College Basketball: Five Players Ready to Break-out

Michael Lemaire by Senior Analyst Written on May 14, 2008
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Are you sick of my lists? Good because I am not sick of writing them.

 1. Austin Daye/Gonzaga-

Daye had his fair share of goods and bads his freshman season. One game, he played eight minutes against Memphis, and the only reason he showed in the box score was because he committed four personal fouls.

But in his next game, albeit against a markedly worse Portland team, he exploded for 19 points and 13 rebounds.

Gonzaga stole Daye away from the California schools when he was rated a five-star prospect by Rivals.com. At 6-foot-10 and 190 pounds, he oozed potential and talent, but he was still filling into his body.

The same problem existed at Gonzaga.

He was left sometimes without anyone to guard. His defense made a slow progression throughout the season, but his body type made him a slow defender.

Now, apparently, he has begun a weight program in the hopes of putting on 10 pounds of muscle before next season.  If that happens, the West Coast Conference better look out because he will be unstoppable.

Last season, he was the Bulldogs third leading scorer at 10.5 points per game, and he chipped in with 4.7 rebounds as well. But the kicker? He did all of this scoring all while averaging 18.5 minutes per game.

That means he is averaging 22.1 points per game per 40 minutes. That shows he has some serious potential.

Daye is a special talent. He is as fluid a big man as there is in college basketball, capable of handling the ball at the top of the key and also a strong passer. He has the ability to utilize his size and skill set to create his own shot.

In addition, last season he shot 41 percent from three-point range, and so his range should remain the same despite the line being moved back.

If he adds the muscle, he will add a post-up game that will just further his already burgeoning arsenal.  If Jeremy Pargo stays in the draft, he will be counted on for more minutes and more scoring responsibilities.

Something he is well equipped to handle.

2. Stanley Robinson/UCONN-

Some people say this rising junior doesn't need to break out, he has already arrived. But after watching the potential he exhibited in some of his games last season, he could be on his way to a monster season in 2008-2009.

Robinson showed flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons with the Huskies, but he is better remembered for his athletic and ferocious dunks instead of his all-around play.

This season, if continues to make better decisions, he should be a force for the loaded UCONN team.

Much like Daye, Robinson had his fair share of goods and bads. He scored 32 points and had 11 rebounds against Maine, only to follow that up less than a month later with a four point and five turnover clunker in a loss to Providence.

But it is clear he has all the tools.

At 6-foot-9 and 200 pounds, Robinson might be one of the most athletic players in college basketball. He has always been UCONN's best perimeter defender because of his incredible versatility.

He can post-up one play and fill the lane like a freight train the next. His combination of strength, speed, touch, and footwork is unmatched in D-1.

Last season, he averaged 10.4 points per game and 6.5 rebounds, but his improvement clearly played a big role in the Huskies improvement, and return to the NCAA tournament.

Even scarier is that at his size, he shot 42 percent from behind the arc. How do you defend someone who can shoot over you, dribble by you, or run right through you?

His continued development will hinge, in large part, on whether A.J. Price will be able to return to form following knee surgery. 

Robinson's best game is his ability to run the floor and finish at the rim, and if Price is at full strength, they could become an unstoppable duo.

UCONN has a legitimate shot at a National title if Robinson stops taking a back seat and starts running the show.

3. Matt Howard/Butler:

Matt Howard is a coach's wet dream.

He is not the most skillful player, and he doesn't have the ability to stretch the defense the same way Daye and Robinson do. But his work ethic and basketball IQ are through the roof, and he was only a freshman for Coach Brad Stevens.

Built like a tight end at 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds, Howard is deceptively agile for a guy his size.  For the Bulldogs, he primarily played inside, and fans should expect more of the same next season.

Howard was the model of consistency. He scored in double digits in 24 out of 34 games and five or more rebounds in 23 out of 34 games.

His production came from his ability to score in a multitude of ways. He would get garbage points off offensive rebounds, or post-up and hit a jump hook or a five-foot jumper.

He could run the floor extremely well and always count on now graduated Mike Green to find him the ball.

The strongest indicator he will break-out next season? His shot selection.

He shot almost 60 percent from the field for the season and always played his best games against big opponents. He hung 12 and 12 in a win over Michigan and had 23 and seven against Ohio State's menacing front line.

He also had 16 and nine in the heart-breaking loss to Drake. Point being, the kid will not be denied, and he has some cold blood in his body.

Howard was the third leading scorer for the Bulldogs last season at 12.3 points per game, and the second leading rebounder at 5.5 per game.

But senior stars AJ Graves and Mike Green have since gone on to bigger and better things, leaving the Bulldogs in the capable hands of Mr. Howard.

Unfortunately for Butler, they graduate five of their top seven players, which should only mean that the onus falls harder on Howard to improve and become THE guy for Butler.

4. Nic Wise/Arizona-

Wise had a very tough season. He played sparingly in the first two weeks of the season, but as he improved, he soon began piling up 30+ minutes per game, especially once Jerryd Bayless went out with his injury.

But then Wise got hurt, missed seven straight games, and came back to score in double figures every game the rest of the season.

Although he is small in stature at 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds, the Texas native is a rocket with the basketball in his hands, always looking to push the tempo and break out into a man-advantage break.

The real key to Wise becoming a great point guard is the emergence of incoming freshman Brandon Jennings. Jennings is a well-hyped, pass-first but still score point guard who has the ability to take over the team from the outset.

Without Jennings, the Wildcats would be Wise's team because Bayless left early for the NBA.

But, considering Wise and Bayless were able to co-exist, I don't see why Wise and Jennings can't do the same.

Wise averaged 9.2 points per game, 4.4 assists, and two steals. If he really wants to emerge, he will have to improve his assist to turnover ratio (2.2 to 1 in 2007-08) and also his free-throw shooting (75 percent) last season.

What he definitely doesn't need to improve on is his pesky defense and his knack for burying the long ball (shot 48.1 percent from downtown last season).

In fact, I expect Lute Olsen to encourage Wise to shoot more often given his penchant for making the shots.

If Budinger returns to run along side Wise on the fast break, and Brandon Jennings complements Wise instead of out-shining him, we should see the best point guard in Arizona since the days of Jason Gardner.

5. Jeff Allen/Virginia Tech-

Despite the loss of their senior leader Deron Washington, hopes are high in Blacksburg for next season. A.D. Vassallo returns and so to a talented core of rising sophomores, led by the big fella Jeff Allen.

Allen probably should be playing football. He stands 6-foot-7 and weighs in at 258 pounds, which to his credit is predominantly muscle.

But he is the most important player for Virginia Tech. His play on the low blocks opens up the three-point arc for Vassallo and Malcom Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson.

Last season was not a bad season by any means for the youngster from Washington D.C. He filled up the box score on a daily basis, averaging 11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game.

A stat line that not many other players in college basketball can lay claim to.

He reminds me of a young Glen Davis. Davis always looked out of place on the basketball court, but he had great touch and even better footwork for a man his size.

 It made him extremely difficult to guard at LSU.

Allen is no different. He is as wide as he is tall, but he is athletic.  He can score off the dribble and obviously will throw his body around down low with anyone who wants to try.

The major reason I think Allen will blossom into a first team All-ACC player this season is because his shot selection last year, for a player who plays down low, was very poor.

He shot less than 50 percent from the field, a large no-no when you play in the post.

What it really means is that with more work in practice and a year of experience, the components are there for Allen to make a drastic improvement in that department.

Just imagine what Allen's stat line would look like if he mad 55 percent of his shots last year instead of 49 percent...The ACC is shuddering right now.

 

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written on May 14, 2008 Rankings/List

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