THREE UP/THREE DOWN
Hitters
- Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B – BOS (UP) Nobody is hotter in the league right now than Kevin Youkilis. He's developed into one of the toughest outs in the league, and is now beginning to show a power stroke to boot. Youkilis has a total of nine home runs on the season, seven of which have come in May—including four in four games last week against the troubled Tigers pitching staff. He is already over halfway to his career high of 16 from last season. He just keeps getting better and better. Youkilis’ K percent has decreased each season since 2004 while his HR/FB rate has increased each year since 2004. While this current power streak will not be sustainable, his batting average, potential for 20-25 home runs, 100 RBI and 100 runs easily makes Youkilis a top fantasy player.
- David Ortiz, Util – BOS (UP) Watch out American League, “Big Papi” is back. David Ortiz has snapped out of his near month long slump and since April 30 has hit .391 with three home runs and eight RBI. He has pulled his average above the .240 mark and is once again swinging the bat with the confidence and balance that we have become accustomed to seeing. Assuming his knee holds up for the remainder of the season, there is no reason that he won’t have another 30-plus home run season with 120 RBI.
- Ichiro Suzuki, OF – SEA (UP) Ichiro is in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak which has raised his average from .252 to .292. Included in this streak has been a significant jump in stolen bases. Ichiro has stolen 10 bases in his last 11 games to give him a total of 16 on the season, putting him on a pace to steal over 60 bases for the season, which would pass his career high of 56 from his rookie season of 2001. When looking over his career splits, we should not have been surprised by his slow start. The month of April is the only month in which Ichiro does not have a batting average over .300, and that is still a great average of .294.
- Evan Longoria, 3B – TB (DOWN) Longoria was cruising along with an OPS of .915, three home runs and 10 RBI through April. He was right on track to live up to the hype, but his first rookie slump set in once the calendar flipped months. In May, Longoria has only four hits in 35 at-bats lowering his batting average to .211, plus he has struck out 10 times over these at-bats. Overall on the season, Longoria has a 72.2 percent contact rate and a BABIP of .238. Both are likely to rise, but expecting a batting average of .275 or higher looks unlikely this season. Still though, his 14.8 HR/FB percent could still be good for 20-plus home runs potential.
- Alex Rios, OF – TOR (DOWN) Another fast starter to the 2008 season, Rios is now going through his first slump of the season. In his past seven games, Rios has only five hits in 31 at-bats, and has only one RBI in the entire month of May. The strikeouts have been the main culprit in his drop as he has struck out 13 times during this slump. His K percent for the season now stands at a career high rate of 25.9 percent, not what a team needs at the leadoff position. It’s no wonder the Jays have stopped scoring runs of late. If this should continue, his average will suffer and Rios will likely stay around the .275-.280 range, but will still give great all-around stats. Rios currently has a .280 average, three home runs and eight stolen bases on the season.
- Jim Thome, Util – CHW (DOWN) It’s been all or nothing for Jim Thome this season; he does have seven home runs, but has only a .220 batting average and 40 strikeouts. The strange part is that he has struggled against right-handed pitchers instead of the usual lefties. His average against right-handers is .205 with a .375 slugging percentage, compared to his average against lefties, .257 with a .600 slugging percentage. It most definitely is odd, but all is not lost; his terrible strikeout rate is not far from career norms, and his walk total has regressed, but it has not been that significant as he is still walking 16 percent of the time. With his BABIP a mere .250, as compared to his career .329 average, I still see a hot streak in Thome’s future.
Pitchers
- Daniel Cabrera, SP – BAL (UP) The teasing never stops with Cabrera. He is looking as good as ever in his last six starts, save for the seven walk performance a couple of starts back, but over those six starts he has not allowed more than three earned runs and has thrown six or more innings in each. In his last start against Kansas City, Cabrera went the distance striking out seven while allowing one run on three hits, and more importantly walking just one. He is yet to turn 27 years old, so it is possible that he could still get better, but be very careful, his BB/9 is still over four and his Fielding Independent ERA is 4.75.
