1 Kimi Räikkönen 35 2 Felipe Massa 28 3 Lewis Hamilton 28
4 Robert Kubica 24
5 Nick Heidfeld 20
6 Heikki Kovalainen 14
7 Mark Webber 10
8 Jarno Trulli 9
9 Fernando Alonso 9
Seven points covering the top three drivers. We head now to two tracks that suit the Mclaren a bit better than Ferrari, so it has the potential to get closer.
Beating Raikkonen was a big score for Hamilton today, and if he can make the most of the next two races, it could close right up. Also Mclaren definitely seemed to close up a bit development wise.
If Raikkonen had finished ahead of Hamilton today, Raikkonen would have opened up a double figure points margin of 11 points. Instead the gap is seven points, so that will give Hamilton great confidence going to Monaco.
After a stuttering run, Hamilton has got himself sorted and is well in the fight in this title race. Massa is also closer. Now, just seven points behind Raikkonen just like Hamilton.
But if he doesn't perform at Monaco as he normally doesn't and doesn't get in the top two at Montreal, which will also be very difficult, then he will fall back again.
In my opinion, after Montreal, Massa will be over 10 points behind again. Ferrari, though, will still allow Massa to win when he is faster and still mathematically in it.
So technically speaking that could help Hamilton close the gap on Kimi faster. Although luckily for Raikkonen, there isn’t a track in the near future that Massa will definitely win at.
Kimi should edge over Massa for a long string of races now as long as he keeps his mind on the game and doesn’t give Massa any reason to make his confidence any higher. The next two races are really important for Heikki. He needs to make ground up, but at the same time, Mclaren know Lewis is the main challenger, so a slightly different scenario there.
It’s been very unfortunate for him to have scored zero points from the last two races.
In Spain, he could do nothing to prevent that big accident and unfortunately a slight tag from Kimi today at the start caused a puncture, which destroyed his race totally and these two races could destroy his season.
If Heikki and Hamilton are leading Monaco 1-2 with Raikkonen third, surely Mclaren would rather Hamilton was in first and took four points off Kimi instead of two. This could become a potential problem for Mclaren in the next few races. Taking all things into account, I still think this will be a two horse race between Lewis and Kimi as was predicted before the beginning of the season.
Over the season, Raikkonen should edge it over Lewis.
At least we know we will see a battle for it right till the end of the season as the previous three races suggested the title could potentially be won in the summer like in the years of Michael. Kubica might pop into the mix at if they perform at Monaco. A slower track may help them bridge the gap, but overall I doubt they will win more than one or two races this year if any. Kubica will also fall back as the season goes on.
Let’s take a lot of how things are taking shape in the Constructor’s championship now.
Ferrari 63 BMW Sauber 44 Mclaren/Mercedes 42 points
In the battle for the constructor’s crown, Ferrari takes a further lead over their main opponents, Mclaren and BMW.
Ferrari have been able to score big points in the last two races whereas only one Mclaren has scored in the last three races, which has cost them to Ferrari quite badly in terms of this championship.
However, the gap is still manageable if Mclaren can get big results for both their cars in Monaco and Montreal.
However, DNFs in these two races could help Ferrari build too big gap, therefore could force Mclaren to focus more on the Driver’s championship.
BMW Sauber looked to be very close to the front-runners in the fast four races, but today they took quite a sizeable step backwards which is a bit of a concern. Their sheer consistency had put them top of the table after round three in Bahrain.
My feeling is although BMW will have a few more great weekends this season on tracks that suit them well the general picture, we saw today will remain in most of the rest of the races this season.
Mclaren and Ferrari battling for wins closely with BMW on their own behind them.
Comments (2) Add a comment »
from 3 days ago
Your analysis is very interesting, and I like the way you're looking at a Lewis-Kimi two way title fight.
Massa has his chance and he has proven again he can win GP's taking his second win of the season however I wouldn't count on Kimi Raikkonen to slip up or make silly mistakes let alone lose focus, the guy is way too driven and that's set him apart from Hamilton and Massa in particular, when pressure is on Raikkonen delivers and that's why he is our world champion.
in terms of the next two races Monaco and Montreal, advantage McLaren BUT expect Ferrari to bring back the hole nose innovation and this could be a different story altogether!
from 2 days ago
I think Massa will be in the hunt this year. Last year it was mainly bad luck that put him out of it.
Historically Massa has gone quite well at Montreal - I seem to remember a 4th place finish while he was at Sauber. Last year he was unlucky with the pit lane exit being closed, which got him disqualified.
I think we should also be cautious in predicting that Monaco and Montreal will suit the McLaren more - sure, they did last year, but that's no guarantee that the pattern will be repeated.
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