Recently, the Baltimore Orioles rotation has been pathetic. Brad Bergesen has been consistent, and David Hernandez has stepped up big time in Koji Uehara's absence. However, Jeremy Guthrie, Rich Hill, and Jason Berken continue to struggle.

The Bad and Ugly

In a 7-2 loss to the Boston Red Sox on July 24, Guthrie allowed five runs in approximately seven innings, walking three, striking out two, and allowing a home run. On the year, Guthrie is 7-9 with a 5.21 ERA, has allowed 23 homers in 20 starts, and while he has pitched an occasional gem, he has rarely (if that) pitched good games with consistency.

It's an incredibly disappointing performance from Guthrie, a guy who was the ace of the staff last year, and went into the 2009 season as the Opening Day starter, and has looked like a 4/5 so far this year, at best. Hill reminds some of Daniel Cabrera. When he's on with his location, there's not much that can stand in his way. For example, in a June 1 start against the Mariners, he pitched seven innings, allowed just two hits, no runs, and struck out seven.

His starts against Philadelphia (6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K) and Toronto (6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 4 K) weren't gems, but nonetheless good starts. However, when his location is off, he's a nightmare. For example, in a start against Oakland, he lasted just two-thirds of an inning. He allowed just one hit. However, he walked four batters, hit one man, and allowed three runs. Another example is his last start against New York, in which he only allowed three hits, but walked four batters, and allowed five runs, hitting the showers after just three innings of work.

The Jason Berken experiment has been a nightmare. At 25, he's a very young kid, so he has a chance to return to the majors with better stuff. However, with what he's shown recently, that wouldn't be a very big challenge. Oddly enough, Berken started off very well. In his debut, he allowed two runs over five innings of work in a win over the Toronto Blue Jays. In his next start, he pitched a gem against the dangerous Detroit Tigers, allowing just four hits and one run over seven innings of work.

However, Detroit hurler Edwin Jackson was even better, shutting out the O's, and Detroit came out victorious, 3-0. It looks as if that tough-luck loss served as a confidence killer for Berken. Since then, Berken has started nine games. In those appearances, he's 0-7, has a 7.71 ERA, and has struck out just 25 in 44.1 innings. Unlike Hill, Berken can work without his best stuff.

He's actually had some good starts in that stretch, believe it or not. In a June 18 start against the Mets, he allowed just one hit and had struck out nine through those innings, but struggled mightily in the sixth and seventh, and by the end of the night, he had pitched 6.2 innings, and allowed four runs. Anyone who watched that game knew he had pitched much better. In every game, he has shown some good flashes, but his confidence has been battered.

The Good

Brad Bergesen has been this year's version of Jeremy Guthrie. He's been the lone consistent starter on the team. At 23, you can't help but be excited for the future of this Fairfield, Calif., native. He has struggled in his last two starts. In a combined 12 innings, he's allowed five runs, combining to a 3.75 ERA, which is hardly a number to sneeze at for a rookie pitcher who is comfortable with his fastball at around 90 mph.

Bergesen showed some promise during Spring Training with a 3.09 ERA, but because he hadn't pitched above Double A, there would be no need to rush him. After mowing down the International League, he was promoted to the majors, and hasn't looked back. In 18 starts, he is 6-5, has a 3.56 ERA, and has allowed just 30 walks in just over 118 innings of work. Through Mid-May, he had seven starts, and most were about average. He had a very impressive debut against the White Sox, allowing one run in nearly six innings. But since May 29, his good outings haven't been few and far between.

In those starts, he is 5-3, has a 2.57 ERA, 18 walks, and 41 strikeouts. His three losses aren't much deserved, either. In his last loss, a July 24 start against Boston, he put the O's in a position to win, allowing three runs in six innings. He did an admirable job of working himself out of jams. In the first, he had a bases loaded jam, and got J.D. Drew to fly out, getting out of the frame unscathed.

In the fourth, he allowed three straight hits to open the inning, but got out of it with just one Boston run crossing the plate.  Again the next inning, "Bergy" got in a jam, allowing consecutive base runners to start the inning, but allowed just one run. He finished the outing allowing three runs in six innings. Was it a gem? No. But he did put the O's in a position to win. In his previous start, he allowed two runs over six frames. He was handed two unearned runs, and while he was in, the O's only scored one run.

