A Look at The Jake Peavy Trade

(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Over two months after trading for Jake Peavy and having the 2007 NL Cy Young winner invoke his no-trade clause, the Sox finally got the man they wanted.

It's safe to say that nobody saw this trade coming. While all the attention was on Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell in San Diego, Williams flew under the radar and nabbed Peavy for what probably was the same package of players he offered in May.

And while Peavy is on the disabled list right now, this still looks like a pretty good trade for the White Sox on the surface.

That's not to say Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter, and Adam Russell wasn't a high price to pay. It was—but to get something, you do have to give something up.

So, with all that in mind, here's my breakdown of the trade:

The return

Peavy's an ace, plain and simple. His career WHIP of 1.19 is sixth-best among active starting pitchers and his 3.10 K/BB is ninth-best, just to name a few stats.

Now, I've read some concerns of people who don't think Peavy can pitch outside the pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. However, when you look at his home/road splits in his career, you can see that he's been pretty consistent both at home and on the road—except for 2008. Of course, he's been better at home—anybody who pitches at Petco Park would be—but he hasn't been terrible on the road.

Whether that carries over to him pitching half his games in a hitter-friendly park in the better hitter's league remains to be seen. He has fared well in 20 career interleague starts, posting a 3.29 ERA in 120.1 innings.

Obviously, we won't really know how Peavy pitches in the American League until we get a larger sample size with him on the Sox. I don't think anyone should expect the kind of numbers Peavy put up in San Diego, but it would be disappointing if Peavy doesn't put up top-of-the-rotation numbers.

Keep an eye on Peavy's FIP—that will be the true indicator of whether Peavy can pitch at a high level in the American League. If it rises significantly, it'll be because a lot of the fly balls Peavy was giving up in San Diego are going for home runs in Chicago.

It's not like pitchers can't pitch at U.S. Cellular Field, though. In the end, Peavy coming to a hitter's park probably isn't that big of a concern.

The players dealt

Richard, Poreda, Carter, and Russell—the best part about this package is that Daniel Hudson wasn't included.

The Sox sold high on Richard, who was coming off two stellar starts after the All-Star break after really struggling in the rotation earlier in the year. I liked what I saw from Richard in those two starts (obviously)—he was throwing from a higher angle and that helped his fastball touch the mid-90s, for the most part. His slider and changeup both looked very good as well—and, most importantly, he was throwing strikes.

I don't know if that was a two-start fluke or the start of something great for Richard, but his value hasn't been higher than it was when he was traded. Granted, it really doesn't matter because he was a part to the original trade back in May, but it is nice to see that the Sox got something for Richard in case of a flameout.

There's a chance that Richard develops into a good, consistent starter, yes. And, yes, if Richard does that he'll be making about $14 or so million less than Peavy, which won't look good when the Sox have to deal with contracts/arbitration to/with Carlos Quentin and John Danks.

I'm very interested to see what career path Richard follows, though. He showed that he has the stuff to be a good starter in the majors, but whether he can be consistent with that stuff hasn't bee determined yet.

Poreda still has the highest ceiling of any player in this deal, but he'll only reach that if he can develop a changeup. If he doesn't, he still could be an effective middle reliever or even closer, but just throwing a fastball and a slider won't get him by in any MLB starting rotation.

Despite Richard's recent success, Poreda still was the centerpiece of this trade. Left-handers with the kind of fastball he possesses don't come by all that often, and remember—he was only drafted two years ago. He still has a lot of time to develop in the minors, and he should have a bright future ahead of him in the majors. It might be as a starter, it might be as a reliever—but Poreda should see some level of success in the bigs before his career is over.

Carter racked up a ton of strikeouts—143 in 118.0 IP with Kannapolis—before being dealt. He's still very raw, but could have a high ceiling as a starter or reliever.

He's years away from sniffing the majors, but any time you see those strikeout totals, it's going to get your attention at any level.

Finally, there's Russell, who Kenny Williams intimated was throwing a whole lot better in recent months. His ceiling is probably a serviceable middle reliever at best, but he almost certainly wasn't all that important in this trade.

So, on the whole, it's a pretty good haul for San Diego—but, like all deals for prospects, there are no guarantees in here. There's a chance that every single one of these players ends up spending their careers in the bullpen, or there's a chance that the Padres picked up three quality starters for the future. As with most cases, the reality likely will fall somewhere in between.

The money

Money certainly is an issue with this trade. Peavy is due $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011, and $17 million in 2012 with a $22 million team option for 2013 (via Cot's Baseball Contracts). The Sox will pay all of Peavy's remaining contract, which totals to $48 million for the next three years ($70 MM if they pick up the option). That's a lot of cash.

So where will that money come from? First, Jose Contreras and his $9 million will come off the books after this season.

Second, the Sox probably will let one of Jermaine Dye ($11.5 million) or Jim Thome ($13 million) go. If it's Dye—which I personally think it won't be—the Sox will have to pay $1 million to buy out his $12 million mutual option.

So, with Contreras' and Thome's contracts off the books, that'll save the Sox $22 million. Octavio Dotel's $6 million should come off, too, so that'll be $28 million freed up.

If the Sox need to save even more money, they could consider moving AJ Pierzynski and the $6.5 million he's owed in 2010. That would be contingent on Tyler Flowers improving his production with Triple-A Charlotte, though. Flowers has an OPS of .707 in just 11 with the Knights after posting an OPS of .993 in 77 games with Double-A Birmingham this year.

The Sox will have a hole to fill either in right field or at DH (hopefully, right field because the Dye's best days as an outfielder are behind him), backup catcher, and middle relief—so unless Kenny Williams gets creative, he'll need some money to fill that hole. Peavy's contract will take up a lot of that money that the Sox could use toward those spots, and without any real options in the organization, it could get a bit pricey.

Granted, the Sox are likely a better team with the more expensive Peavy instead of the cheaper Richard/Poreda/Carter/Russell.

It'll be interesting to see what the Sox do in the offseason and the next few years, though, as Peavy becomes the highest-paid player on the team in 2010.

The injury

Peavy's ankle injury obviously wasn't a big concern to the White Sox, who expect him back in late August. Here's the thing, though: even if Peavy doesn't pitch another game this year, the Sox still have him for at least three more years. He's not a half-year rental, he's a three or four-year investment—so keep that in mind if he doesn't make a start in a Sox uniform this year.

Remember, it's not an arm injury, it's an ankle injury that he sustained while running the bases. The White Sox aren't the Blackhawks—I'd have to think they poured over Peavy's medical report before pulling the trigger on this trade.

For fun, now: think about the Sox rotation In 2010. If all goes well, the White Sox could have a rotation of Peavy, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks.Most teams in the AL would be hard-pressed to feature four starters as good as that.

Final thoughts

I think both teams got a good deal with this trade. The Sox got a very good pitcher to add to their rotation for the next three or four years while the Padres got a nice haul of prospects who all could be big pieces in whatever rebuilding they're doing there.

Neither team made out like bandits, neither team got fleeced. In the end, I can see this trade working out very well for both teams.

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