- Vicente Padilla, SP – TEX (UP) A Texas starting pitcher actually made a hot list. Padilla has been the one solid in the Rangers rotation to this point with five wins in eight starts. He also sports a solid 3.02 ERA and is looking more and more like the pitcher who won 15 games with a 4.50 ERA in 2006, as his vitals, a BABIP of .300, K/BB ratio of 1.83 and HR/FB rate of 10.0 percent are all right in line with career norms. The only exception is his LOB percentage of 81.1, which shows he has had some luck there, but Padilla looks like he could sustain a run for an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range for the season. He is a back of the rotation option for deep mixed leagues.
- C.C. Sabathia, SP – CLE (UP) The reigning AL CY Young winner is returning to form. Over his past four starts, Sabathia is 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a 32 to 6 K/BB ratio in 27 and one-third innings of work. His great control, which was his key to success last season, has returned. His overall ERA now stands at 6.55, but after his poor start to the season, it will take awhile for that to look respectable. Going forward, Sabathia looks to one of the top three starting pitchers in the American League.
- Kevin Millwood, SP – TEX (DOWN) Through April 20, Millwood pitched his way to a 2.53 ERA with four quality starts. Since then, Millwood is 1-1, but his ERA over this period is 9.98 with four home runs allowed. Plus, on Saturday Millwood left in the first inning of a start with a strained groin muscle that has landed him on the disabled list. If you happened to have owned Millwood I’d move on and find a new starter and stay as far away from Millwood as possible even when he returns.
- Justin Verlander, SP – DET (DOWN) Something is not right. We have nearly hit the quarter mark of the season and Justin Verlander still has one win and an ERA of 6.43. There has been a lot of talk about dead arm and his arm angle upon delivering the pitch. Whatever it is, Verlander’s K/9 has decreased significantly from 8.17 to 5.51, shown a regression of his BB/9 back to his rookie year of 3.86 and seen a drop of nearly two MPH on his fastball. All of this adds up to more balls in play equaling more hits. Add in more walks and you have a recipe for disaster. Although, he does have an unlucky 56.4 LOB percentage, which should help his ERA go back down when he begins stranding some of these runners. Overall, Verlander is a player to hold for the time being. His value is very low, so you won’t get much in a trade, thus I’d just sit him during his starts until he shows improvement and regains some of his value.
- Jered Weaver, SP - LAA (DOWN) After starting the season hoping to become the ace of the staff while fellow pitchers John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar were injured, Weavers’ season has quickly gone south. In four of his last six starts, Weaver has allowed four or more runs topping out at an eight runs against in his last start in Kansas City. A disturbing sign is that his BABIP is .323, LOB percentage of 66.5 and K/9 of 5.98 is down for the second consecutive year. These all are a little on the unlucky side as compared to his career, but when looking back at his rookie career , it looks as if it has helped to overvalue Weaver. His BABIP that year was .246 and his LOB percentage was 86.2 percent! He will likely work his ERA back into the 4.00-4.50 range, but don’t expect ace numbers.
INJURY REPORT
Alex Rodriguez’ stint on the disabled list is looking like it could extend out if any problems are found in an MRI. The MRI will be taken this morning to ensure that his quadriceps injury has healed enough to begin his rehab assignment. If all is well, he will begin in extended spring training Tuesday and try to return by the weekend.
Manny Ramirez did not start either game on Saturday or Sunday against the Twins to nurse some soreness in his right hamstring. It appears to be nothing serious, but definitely keep a close eye to the problem. As we know, hamstring injuries like to linger.
John Lackey has finished his rehab with an 88-pitch extended spring training game on Friday without any problems. He will be back in the Angels’ rotation this week, likely with Nick Adenhart going back to Triple-A Salt Lake.
Howie Kendrick suffered another setback, a tweak of his hamstring, which caused him to sit out two straight minor league rehab starts last week. He says he is about 90 percent and will likely return by the end of this week, assuming he doesn’t suffer any more problems…Stay tuned.
Another Angel, Chone Figgins, has been placed on the disabled list. Figgins is also suffering from a hamstring strain. His injury is retroactive to May 4, which should put him eligible to return next Monday if all goes well. With so many infielders on the shelf, the Angels will have to turn to youngsters Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood along with veteran Rob Quinlan for increased roles.