In a 5-0 loss to the M's, he allowed three runs in six innings. It was a bad outing, as he allowed a first inning home run to Russell Branyan, and allowed runs in the fifth and sixth. He, yet again, put his team in a position to win. Whether he deserved to win is debatable. But if your starter gives up three runs, most times, you should win the game. Let's not forget the start he dominated the Red Sox over eight innings, allowing one run, and was handed a no-decision.

Since Koji Uehara's injury, rookie right-hander David Hernandez has stepped up big time. Hernandez, at 23, doesn't have ideal command. In fact, he has just 21 strikeouts, as opposed to 15 walks. However, he's been able to work around the command issues and hasn't dominated major league hitters by any stretch, but in almost all of his starts, has pitched very well. After Uehara went on the disabled list, Hernandez would be promoted to start June 28 against the Washington Nationals, and it wouldn't be an audition, with Uehara out until September.

Against Washington, he struggled with breaking ball command, allowing three runs in just less than six innings. It wasn't a terrible outing, but wasn't a good one, either. He struggled with breaking ball command, and gave up a titanic home run to Adam Dunn. In his next start, he would need to come up big. He'd be facing the Angels, a very high powered lineup. That he did. He pitched into the seventh inning, allowing six hits and three runs, and watching that game, everyone knows he pitched better than that.

Then, he would face Jason Vargas in Seattle, and didn't pitch a gem, but pitched a very good game. In six innings, he allowed five hits, and two runs, and in a 5-3 win, he worked his way to a no decision. He got no run support...literally. In the ninth, the O's pulled off a miraculous five-run rally against the normally lights-out David Aardsma. However, he had held a Mariners offense that outside of Russell Branyan and Ichiro, doesn't feature anyone that scares pitchers.

His next start would be the true obstacle. The rookie right hander with command issues would be heading to Yankee Stadium. You'd expect the kid would struggle, right? Wrong. Over six innings, Hernandez allowed a whopping three hits, one run, and struck out four. The only run to score was a solo home run he gave up early to power hitting utility man Eric Hinske. On the year, he's 2-2, has a 3.55 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .272 opponent's batting average, and at 24, could be in the rotation for a long time.

The Callup, And Thus, The Decision

So far this year, the O's farm system has generated lots of excitement. One young pitcher who has been a pleasure to watch is Chris Tillman. The 21-year old fireballing right handed pitcher has dominated for Triple A Norfolk, with an 8-6 record, 2.70 ERA, 99 strikeouts, and 26 walks. He has ideal size for a major league pitcher. At 6'5", 195, he's what you look for out of a pitcher at such an age.

The book on Tillman is very simple. He was traded from Seattle to Baltimore as part of the infamous Erik Bedard trade. He has a stellar fastball that can reach 94 mph, but also has two other above-average pitches to choose from: his curveball and changeup. His command has improved considerably from 2008. That year for Bowie, he struck out 154 in just above 135 innings, but also walked 65 batters, which caused for some concern. He had a rather shaky 2.4 strikeout per walk ratio.

This year, it is much improved. His last start was shaky, as he allowed four runs in three and two thirds innings, walked four batters, and didn't finish the fourth. However, on the year, he has 99 strikeouts and 26 walks, which means he averaged 3.81 strikeouts per walk, which is an encouraging sign, on top of the fact that his ERA is 0.48 lower than it was last season. Right now, it's Tillman time. Before the O's played the Red Sox on July 24, Dave Trembley announced that Berken and Hill would make their scheduled starts, and went on to state that Wednesday's starter would be someone currently in the minor leagues. Now who could that possibly be?

It's obvious Tillman is the guy who is being called up. One slight problem. He'll be going against Zach Greinke, who is the only bright spot in the Royals rotation, with a 10-6 record and 2.04 ERA. To put it lightly, starting him Wednesday makes little sense. Tillman, on proper rest, would be slated to start Monday, and with an extra day of rest, Tuesday. That would make a lot more sense than pitch him on two extra days of rest against baseball's ERA leader. On Monday, Kansas City would send Bruce Chen to the mound, a former Oriole who isn't exactly lighting things up with the Royals. In five starts, the 32-year old lefty is 0-5, and has a 6.58 ERA. To me, that'd make the most sense.

