Countdown to Trade Deadline Super Analysis

I decided it would be fun to do a trade deadline analysis. Because cramming 30 teams worth of writing into the day before the deadline (24 and a half hours from starting, to be exact). So, I figured I’d keep it to the players listed on MLB.com’s Trade Deadline coverage.

Each player will be assessed by whether their team is a buyer or seller, how good they are, what teams would want them, and how likely the trade is. This is by no means a comprehensive guide. MLB.com sorts its players by position, and multi-position players are only listed once, so away we go.

Catchers

Victor Martinez
Team: With the Cliff Lee trade, the Indians appear to be sellers.
Value: Martinez was an all-star this year, and can also play first base. He has 15 home runs, a .284 average, and an .832 OPS.
Destination: Boston is rumored. Mets need offense and could use a catcher.
Likely? Probably not, but I would have said the same thing about Cliff Lee a week ago. On a side note, some MLB.com commenters are delusional; one last week apparently suggested the Red Sox should trade for Martinez using Varitek and Kotsay. No, really. He was shot down, though.

Yorvit Torrealba
Team: The Rockies are sellers right now, so he’d have to be dealt for something else they need.
Value: He has a 71 OPS+, and he’s 31, so he’d be a back-up.
Destination: The only rumors I’ve seen for the Rockies involve the Nationals and the Orioles. I don’t see either taking him.
Likely? No.

Corner Infield (This is how MLB.com has it divided)

Miguel Tejada (why MLB.com has him here, I don't know)
Team: The Astros are always buyers.
Value: He’s hitting well this year, although there have been questions about how much of that is from Minute Maid. His range is decreasing.
Destination: Stay in Houston
Likely? No

Garrett Atkins
Team: As previously said, the Rockies are buyers.
Value: Hitting .224 with 6 home runs.
Destination: None I can think of. The Rockies aren’t selling, and I can’t imagine teams salivating at a corner infielder with these stats. If he goes, it’s as a throw-in.
Likely? Nah.

Jorge Cantu
Team: The Marlins are in the running still, so they are buyers still, I suppose. That may change in August, but that applies to several teams.
Value: He has a good average (.285), decent OPS (.782), and some pop (10 homers).
Destination: The Giants need offense, and there’s the rumor he would go there. It hasn’t died for several months, but...
Likely? Maybe 30% he goes. Depending on how the Marlins play, it may go up for August.

Nick Johnson
Team: The Nationals are most definitely sellers.
Value: Actually, quite a bit, with a 117 OPS+.
Destination: The Mets seem to be lacking a bat with Delgado out. The Giants, again. Maybe Texas, if they need a hitter, as Buster Olney says. Maybe the Red Sox.
Likely? He probably should go, as the Nats need prospects.

Joe Crede
Team: Twins, Looking down the list, several players seem to be on contenders. For these players, expect Buyers, meaning it’s unlikely they’ll be traded unless they’re very expendable, in which case, I’ll elaborate, or used as bait.

Hank Blalock
Team: Rangers, Buyers, although probably bait.

Mark Teahen
Team: The Royals SHOULD be sellers, but...
Value: Multi-positional, and a 107 OPS+, so he’s worth a bit.
Destination: Probably none.
Likely? Royals GM Dayton Moore doesn’t want to trade “core players”, so probably no.

Melvin Mora
Team: Orioles, Sellers
Value: Not a whole lot (71 OPS+)
Destination: He’s in the last year of his contract, and his family is in Baltimore, so he’d probably go to a contender needing a bench player. He’s too expensive for that, though.
Likely? No

Chad Tracy
Team: Diamondbacks, Sellers
Value: Almost identical to Mora, but slightly cheaper.
Destination: Nowhere, very fast.
Likely? Only to my suggested destination.

Josh Fields
Team: Buyers, but could be trade bait, as the White Sox have Gordon Beckham.

Ty Wigginton
Team: Orioles, Sellers
Value: Can play outfield and corner infield, with some power.
Destination: Any team needing offense, depth, or both.
Likely? Depends on what happens to Mora and Aubrey Huff. If either goes, he’s their replacement.

Kevin Millar
Team: Blue Jays, Probably Sellers
Value: Older than Tracy and Mora, and fewer defensive options, but a slightly better hitter.
Destination: Anywhere that needs a lot of depth at first base, which doesn’t seem likely.
Likely? Nope.

