UFC 101: Declaration promises to be a another solid card full of excellent fights and good matchups. Aside from seeing a lightweight title shot, we'll get to see the much-hyped middleweight Amir Sadollah in action again.
Once again, all lines taken from bodog, and given in decimal form, and based upon the total return assuming you bet 1.00. Therefore, 1.55 indicates that you make a profit of 0.55 + your original 1.00 for every 1.00 you place. I should really start copy/pasting this...
Josh 'The Dentist' Neer vs. Kurt 'Batman' Pellegrino
(155lbs/70kg)
Josh Neer25-7-1
+Excellent clinch game, complete with Greco-Roman, dirty boxing and Muay Thai clinch
+Pretty good chin
-Questionable sprawl
-Not a good ground fighter
Kurt Pellegrino13-4-0
+BJJ black belt under Hermes Franca
+Never (T)KO'd
+Decent ground and pound
+Wrestling background
-Not very mobile when striking
-Takedowns are not fast or powerful
Analysis:
Pellegrino is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Hermes Franca, but not all black belts are created equal, especially considering he got submitted by brown belt Nate Diaz.
Nonetheless, he's still got an obvious grappling advantage over Neer. Neer has a very good clinch game which he used very well against Nate Diaz, and Pellegrino is a similar enough fighter to Nate, so I would expect this to be another close run fight which could go either way.
My Take:
I'd guess that Neer would outwork Grove for a split decision victory. Neer enters at 1.40, and Pellegrino at 2.90, which is odd for such a close fight, and I would feel better going against myself and picking Pellegrino.
Ricardo 'Cachoarro' Almeida vs. Kendall 'Da Spyder' Grove
(185lbs/84kg)
Ricardo Almeida10-3-0
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Prestigious ADCC career
+Very good ground and pound
-Weak wrestling+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Prestigious ADCC career
+Very good ground and pound
+Good at jumping guard
-Beginner level striking
-Bad cardio
Kendall Grove10-5-0
+Stands at 6'6, tall with a mighty reach advantage
+Very competent striker with a good Muay Thai clinch
+Good enough ground game
+Decent sprawl
-Striking defense is suspect
-Somewhat slow on the feet
-Not a tremendously hard hitter
Analysis:
If Almeida takes Grove down, the American will be lucky to survive the round with the third-degree BJJ black belt (awarded by Renzo Gracie) on top of him.
But like many world class grapplers, wrestling is Almeida's Achilles. Grove is 6'6, which would be tall for a heavyweight, and is gigantic for a middleweight.
Almeida is good at jumping guard, but he'll find that difficult given the sheer distance he has to close between himself and his opponent.
Almeida is good at jumping guard, but he'll find that difficult given the sheer distance he has to close between himself and his opponent.
If he doesn't get a submission in round one, I don't see him having the energy to go and get a submission in the second or third.
Grove isn't bad on the mat himself, having most of his wins by submission, but he'll still try to avoid Almeida like the plague. Expect boos, many of them.
My Take:
Grove by unanimous, Tim Sylvia-esque, decision, surviving scares and continuing to pop away at Almeida. Almeida enters at 1.62, while Grove comes in at 2.30, so of course I believe Grove to be a smarter play.
Grove isn't bad on the mat himself, having most of his wins by submission, but he'll still try to avoid Almeida like the plague. Expect boos, many of them.
My Take:
Grove by unanimous, Tim Sylvia-esque, decision, surviving scares and continuing to pop away at Almeida. Almeida enters at 1.62, while Grove comes in at 2.30, so of course I believe Grove to be a smarter play.
15 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete