No Way, Jose: Even With Reyes' Return, the Mets Probably Won't Make Playoffs

Doug GausepohlCorrespondent IAugust 3, 2009

NEW YORK - JULY 09:  Manager Jerry Manuel of the New York Mets argues with second base umpire John Hirschbeck against the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 9, 2009 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Pictured above is Jerry Manuel arguing with an umpire during a game last home stand. 

But the only worthwhile argument for Jerry now is to argue for more games on the Mets 2009 schedule.

According to Cool Standings, the Mets have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs as the NL Wild Card.  They have the NL Wild Card team projected to win 90 games, which would force the Mets to go 40-18 over their last 58 games starting tonight. 

The amount of wins in that size sample of games would be astronomical, especially for a team that has been as marred and meticulously destroyed as the Mets have been this season.  They've won just 50 in their first 104 games.  The numbers above would be asking them to win just 10 less games than they have won so far, in almost 50 less than they've played already.

Could the Mets do it?  Of course.  We all know much stranger things have happened to this franchise, good and bad.  But the only team ever to come back from a less than one percent chance to make the postseason was the 2004 Astros, who acquired Carlos Beltran at the deadline and became a much better team.  But Beltran was on that rejuvenated Astros team for a whole two months.

Matt Cerrone from had an interesting take.  Let's say over these next 4 weeks, the Mets play baseball pretty much how they are right now, with their current lineup.  Win one, lose two, win two, lose one, etc.  Then on September 1st, everyone comes back.

The Mets would have to win somewhere around 25 of their final 30 games in order to win 90 games.  And keep in mind, 90 wins does not at all guarantee them a playoff spot.  Any team in front of them could get red hot at anytime and wind up with as many as 95 wins.  I know it sounds exciting to get Reyes, Beltran, and Delgado back, but this team has proven itself to be a 20-10 run team at it's best.  25-5 is a little out there, and we'd need a lot of breaks (which we certainly haven't gotten) and excellent starting pitching (which has been off and on).

As a Met fan, I know of no other way but to believe. I gotta believe. But at the same time, I'm ready to go into another long winter with heartbreak.