Tillman would be scheduled to pitch that day on a regular amount of rest, and has a great chance to win that game. Tuesday wouldn't be a cakewalk, but would be a hell of a lot more winnable than opposing Greinke. Kansas City would send Brian Bannister to the mound, a 28-year-old righty who, has been better lately, but is hardly unhittable. In his last ten starts, he's 2-5, but has lowered his ERA from a meager 4.97 to a very respectable 3.76, with a 3.86 ERA in those starts.

However, Tillman isn't slated to start either one of those games. Right now, the scheduled starts are Rich Hill (7.64 ERA) and Jason Berken (1-8 record). Let's ponder two scenarios. Let's say Tillman pitches a gem on Wednesday night, opposing Greinke. But Greinke, on his game (as always), pitches even better. That can't be a boost of confidence for Tillman, who at 21, is very fragile. While Greinke hasn't been nearly as good lately as he was early in the year, nobody in their right mind can expect him to keep up on the pace he was on in April.

In his last nine starts, he has a 3.34 ERA, and has won just two of seven decisions, but that has a lot to do with a lack of run support. Let's ponder scenario No. 2. Let's say Tillman gets to thinking before the game...very understandable for a very hyped pitching prospect expected to be crucial in the turnaround of the O's. Not only would he be nervous, he'd be facing a Cy Young candidate.

Tillman would feel pressured. He'd have a mindset before the game of "I have to pitch a gem tonight." Then, he would start aiming, and wouldn't last very long, would get handed a loss, and possibly have his confidence battered. These are both possibilities. Likely? Maybe not. But I think, and I'm sure almost everyone agrees, that it'd be a much better option to pitch Tillman against Chen or Bannister.

Why Jason Berken is still on the team continues to baffle many. He's lost eight straight decisions. He has an ERA above seven since his second career start. He has trouble going deep into games and is a soft-tosser with spotty command. I don't see a reason to keep him in Baltimore. What to do with Rich Hill? Hill is a very inconsistent lefty. He's got terrible command, especially of his fastball, and his rainbow curveball is the only one he can throw for strikes, and not very consistently, at that. The O's may not want to release him...yet.

He's out of options, so he'd have to pass through waivers if the O's wanted to see him again. And who knows? Maybe he could play a role as a long man out of the bullpen. That's unknown. One thing we do know? The Rich Hill experiment as a starter isn't working...at all. Let's say they send Hill to the bullpen and demote the struggling Berken to Triple A. What would the rotation then consist of? It would be led by Brad Bergesen, followed by Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Jeremy Guthrie, and then, it's unknown.

If Jake Arrieta and Troy Patton can adjust in Triple A, they could get callups. It could be in-house. There's a chance the O's would use current relievers Mark Hendrickson or Brian Bass as starters. Very unlikely, yes. Heck, the O's could be planning to keep Berken and Hill for one more go around. Honestly, I think it'd be best to release Hill, and try to claim him off waivers. Yes, I'd keep Berken in the rotation. He's struggling, obviously. However, I think he saved himself the last five innings of his last start.

After pitching horribly in the first inning, allowing four runs, he proceeded to pitch five more innings, allowing one more run, a solo home run to Jorge Posada. That's something Rich Hill could never do. When Hill doesn't have it, he gets rattled, and completely avoids the zone. If Berken can't put it all together in his next few starts, I think it may be time to promote a Jake Arrieta or Troy Patton, if they can pull it together in Triple A, which I feel very confident they will.

If Berken can take his last start as a learning experience, showing he very well can pitch well against top-of-the-line offenses like the Yankees, then the O's won't have to rush Arrieta or Patton, which would be a great thing not to do. There are many scenarios at this point. The rotation could consist of Bergesen, Hernandez, Guthrie, Berken, Tillman. It could consist of Bergesen, Hernandez, Guthrie, Tillman, Hill.

Over the next week, lots of questions will be answered. Like for instance: will Tillman start against baseball's ERA leader? Who's the odd man out? Will Hill be making his last start as an Oriole?

If I were the O's, I'd keep Berken in the rotation, and release Hill. But that's just me.

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