Just as Vernon Wells started to heat up, he dove for a ball in a game Friday night in Cleveland falling awkwardly on his wrist. It was later revealed that it was he had broken it and the Jays placed him on the disabled list for six to eight weeks. This will give Brad Wilkerson another shot at playing everyday in right field as Alex Rios moves to center field to cover for Wells.
The Jays also lost Jeremy Accardo after Friday night’s game to a strained right forearm. This helps to make sense of why his strikeout totals were virtually non-existent this season while having a 6.57 ERA. Drop him if you should have had him for extra save chances, Scott Downs and Jesse Carlson had passed him over for those opportunities already anyway.
The Blue Jays have also lost both of their shortstops, David Eckstein and John McDonald, on the same day, May 8. Each will be sidelined for the next couple of weeks leaving Marco Scutaro to pick up more at-bats.
Scott Baker of the Twins was off to a fine start to the season with a 2-0 record and 4.09 ERA, but has been slowed by a recurring groin problem, which has landed the young starter on the disabled list. He is likely to be out just the two weeks before returning and will once again be a solid back of the rotation starter.
Twins’ reliever Pat Neshek will miss at least three months and maybe the season with a partially torn ligament in his pitching arm. He may need to have Tommy John surgery, though the Twins are currently holding out on that option and are planning on a return to spring training next year.
WALKING THE WIRE (possible waiver wire pickups)
- Melvin Mora, 3B – BAL If you are looking for some corner infield help, look towards Melvin Mora. Mora is currently batting only .252, but this is in large part to a slight unlucky .270 BABIP as compared to his career .313 mark. His K percentage has also decreased, making an increase in average likely to come. This makes the return of his power all that more intriguing. Mora has raised HR/FB rate for a second consecutive year after his power outage of 2006. It now has returned to a 12 percent level similar to his 2005 season when he hit 27 home runs. If he can reverse his unusual trend towards groundballs, Mora could reach the 20 home run plateau again and hit .280.
- Milton Bradley, OF – TEX Still owned in only 47 percent of ESPN leagues, Milton Bradley should be looked at to fill any outfield voids on your team. When healthy and not suspended, this guy can still swing the bat. He currently is hitting .311 with five home runs and 20 RBI. He is currently hitting cleanup for the Rangers, which should add to his RBI potential. Though beware of his 77 percent contact rate and .364 BABIP. His average is likely to fall, but right now he is worth a look while he is playing well and in a good spot in the lineup.
- Justin Duchscherer, SP – OAK The long time set-up man has worked his way into the A’s starting rotation and has not disappointed. He also stayed in the rotation even upon Rich Harden being activated. In four starts, Duchscherer has yet to allow more than two runs or six hits in any of them. His record stands at 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and he has kept his very fine K/9 at 7.36 to go along with a .290 BABIP. Whether or not he will be able to sustain this run in the rotation is yet to be seen as he’s had a problem in his bicep along with an arthritic hip, but for the time being he is a solid option if you need a starter.
- Santiago Casilla, RP – OAK If you are in a mixed league and happened to have owned Pat Neshek, hurry up and pick up Casilla if he is still available. The hard-throwing right-hander has allowed a total of 16 base runners in 19 and one-third innings while striking out 22. He allowed his first run of the season Saturday, giving him an ERA of 0.47. He is no stranger to runs like this. Last season Casilla, in 20 innings before the All-Star break, had a 0.40 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 29 and one-third innings before command issues surfaced raising his ERA to 4.44. He would most likely be first in line for saves should anything happen to Huston Street. Though, pay careful attention to those walks, he does have a history of a BB/9 over four.
FUTURES MARKET
Francisco Liriano has made some progress his past couple of starts for Rochester. In two starts last week Liriano pitched 11 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits, three earned runs while striking out nine and walking six. His ERA in Triple-A now stands at 4.66.
Royals’ top hitting prospect Mike Moustakas was suffering at the plate with an average under .200 through most of April. He stood at .181 on May 2 before going 11 for 29 with three home runs over his next seven games to raise his average to .223 with four home runs. He will not be on the fantasy radar this year, but keep an eye on this young shortstop.
