia; then expect the Big East to finally die. Of course, that conference has proven resilient in the past.

Aftershock: The movement of a single team should have a minimal aftershock beyond the discussion above of either the Big 12 poaching a MWC team or the Big East losing its AQ status.

Tremors: Talk is in the air about this one. However, there is not one obvious pick as to which team should join the conference, and many of the conference's bowl woes could be ameliorated by simply scheduling games the last two weeks of the season.

The talk may get unbearable if two teams go undefeated in-conference yet don't play each other (Iowa and Ohio State 2002).

Fault Line: Big East teams are having a difficult time scheduling five non-conference games of decent merit. This is especially true when the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten teams only have four slots to schedule such games.

Playing seven conference games also makes for schedules imbalanced between home and away games. The addition of a single team would solve both of these problems quickly.

Magnitude: Admitting a team like Navy or a team from the MAC as a football only member would be the simplest arrangement. Like Big Ten expansion, this one would make only small waves outside the Big East and the school involved.

Aftershock: With “conference championship mania” striking many football fans there will inevitably be calls for adding up to a 12th team. This would be a difficult maneuver for a team toward the lower end of the BCS totem pole.

An absolute renaissance in Big East Football combined with a counter-attack on the ACC could make the Big East Conference Championship Game a reality.

Tremors: While the cries for just a single team are loud in Big East circles, there really is no team that stands above the rest and there really is no room for that team in sports beyond football.

Temple was a football only member for a decade, but now most teams are comfortable in their all-sports conferences. The Navy program is a potential fit but the Big East competition may be more than the Midshipmen would care for.

Fault Line: Although the Big East has improved markedly since 2004 and 2005 the conference is still the most commonly mentioned candidate of losing AQ status in the BCS. The preseason coaches poll perpetuates this perception by placing no teams in the Top 25.

Automatic Qualification in the Big East is determined by an average of three factors over four years (beginning last year through 2011): Number of teams in the season-ending Top 25, Highest Rank among these, and overall conference strength according to the BCS computers.

The Big East has been struggling in the final poll but has a substantial corp of teams placing in the next 25 spots. The Mountain West, on the other hand, has three really strong teams and six other teams that serve as an anchor keeping the conference down.

At the prospect of the Big East losing its AQ status an alliance between these two conferences could produce a league with teams in the top 25 as well as a moderately deep conference.

The two conferences would not necessarily play each other beyond an East-West Championship Game and the alliance would be for BCS purposes only.

Magnitude: This one would be huge. The two conferences would essentially become together what neither could be alone, a BCS conference. While $17 million split 17 ways is tough, it is better than $5 million split 70 ways.

This could also be a mechanism for the Big East to survive one of its teams joining the Big Ten. The BCS minimum size for a conference is eight teams, while the NCAA minimum is six. The Big East could exist as a seven team conference by NCAA standards and a 16 team alliance by BCS standards.

Aftershock: This relationship would be tenable, at best. For each BCS evaluation cycle the alliance would also be re-evaluated. If one conference can keep the bid alone then it is “sayonara” to the other.

If together the alliance can't keep an AQ bid then the relationship would only be kept if the East-West Game was a marketing success.

Tremors: This one is based on sheer mathematical happenstance. The BCS has not released the exact measurements used for Automatic Qualification. There is the possibility, though, of such an alliance being viable. The two conferences might do well to strike up a preliminary arrangement, just in case.

Fault Line: What happens if the Big East loses its AQ status? Some teams will probably go knocking on the Big Ten or even the ACC's door. Others may petition for Notre Dame-type status in the BCS.

But, most likely, the teams with strong football programs will want out of the basketball conference.

The Big East founded their football conference by adding Miami and securing a spot in the Bowl Coalition before they were even able to play a full season. Now, locked out of that same system, continuing a conference in football would be constricting for many schools.

Magnitude: This would be a major event. The schools in the East would be able to form a new conference in the manner most conducive to their goals. Of course, these teams may get absorbed into the ranks of the mid-majors or become independent as well.

Aftershock: Without the encumbrances of eight basketball schools, this collection of teams would be free to expand, and in their own manner. If a quick jump back into the BCS is desired then expansion as discussed previously might be considered.

Another option would be to form a collection of independent schools as the premiere Eastern mid-major conference.

Joining with the current independents and the top team or two from the C-USA and MAC, these schools could play the minimum five conference games, hold a championship game and keep a step above all other mid-major conferences.

Even Notre Dame could agree to a five-game conference slate, provided Army, Navy, and Pittsburgh are in as well. We'll just make sure to call it the Eastern Consortium or Collection, anything but a “Conference.”

Tremors: The Big East has performed well the last few years and should be in little danger of losing its AQ status, even if the conference splits with the basketball schools next year.

Losing their Automatic Qualifier to the BCS and the football teams would have little incentive in sticking to their eight team league.

There are an indefinite number of changes that could befall the BCS conferences over the next five years. I intentionally left this spot open for you to posit your own thoughts.

Perhaps you see Conference USA emerging from the ooze and competing with the ACC or Big East for a BCS spot. Maybe the top mid majors from the MWC, WAC, and C-USA will form a new conference.

What do you think could be on the horizon? ESPN has recently played around the idea of a dramatic realignment placing the top 40 teams in the nation in a whole new football division.

Maybe you see Louisiana Tech and a few other misplaced teams joining the Sun Belt. The ACC could jettison a few teams to the Big East to better concentrate their power and wealth. If you have any crazy ideas post them.