Mike Jacobs
Team: See Mark Teahen
Value: Butcher with the glove at an already stacked posittion, has power, but no ability to get on base.
Destination: See Mark Teahen
Likely? See Mark Teahen

Adam Kennedy
Team: A’s, Sellers
Value: 112 OPS+, and can play the whole infield.
Destination: The A’s apparently want to keep him.
Likely? Orlando Cabrera’s more feasible if you want an A’s middle infielder.

Kevin Kouzmanoff
Team: Padres, Sellers, but there may not be any interest.

Blake DeWitt
Team: Dodgers, Buyers, may be bait

Jose Bautista
Team: Blue Jays, Sellers
Value: Average utility player.
Destination: All I can find is the ‘Stros may be interested.
Likely? With the Astros as the only candidates? Who knows. They probably want him, but have no prospects to get him.

Jeff Larish
Team: Tigers, Buyers, may be bait

Middle Infield

Dan Uggla
Team: Marlins, Buyers (see Cantu)

J.J. Hardy
Team: Brewers, Buyers, but he may be bait for a pitcher.

Orlando Cabrera
Team: A’s, Sellers
Value: None, unless your team uses Nick Punto or someone similar as a middle infielder.
Destination: Twins seem interested (‘cause, you know, they have Nick Punto).
Likely? Yes (first one with straight “yes”, I think)

Kelly Johnson
Team: Braves, Buyers, but he’s bait. And he’ll probably be part of a multi-player package.

Aaron Miles
Team: Cubs, Buyers. Additionally, he’s there utility player who’s been injured all year. Unlikely he moves.

Jamey Carroll
Team: Indians, Sellers
Value: Mostly as an average utility player.
Destination: Anyone needing depth. He probably won’t start.
Likely? Only if they get a half-decent prospect. Whether anyone will offer that, though...

John McDonald
Team: Blue Jays, Sellers
Value: Defensive wizard at short, below average bat.
Destination: Anyone needing to shore up their defense/acquire a back-up.
Likely? Unlikely.

Outfield

MLB.com seems to think every Major League Outfielder is on the blocks. First, the unlikely-to-be-dealt:
Brad Hawpe +
Jermaine Dye +
Milton Bradley $
Carl Crawford +
Juan Pierre +
Magglio Ordonez $
Ryan Ludwick +
Corey Hart +
Delmon Young -
Melky Cabrera +
Ryan Spilborghs +
Jose Guillen $
Brett Gardner +
Andruw Jones +
Cody Ross +
Jeremy Hermidia +
Rick Ankiel +
Elijah Dukes -
Austin Kearns -
David DeJesus
Fernando Martinez
Gary Matthews, Jr. $
Scott Podsednik +

There, I just saved 20 minutes of your life. For the key: $ means their contract is too big, + means they’re on a contender that is unlikely to use them other than bait to see what they can get, and - means no one in their right mind would take them (expect the Royals to make an offer). That leaves DeJesus and Martinez, and their teams seem reluctant to deal them.
To those left.

Adam Dunn
Team: Nationals, Sellers
Value: Power hitter, mostly at first base or DH.
Destination: Unknown; the Nationals supposedly have a high asking price.
Likely? Yes

Randy Winn
Team: Giants, Buyers
Value: Below average outfielder.
Destination: San Francisco is probably reluctant to give up a bat unless they get one back.
Likely? No

Aubrey Huff
Team: Orioles, Sellers
Value: Has some power, but having a bad year.
Destination: The usual, offense-starved teams.
Likely? Maybe a little less than Wigginton.

Luke Scott
Team: Orioles, Sellers
Value: Under control for three more years, and brings a big bat.
Destination: Stays in Baltimore.
Likely? Only to stay, unless something big is offered.

Garrett Anderson
Team: Braves, Unknown, may wait until August
Value: Declining outfield bat
Destination: Whatever team needs depth/a back-up.
Likely? Not really.

Josh Willingham
Team: Nationals, Sellers
Value: Two more seasons under control, and he’s a decent hitter.
Destination: Probably won’t move. Not many teams seem interested.
Likely? No

Fernando Tatis
Team: Mets, Buyers
Value: Not much
Destination: Nowhere
Likely? The Mets need depth, so no.

