The Halladay Race. Who Will Get Him (Originally Posted On My FB 7/23/09)

Pat EganCorrespondent IJuly 31, 2009

ST. LOUIS, MO - JULY 14: American League All-Star Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the 2009 MLB All-Star Game at Busch Stadium on July 14, 2009 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Pool/Getty Images)

Every day i wake up and i have a new take on the Roy Halladay situation. I figured i would run down the scenerios and what i think is possibly going on. I just want to say that i dont think that ANYONE other then JP Riccardi knows what is going to happen to Halladay. Every reporter seems to have a different tune on the matter. Im not a reporter by any stretch of the means but ill try my best to relay info.

One of my sources (and by sources i mean friends who knows alot.....i dont want to sound like Howard Eskin) told me something that makes perfect sense. He said that one of his friends who lives in Toronto brought up the idea that Roy Halladay demanded a trade. He brought his theory up to the editor of Sports Illustrated and he said it was very likely. Thinking about this more and more it makes perfect sense. I mean think about it.
Riccardi states "I will now listen to offers for Roy Halladay" Which was actually a lot smarter then Indians GM Mark Shipiro last year. Because Riccardi left the door open for a Halladay return where as Shipiro falt out stated "We are trading CC Sabathia" which meant that every team knew they had to make a trade. So kuddos to Riccardi because this fact will probably allow him to get more in a possible deal for Halladay then he would have if he just stated that they were deffinitly going to trade him. So that is what Riccardi did good.

But then Riccardi started stating that he didnt really want to trade Halladay and that in his gut he wouldnt be moved. Now think about this. Im going to use my fantasy team as an example. I have Ryan Howard. I love Ryan Howard. I have no plans of trading Ryan Howard. I know that and dont want to move him. So why would i go out and waste everyones time by saying "I will listen to offers for Howard" It looks more and more like this was a break up and Riccardi got dumped. But didnt release it to the media because the Jays would be able to get more if the information that Halladay demanded a trade did not leak out.

Reports comming from sources close to Halladay have stated that Halladay is out of it mentally. He is over being in Toronto. That makes a lot of sense if he would have demanded a trade considering there are hundreds of players every year who are thrown around in trade talks but they usually dont take it so personal whereas they are over being in a perticular city. Most just roll with the punches. If he demanded a trade it would make sense because he has finally accepted the fact that he wont be in Toronto next week

So my gut feeling is that Halladay WILL be moved. I believe he demanded a trade out of toronto and agreed to keep it hush hush from the media in order for the Jays to get as much as possible for the best pitcher in the game

SO lets look at the possible trade candidates

New York Yankees- Better chance of getting me to feel bad for Michael Jackson

Yanks main prospect is catcher Jesus Montero. He is currently in AA and he is extremly good. Like most Yankees prospects he will be talked about non stop and GM Brian Cashmen wont trade him. Mainly because he spent a decade trading every prospect he had so hes going to hang on to all of them now. But that doesnt stop Montero from Being in trade talk. Monetero will most likely hit the majors in possibly 2010 more likely in 2011. He projects as a very very good catcher. The reason the Jays dont want him. They too have a young catcher. But their young catcher is in AAA. I introduce you to J.P. Arencibia. He is currently hitting .244 with 10 HR's and 44 RBI's. He should be witht he Jays as early as september but will deffinitly be with them next season as their catchers are old and shitty. So the Jays dont need Montero because while Montero was ranked high by baseball America so was Arencibia. The other prospect the Yankees have is Austin Jackson. He is a 5 tool athlete who is currently bididing his time in AAA. He will take over for either Matsui or Damon when they move on. He projects as a leadoff guy with not much pop. He is hitting .318 with 4 bombs and 35 RBI's with 17 SB's. There are two problems surounding Jackson. The first is Cashmen has said he wont trade him and your looking at one of the few Yankees prospects who actually might get a shot to start (Phil Hughes is still waiting for a decent that will never come) The fact that their corner OF's are aging and comming up on free agency makes sense in a way. Also every team has an Austin Jackson. Now it might not be in AAA but every team has a speedy OF who projects for average no pop really and possible leadoff. So the Jays MAY want him but the Yanks arent going to give him up. And the Jays deffinitly wont trade Halladay for him. No need to continue because those are the only prospects worth naming in that system other then MAYBE Pat Vendette who could be a closer one day. Hes pitching in High A and youve prob heard of him because hes the pitcher who can throw with both arms. He was a Low A allstar last year and had good numbers this year in Low A aswell before recieving the call. But hes not a deal breaker. Yanks got no shot