Last week I detailed Brett Anderson who was acquired by Oakland in the Dan Haren deal, this week I will mention another Oakland acquisition from this deal, outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez was just recently activated from the Triple-A disabled list and currently is hitting .310 with three homers and 12 RBI in 86 at-bats. He will likely get a call-up at some point in the near future with guys like Travis Buck and Chris Denorfia struggling to stay in the lineup.
Another of Oakland’s fine young players, Gio Gonzalez, has struggled in his first trip through Triple-A. Through seven starts, his record stands at 0-2 with an ERA of 5.18 and he has only thrown more than five innings only once. His K/9 has also gone down from 11.10 last year to 7.00 on top of a 5.33 BB/9. If he gets a shot this year it will likely be as a September call-up the way the Oakland rotation has been performing.
As if the Rays didn’t already have enough young talent, number one overall pick from last years draft, David Price, is set to begin his professional career after two more extended spring training starts. He threw three innings allowing one run on two hits while striking out four. He will report to Single-A Vero Beach and could get a shot by September with the Rays.
After a brief call-up to Toronto, Adam Lind was returned to Syracuse after his 1-19 slump. Lind was batting .358 with a .567 slugging percentage before the call-up. Lind will likely be recalled in the near future should newly added veterans Kevin Mench or Brad Wilkerson struggle. Upon his demotion, Lind is 3 for 12 with a double in three games.
After being demoted in favor of Kei Igawa, who promptly reverted back to last year’s form, Ian Kennedy made a successful start for Scranton Wilkes-Barre. Kennedy went 7 1/3 innings shut-out innings allowing one hit, no walks while striking out eight. Kennedy started the season 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA with the Yankees.
BUY LOW/SELL HIGH PLAYERS OF THE WEEK
- Buy – Nick Swisher, 1B/OF – CHW The 2008 season is not going as planned for Swisher, he began as the leadoff hitter for the Sox, scoring 20 runs in 30 games, but has since been moved down to sixth in the lineup with his .202 batting average and 34 strikeouts. Still, his OBP is .333 even with the struggles at the plate. There are a few signs that point to this as a bad start that could get better. Swisher has a BABIP of .247, when his career BABIP is .285, an uncharacteristically low HR/FB rate of 8.3 percent as compared to 14 percent career rate, which took place in a poor HR park in Oakland, and a third straight season with an increase in BB percentage, up to 16.7 percent of at-bats. Not to mention that his LD percentage is 22 percent. It is only a matter of time before his balls in play find the holes and start flying out of U.S. Cellular, I’d buy while his tag is low.
- Sell - Emil Brown, OF – OAK Please tell me why Emil Brown has popped up on so many add lists recently. Has he learned how to become a better player overnight? I don’t see it. He has been lucky in one category. His batting average with runners in scoring position is a ridiculous .455! That is why he is second in the league in RBI with 33. With no power to speak of (7 percent HR/FB), minimal steals and an average likely to tumble when his uncharacteristic 7.6 K percent increases towards his 21 percent career average, I would try hard to sell his RBI total and get a true value in return before he begins his regression.
RANKING OF THE WEEK – TOP 10 AL RELIEF PITCHERS
1. Joe Nathan, MIN
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
4. Joakim Soria, KC
5. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
6. J.J. Putz, SEA
7. Bobby Jenks, CHW
8. Huston Street, OAK
9. B.J. Ryan, TOR
10. George Sherrill, BAL
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5 months ago
Vicente Padilla has had flashes of greatness before.
Now watch him blow up in your face allowing 4ER in tonights first inning - and it's not over. Don't think hes a very safe bet at all.
from 5 months ago
True, but in deep mixed leagues I see him as an option for someone who might like to play matchups. In any standard Yahoo or ESPN leagues, which are not very deep into the player pools, he is definitely a risky start. I did state that his LOB% was lucky and his ERA would increase into 4.00's and not stay where it was. Thanks for the update.
5 months ago
Okay, i imagine he would be a good alternative in a 14-16 team league.
I defeinitely have to agree about Youkilis, fantasy steal - versatile, complete package R,RBI, solid AVG, and increasing power.
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