Formula 1: Monaco Grand Prix: Are McLaren on a Comeback in Round 6?

So into Round Six we go. The season is certainly spicing up now, as I’m sure you will all agree.

Ferrari have looked very strong in both Bahrain and Barcelona, finishing one-two in each. This has given them a welcome boost in the Constructor Championships points tally.

But something was different last weekend. Those boys at McLaren—usually consistent, conservative, and clinical guys—were forced into a three-stop strategy. Certainly this was not the norm for a track like Istanbul, but the Bridgestone representative had concerns about those trusty Potenza's.

Their worry was that on the softer compound tires—especially around turn eight, the famous four-apex corner—the Bridgestones where overheating and a blowout was an almost certain risk, just like the previous year.

So McLaren had to push on the harder compound tires, and adopt the three-stop strategy, using the softs for as little time as possible.

Most teams would certainly make a hash of a situation like this and end up way down the pecking order. However, McLaren managed to score not only a podium finish, but it a second-place one at that. And not only that—Lewis Hamilton in that MP4-23 at one point even overtook Felipe Massa in his Ferrari on the 24th lap to lead the race, then proceeded to extend a nearly eight-second lead at the front of the pack.

This was something that would prove to be crucial come his next pit stop, as it would bring him back out marginally in front of reigning champion and current points leader Kimi Raikkonen. Even after spending the last stint of the race under the intense pressure of Raikkonen's Ferrari, Lewis was able to hold on to second place behind Massa.

Massa notched his second Grand Prix win of the season, and his third in a row in Istanbul—although a convincing win it was not.

Hamilton's driving in this race was compared by many critics to that of the late, great Ayrton Senna—very gung ho, to the point, precise and very fast. Hamilton was like a man possessed, all over the back of that Ferrari—and once he was past it he knew he had a job to do.

The best race of his career so far? Many think so—even Mr. Hamilton himself.

He was quoted as saying that he had done absolutely everything right on race day, pushed the car, and got as much out of the MP4-23 as he possibly could. That was a sign to him that this was a great race.

Could the outcome have been any different? Yes, it certainly could have, for numerous reasons:

• Lewis Hamilton chose the hard tires for qualifying. If he had chosen the softs, would he had clinched the pole? I think on this occasion, maybe not. Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen experienced a very quick weekend in both practice and qualifying. And the only time Lewis looked set to mount a challenger was in Q1 whilst on the soft option—which we all know didn’t really work for him in the second sector of the track—plus, the durability wasn’t there.
• If Raikkonen didn’t tag Kovalainen on that first corner, would Kimi have had the extra speed to mount more of a challenge to not only Hamilton, but Massa too? I think, maybe yes. Kimi had a problem with his front wing. In the dirty air of Hamilton and Robert Kubica, he struggled to keep down force to a maximum. This was proven when everybody else pitted before him—with a clean track, zero traffic, and good air to plough through, Kimi managed to achieve the fastest lap of the race. Maybe with a fully balanced car,    this kind of pace could have been maintained?
• In the same breath, would Heikki Kovalainen have been able to hold off Raikkonen had he not suffered the early puncture? Maybe not, but in terms of a points-scoring position I think it would have been almost inevitable that the Constructors' total for McLaren would have been a little healthier after the race.

A lot of people are writing Kovalainen off,  deeming him inexperienced and saying that it was a bad move for McLaren to bring him in. They claim he wont live up to past greats such as Fernando Alonso, Mika Hakkinen, and Senna.

Looking at the evidence, I think he is shaping up to be a pretty consistent driver. His record since the beginning of the season has been 4-6-4-DNF-12. While this doesn't make great reading, considering his recent run of bad luck 4-6-4 isn't too bad—especially in terms of points finishing, and certainly considering the other cars were the two Ferraris and his teammate.

Kovalainen is very quick on the track. He has won two DHL Fastest lap awards in five races this year. He is a great qualifier, and I believe that he could be a top-four driver come the end of the season, with some consistency and a bit of luck. I don’t think Lewis has got it as easy as he may like at the top of the McLaren tree. The Ferraris certainly still need to keep an eye in their especially wide mirrors for a grinning Fin in his McLaren.

What does all this mean? Has the Ice man started to melt? Is Felipe letting silly mistakes creep in while trying to beat his teammate? Are Ferrari struggling with problems like they had last week in Istanbul on the soft tires due to lack of heat?

Is it a combination of all three? Or is it simply that McLaren are finding their feet and are about to enter a new phase of the season?

Well, I personally think it is the latter. McLaren are finding their feet, and are going to enter a new groove. I believe that all the problems they were experiencing have now been ironed out in the Barcelona testing session.

In this session, extensive work was done on the MP4-23, tweaking the aerodynamics of the car along with other numerous aspects. It would appear that it has been a success, as the car is now challenging the Ferrari on not only high-end, straight-line speed—and to be perfectly honest, it now seems to be superior in cornering to the Ferrari.

Now we have a competition on our hands! You would be a fool to write off Lewis and Heikki at this early stage in the season.

My prediction for Monaco would be to say that this will be primarily a good weekend for both of the top constructors. I think that Ferrari may come out on top of the qualifying, but it's not a one lap race. Looking after tires, hitting the apexes (quite literally), and a good race strategy may mean that a McLaren one-two is a very real possibility,

Will the Ferrari team be left checking their data and wondering what went wrong? Historically, McLaren have taken it up a gear in Monaco, and they could certainly mount a challenge to Ferrari. I am going to predict the following;

1^st– Lewis Hamilton (McLaren Mercedes)

2^nd- Kimi Raikkonen (Scuderia Ferrari)

3^rd- Heikki Kovalainen (McLaren Mercedes)

4^th- Felipe Massa (Scuderia Ferrari)

5^th- Robert Kubica (BMW Sauber)

On a final note, it is sad to see the demise of any F1 team, but special sympathies go to all of the former team of Super Aguri. Good luck to you all. Hope to see Takuma Sato and Anthony Davidson back in an F1 car in the not too distant future.

Ben, over and out.