Mets-A bigger joke then watching this 100 million dollar 4th place team is thinking they have a shot at Doc
They were lucky they got Santana for the shitty prospects tehy traded away. They havent done much since. There AA team just got challenged to a fight, not by another team, but by the Assistent of player development. While that tells you absolutly nothing about Halladay i thought it was funny. OK back to Roy. Jays want pitching. Mets dont have it. There 1st round pick from 07 went AWOL. no seriously. went home after TJ surgery and the organization has no idea of his plans for the future. Their best AAA pitcher is Nelson Figeroa. They drafted Eddie Kunz as their future closer.....hes got a plus 4 ERA in AAA. Jon Niese is their only ML ready young pitcher that has done anything decent in AAA. Hes got a 5-6 record with a 3.82 ERA. Thats their best pitching prospect right sad. The other position the Jays want is SS which the Mets actually have. They have Reuban Tejada (who was just involved in a bogus Halladay rumor) in AA. He is 19 and holding his own down there. Hes hitting .278 with 28 RBI's 8 SB's and hit his 3rd jack tonight. But much like Niese hes not enough. They have former 1st rounder Ike Davis who got the call to AA not too long ago. He plays 1B and that is a position the Jays could use with aging Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millar manning the position. While Davis hasnt been awful he also hasnt really been anything special. Combines between Single and Double A hes hitting .287 with 12 Hr's and 48 RBI's no SB's....Look i shouldnt even have wasted this much time on this shit hole of a franchise.

Brewers-Will They......Only if their really Ballsy
Last season the Brewers went out and traded their #1 prospect in Matt laporta to get CC Sabathia....only to see Shane Victorino go ape shit off of him in the playoffs and see CC walk his way to the Yanks. They traded a boat load for CC would they do the same for Halladay. Their a team who i kinda worry about the most because they do have the pieces. They have THREE 3b prospects who are all very good. Matt Gamel was one of my picks for ROTY at the beging of the season. He is penciled in for the hot corner next year and has seen his time in the majors already. Their other 3B prospect is Taylor Green. He is currently in AA hitting a respectable .293 with 4 jacks 30 RBI's and 0 SB's. He turns 24 in November. While hes a bit old and nothing special for AA hes not awful. And if the Brewers wanted to trade Gamel for Halladay Green would deffinitly be a downgrade but he wouldnt be Eric Bruntilett. Their third 3B is Brett Lawrie. He can play catcher, third and is currently learning to play second in High Single A where hes hitting .259 with 9 Hr's and 45 RBI's with 16 SB's. OO hes only 19. The Brewers could look to add any of these 3B in a possible deal with Gamel being the best option since he is major league ready. They could turn around and flip Rolen for prospects if they wanted too. The other position the Jays want is SS and the Brewers best prospect is a SS and a damn good one. Alcides Escobar could be the next great SS in the league. Hes probably going to be the 2010 Elvis Andrus. He is currently hitting .293 with 3 Hr's 29 RBI's and 33 SB's in AAA. Brewers GM Doug Melvin has stated that he would rather not part with his prized SS prospect. I cant blame him. The one thing that they are kind of short on is pitching prospects but ive heard Manny Parras named mentioned. I kinda doubt that Parra would be enough they would probably have to include former 1st rounder Jeremy Jefress but while most teams want Halladay to win the WS this would be a lot like last year. Halladay would be used to get them into the playoffs. I doubt they will pull the trigger because giving up your top prospects 2 straight years in a row is tough

Angles: Got the they have the cash?
Angels are a lot liek the Phillies. Their minor leagues are filled with pitchers and the Jays have stated that they are going to ask for pitching in return which makes them a possible fit. The first guy the Jays would ask for in return is Trevor Reckling. Hes a lefty currently in AA with a 2.66 ERA He had a .95 ERA in single A and is currently their best pitching prospect. The other guy their going to want is Brandon Wood. A popular name among baseball enthusiats for a few years now. He is their future 3B and is only hitting .313 with 17 HR's and 52 RBI's in AAA. Wood and Reckling would be the core of a deal with a few other pitchers thrown in the mix but Angels GM Tony Reagins has stated that while they like Halladay they financially might be strapped.

