Saratoga Predictions: Macho Again Will Beat Commentator

Joseph CiracoCorrespondent IAugust 8, 2009

The feature race today at Saratoga is the Grade One Whitney, which features defending champion Commentator.

Commentator won this race last year with an incredible 120 Beyer rating.

He also has four wins in six career starts at this historic track.

However, today is the day that the eight-year-old gelding is defeated.

Unlike last year, Commentator will not be allowed to set the pace by himself. Expect Tizway to set the early fractions and dictate the pace of this $750,000 race.

Tizway is a pretty good horse but he's only one for five at nine furlongs, so I don't like his chances to hold on.

Smooth Air should be the stalker in this race and has never been off the board in three career starts at the distance.

I absolutely love his July 25 work, where he covered six furlongs in 1:11 flat. I also like the fact he has the rail and a slight weight advantage. Smooth Air is a very dangerous horse.

I would like to see Macho Again win.

Yes, I just wrote Macho Again.

The race just sets up ideally for him. 

Tizway and Commentator should be first and second for the first mile of the race.

Smooth Air will make his move at the top of the stretch and pass a tiring Tizway.

The big closer, Macho Again, will pass both Smooth Air and Commentator with less than a furlong left.

Macho Again is proven at Saratoga, with a nice win last year on a good track. He's also three for six at the distance and I think he'll go off 4-1 or better.

Macho Again, Smooth Air and Commentator.