2008 Preview: AFC East

It’s hard to call a defense that ranked fourth in the NFL a weakness. The Patriots defense would be the strength of most teams.  Consider that the defense was as good as the offense in 2007.  The Patriots D did a lot of good things in 2007.

They were very good at pressuring the quarterback and ranked second in the NFL at sacking the quarterback.  They also ranked sixth in passing yards allowed, which is amazing considering how far behind teams were the majority of the game. The Patriots were, however, very average at stopping the run.  While they ranked 10th in yards allowed, they ranked 26th in yards per carry at 4.4.

The defensive line is still in great shape. Wilfork is a beast and still in his 20s. Seymour and Warren are excellent on the ends. They also have good depth behind them. The biggest challenge for the Patriots on defense is overcoming age issues in the linebacker corps and replacing heavy losses in the secondary.

All of their starting linebackers are 30 years old or older.  Thomas is still an excellent player with a few prime years left. Seau is 39 years old and Bruschi will be 35 in a month. That was the big motivation for drafting Mayo with the 10th pick and Crable in the third round. Both will need to contribute immediately.

Samuel was a huge free agent loss in the secondary. They also lost Gay and Wilson.  Harrison returns, but is 36 years old and was susceptible to the pass last season. The Patriots signed CBs Fernando Bryant and Lewis Sanders to go along with safety Tank Williams. While those should be good players, it is hard to believe they will be better than what the Patriots lost. They also drafted Wheatley in the second round to provide depth.

Prediction: It will be interesting to see if the rest of the NFL has caught up to the Patriots in 2008. The Patriots were light years ahead of the rest of the league during the first 10 games of the season. As the season progressed, teams started to close the gap. Still, the Patriots went 18-0 before losing by a field goal in the Super Bowl. Losing by a field goal isn’t exactly being figured out.

The schedule doesn’t look very challenging. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in terms of last year’s winning percentage with a .387 winning percentage. They only play four playoff teams from 2007. That is the minimum for a first place team. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will pan out as the easiest schedule, but based on last season it doesn’t look very challenging.

The Patriots will still have one of the top five scoring offenses in the NFL and they will still have a respectable defense, but one that either barely makes the top 10 or is on the cusp. Even though as a whole they won’t be as good as 2007, they should still have more than enough weapons to run away with the division and earn a first round bye in the playoffs.

New England Patriots Record: 13-3 – AFC East Divisional Champion; AFC No. 2 Seed

2 New York Jets

2007 Record: 4-12

Points Scored: 268 (25th)

Points Allowed: 355 (19th)

Playoff Result: N/A

2008 Strength of Schedule:  117-139 (.457) (25th in NFL)

Strengths: Eric Mangini had a hard fall from grace in 2007. After being considered one of the hottest coaching prospects last season, it is back to the drawing board in 2008. It is hard to look back to 2007, because the NY Jets have been so active in free agency.

They were not awful on defense, especially when it came to stopping the pass. The Jets ranked ninth in pass yards allowed and sixth in pass touchdowns allowed.  Keep in mind that part of that was due to the bad job they did stopping the run.

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