Red Sox- Have the pitching have the prospects have a bit of a problem though
That problem i mentioned is that they, like the Yankees play in the East. Same division as the Jays. And Riccardi isnt going to want to face Doc if he doesnt have too. Becuase of that A trade here is VERY unlikely. Any trade would probably involve Jed Lowrie who plays SS and was just released of the dreaded DL. He, along with Nick Green's good season, is why Julio Lugo was traded. Lowrie had good minor league numbers and many thought he would be a really good player one day but he hasnt done dick in the majors....yet. Should i even bother naming the plethora of pitching they have in their not going to waste your time hes not going to Boston. So Screw "THE NATION"

Phillies-if you dont know their chances then your amish and shouldnt be on a computer because its against ur beliefs
From Day 1 i said that i didnt want to give up Taylor of Happ. Anyone else is fair game. While im not going to name possible packages (because at this point im not going to tell you anything you already dont know) what i will say is this. One thing going overlooked in the Roy Halladay debacle is the Jays need a SS for next season. Jays GM JP Riccardi comes from the Billy Beene philosophy of building players up to collect the draft picks when they leave for greener pastures and thats exactly what he will do with SS Marco Scutaro. They need a SS for next year and they would DEFFINITLY pick one up in a Halladay deal. Its going overlooked in all the Drabek hype is the biggest thing helping the Phillies right now is SS/2B Jason Donald. Last year i stated the reasons on why the Blanton deal was good. One of the reasons i stated was because our #2 ranked prospect at the tiem (Adrian Cardenas) played 2B. And that position is, and will be, occupied for quite some time. When the Phillies didnt switch Cardenas to third in Single A i knew the writting was on the walll. It immediatly made Cardenas expendable. Same goes for Donald. He plays second and SS and those positions are filled and Donald is in AAA. So he, along with the Phillies, dont plan on waiting around for Rolling, or Utley to move to another team. The Phillies had plans on moving Donald to 3rd and actually did for the AFL. He hit .400 and his defense was a work in progress but when i noticed that he wasnt playing 3rd for the LHV Iron Pigs i dubbed Donald The Adrian Cardenas of 2009. The fact that the Phillies have a young, major league ready SS will help them out way more then Drabek. The Jays do have a young SS of their own in their system named Justin Jackson but he is a long way away (Single A and not hitting well) So if the Phillies trade for Halladay i fully expect to see Donald in the deal. The Jays supposedly loved him last season. Hes having a bad year but i dont think its anything to worry about.

i just want to state that normally when a guy is put on the market i try to be the voice of reason. I try to state why we dont either need him or wont get him. But the fact is we do need him. and we can get him. But their is a huge difference from being the hottest guy at the party and getting laid. Its become obvious now that the Phillies are the front runners and i dont want to part with JA Happ or Michael Taylor. I honestly dont know where they would put Taylor considering they do have Travis Snider in the minors. But Taylor is a beast. He is a horse of a different color and a special 5 tool athlete. I think the reason the Phillies are way more willing to trade Taylor then Dominick Brown is because Taylor is in AAA while Brown is in single A. And with the current OF structure the Phillies have it doesnt look like Taylor will see playing time until 2011 at the earliest. but I love Taylor and know where ever he will go he will be an all star for years to come. The other guy is Drabek. Its not that i dont like Drabek it just pisses me off that the media makes it look like he is the only pitcher we have. This organization is SOOO deep at pitching. and if we get Halladay we really wont have a need for a starter. Keep in mind we have Bastardo on the DL Carrasco in AAA and Andrew Carpenter who in AAA has a MID 2 ERA. YES ANDREW CARPENTER MID 2 ERA AND HES ONLY 24. Ill even mention Johan Flande, Mathew Way Trevor May, Julio Rodriguez, Michael Cisco, Vance Worley, Michael Stutes, John Pettibone,Jason Knapp, Colby Shreeve. ECT. All of those names are damn good young players. to keep onto Drabek with all that in the system is foolish. This isnt 2002 when our only pitching prospects were Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels. We are deep at pitching and can afford to give up Drabek. I wont give up Happ.....although then some days i would

Riccardi has a chance to write the wrong he created. He hasnt exactly done a bang up job with free agent signings and trades. He could change the face of a franchise and while i Love Doc he goes every 5th day. If the Jays were to get every day players for him he has to do it.

Hypothetical trade

The 2011 Jays could possibly look like
C) JP Arencibi
1st) Michael Taylor
2B) Aaron Hill
SS) Jason Donald
3B) Kevin Ahrens
OF) Adam Lind
OF) Alex Rios
OF) Travis Snider
DH) Vernon Wells

SP) Ricky Romero
SP) Dustin Mcgowen
SP) Kyle Drabek
SP) Marc Rzepczynski
SP) Brett Cecil

Folks thats a really good young lineup. with a touch of vetern presence. I think that screams the 08 Rays. A healthy mix of speed and power.

I Think Halladay will be traded by the deadline
I think Halladay demanded a trade
I think the Phillies will get him
I think that whatever deal gets done Jason Donald will be involved
I think JP Riccardi can finally make right for all those wrongs (CAUGH Blow Job Ryan)
I think every reporter who says "they think" doesnt know anymore then me or you

This will be on Paperback in the fall