Starters

MLB.com has this one crowded, too. Some quick sorting, like with the Outfielders.
Javier Vazquez +
Rich Harden +
Phil Hughes +
Jason Marquis +
Vincente Padilla +
Jonathan Sanchez +
Andy Sonnanstine + (although these last two have been linked to trade talks for prospects/other help)
Nate Robertson -
Kyle Davies - (already with the Royals, though)

Additionally, Jose Contreras and Tim Redding seem unlikely to be moved, as few teams will need them enough to give up prospects. Also, James McDonald could be used as a trading chip, but it is unlikely he will be moved to a contender. Jake Peavey seems unlikely, as he’s already shot down a trade and is now injured. Now, onward.

Roy Halladay
Team: Blue Jays, Sellers
Value: A lot. He’s, like, the Hope Diamond of the market, right now.
Destination: Most talks seem to have died down, with the last rumors I’ve seen involving the Rangers.
Likely: Will likely go down to the wire. Deals have already gone from likely to dead several times, and with a few teams.

Erik Bedard
Team: Mariners, Buyers, but could change.
Value: A runner-up to Halladay.
Destination: Whoever doesn’t get Halladay, probably. Milwaukee is also involved.
Likely: About the same as Halladay, maybe more. However, his injuries make this one hard to tell.

Brad Penny
Team: Red Sox, Buyers, but have been actively marketing him as a trade chip.
Value: Good middle-of the rotation starter.

Doug Davis
Team: Diamondbacks, Sellers
Value: Makes a good number two or three starter.
Destination: A team in need of a solid innings-eater. The Mets seem to come up in every MLB.com capsule, and it gets rather boring listing them over and over, but here they are again.
Likely: Yes

Bronson Arroyo
Team: Reds, Sellers
Value: An expensive power pitcher. As in, the other team’s line-up becomes full of power hitters when facing him.
Destination: Teams really desperate for a starter.
Likely: No

Carl Pavano
Team: Indians, Sellers
Value: About as good as Arroyo, maybe a little better. And he’s cheaper.
Destination: AS MLB.com puts it, “Any contending team needing a boost in the middle of the rotation.”
Likely: Unlikely

Jarrod Washburn
Team: Mariners, Buyers, could change
Value: A very good number-two starter (this year); trade chip
Destination: Pitching-hungry teams, including the Brewers.
Likely: The Mariners have a high asking price. We’ll see.

Jon Garland
Team: Diamondbacks, Sellers
Value: About the same as Arroyo.
Destination: Nowhere
Likely: To go nowhere

Relief Pitchers

Relief Pitching seems like a crapshoot to me, especially middle relief. Even MLB.com seems unsure of some relievers’ value. For example, they say left hander Eddie Guardado “could be a left-handed reliever for somebody”. Anyway, the following relievers are on playoff contenders, and, I imagine, less likely to be traded:
Jose Valverde
Huston Street
Mike Gonzalez
Takashi Saito
Rafael Soriano
Eddie Guardado
LaTroy Hawkins
Octavio Dotel
Clay Rapada
Scott Elbert
Brian Stokes
Alfredo Aceves
Sean Green
Now, that isn’t to say they won’t go. Some teams may decide to give up, especially come August. Some teams may decide they have enough bullpen arms and need something else. Alternatively, a team could push the panic button and go for one of these guys. Anyway, on to the leftovers!

Francisco Cordero
Team: Reds, Sellers
Value: Good closer, but very expensive.
Destination: I can’t imagine any team that’s in playoff contention taking on a $12 million dollar closer, as most already have a serviceable closer or are unwilling to pay that much.
Likely? No

Danys Baez
Team: Orioles, Sellers
Value: I have trouble taking relief pitchers’ value seriously, usually. And then I think of the Cardinals last year.
Destination: Relief pitching-starved team.
Likely? If possible, he will go.

David Weathers
Team: Reds, Sellers
Value: He’s a reliever. That’s about as differentiated as you’re going to get here.
Destination: Whoever wants to pay his $4 million for one year salary. Seems a lot for a middle reliever, to me.
Likely? If possible, he will go.

Ron Mahay
Team: Royals. That alone should tell you he won’t be moved. GM Moore doesn’t want to break up such a “successful” team

Ron Villone
Team: Nationals, Sellers
Value: MLB.com claims he’s having a career year
Destination: Anywhere that will offer a pitching prospect, apparently.
Likely? If possible, he will go.

In conclusion, I think trades excite MLB.com writers. That took much longer than I thought it would (ten hours, with procrastination). Was it worth it? Well, it depends on who my teams get.