The Sideline Report: '09 College Football Preview

August is still a week away. Unfortunately, that means September is still too far away for my liking.

So there's no better time than the present to add to all the hype and expectations for the upcoming college football season.

I love baseball, but I live for college football (speaking in sports terms only).

This is my 11th season publishing a College Football preview, but the it's the first that more than 25 people will look at.

Last season was the first that I correctly predicted both participants of the National Championship Game.

My Preseason Top 30 is rather non-traditional. It is based solely on my estimation of the the 30 best teams in America based on last season's results, returning starters, team depth, and strength of schedule.

It is NOT how I think the season will finish.

The final page of this preview will contain my predicted Final Top 25.

Now that I've explained it all... Take a look!

Preseason Top 30: Nos. 30-26

30. Clemson

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 10 @ Ga. Tech; Sept. 26 vs. TCU; Nov. 7 vs. Florida State; Nov. 14 @ NC State

Analysis: Tough defense, new coaching staff, and a great running game will get Clemson back to where they want to be.

The ACC is back and Clemson could be a large part of that resurgence this season.

29. BYU

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 5 vs. Oklahoma; Sept. 26 vs. Florida State; Oct. 24 vs. TCU; Nov. 28 vs. Utah

Analysis: QB Max Hall is back, but some of his weapons are gone. With a QB as good as Hall, however, someone will step up and fill the void.

BYU had a great recruiting haul and the future looks bright. If this defense can mesh, BYU could move up this poll drastically later in the season.

28. Tennessee

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 5 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 19 @ Florida; Oct. 3 vs. Auburn; Oct. 10 vs. Georgia; Oct. 24 @ Alabama; Nov. 14 @ Ole Miss

Analysis: The Vols welcome a new look, a new style, and a new coaching staff. But the success Tennessee has in '09 will be based on the new arrivals of highly touted prospects that Lane Kiffin secured in only three months on the job.

If RB Bryce Brown is all he's cracked up to be, this UT team will surprise a lot of folks. But that's not all.

QB Jonathan Crompton HAS to improve drastically from last season. Kiffin's confidence in returning Crompton to something close to the highly touted high school prospect that he was five years ago gives UT fans hope.

The defense will once again be unbelievable with S Eric Berry as its central piece. LB Rico McCoy will anchor a young linebacker corps.

27. TCU

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 4 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 26 @ Clemson; Oct. 24 @ BYU; Nov. 14 vs. Utah

Analysis: TCU lost quite a bit of talent, but all they do is replace and reload. TCU will once again challenge in the Mountain West and could end up in the top 15.

26. Notre Dame

Returning Starters: 10 Offense - 5 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 19 vs. Michigan State; Oct. 17 vs. USC; Nov. 14 @ Pitt

Analysis: Notre Dame welcomes back 10 starters on offense. They also welcome a powder puff schedule.
Other than home games against Michigan State and USC, Notre Dame faces pretty much no one.

It comes at a perfect time for Charlie Weis, too. All that said, if Notre Dame doesn't replace their defensive losses, the Irish could still struggle and Weis could be gone at seasons end.

Preseason Top 30 Continued; Nos. 25-21

25. Rutgers

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 6 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 7 vs. Cincinnati; Oct. 16 vs. Pitt; Oct. 31 @ UConn; Nov. 12 vs. South Florida; Dec. 5 vs. West Virginia

Analysis: Greg Schiano has built a good program at Rutgers. This team was on fire through its final seven games of '08.

With this O-Line and running game, and a rather easy schedule, Rutgers could challenge for the championship in the wide-open Big East and a spot in the BCS.

24. Florida State

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 5 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 7 vs. Miami; Sept. 19 @ BYU; Sept. 26 vs. South Florida; Oct. 10 vs. Ga. Tech; Oct. 22 @ North Carolina; Oct. 31 vs. NC State; Nov. 7 @ Clemson; Nov. 14 @ Wake Forest; Nov. 28 @ Florida

Analysis: FSU is just further proof of the depth in the ACC. They lost some defense, but this offense should be really good.

Every O-Line starter returns, as well as the QB Ponder. The many play-makers on offense will help the defense during its growing process.

I believe FSU is on the verge of being very special, but it may be 2010 before we see that come to fruition.

23. Nebraska

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 6 Defense

Key Games: Sept 19 @ Virginia Tech; Oct. 8 @ Missouri; Oct. 17 vs. Texas Tech; Nov. 7 vs. Oklahoma; Nov. 14 @ Kansas

Analysis: The Black Shirts are back! Under the direction of defensive guru, Bo Pelini Nebraska's defense is making a comeback.

On offense the Huskers will have to gel and mature, but they have enough to win the Big 12 North this year. The hope in Lincoln is that this is the first step to the next Husker dynasty.

22. West Virginia

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 6 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 19 @ Auburn; Oct. 30 @ South Florida; Nov. 13 @ Cincinnati; Nov. 27 vs. Pitt; Dec. 5 @ Rutgers

Analysis:The Mountaineers will be back this season. Whether that means a top 10, top 15, or top 25 I do not know.

I am placing them here based on returning talent combined with the lack of quality teams in the Big East this season.

QB Jarrett Brown should pick up where Pat White left off. Brown filled in admirably during White's many injuries. In addition, the defense returns many starters.

The Big East could come down to the final weekend between West Virginia and my #25, Rutgers.

21. Oregon State

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 3 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 19 vs. Cincinnati; Oct. 24 @ USC; Nov. 7 @ California; Dec. 3 @ Oregon

Analysis: The Beavers lost their entire secondary, and most of its front seven, so defense will be a problem early on.

Luckily for Mike Reilly, the replacements are upperclassmen and the wait should not be too long for them to catch up.

The offense, however, will be in high gear from the word 'go'. The Rodgers Brothers and QB Moevao will help this team contend in a wide open PAC 10.

The lack of early success and a rough schedule keeps them out of the Rose Bowl, though.

Preseason Top 30 Continued: Nos. 20-16

20. Michigan State

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 19 @ Notre Dame; Oct. 24 vs. Iowa; Nov. 21 vs. Penn State

Analysis: The Spartans are another team building on success. Sure they lost Javion Ringer, but the talent at the skill positions is tremendous and ready to step in.

Couple that with an easier schedule compared to last season's, and this Michigan State team might just surprise a lot of people this season.

They will probably finish in somewhere between third and fifth in the Big 10.

19. North Carolina State

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 7 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 26 vs. Pitt; Oct. 3 @ Wake Forest; Oct. 31 @ Florida State; Nov. 14 vs. Clemson; Nov. 21 @ Virginia Tech; Nov. 28 vs. North Carolina

Analysis: The Wolfpack won its final six regular season games last year behind superb QB play and defense.

NC State will build on that youth, and should take advantage of an easier schedule this season.

The ACC is quietly building its conference back, and NC State is going to be one of the main cogs in that structure in '09.

QB Russell Wilson's star will continue to brighten.

18. Iowa

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 26 @ Penn State; Oct. 24 @ Michigan State; Nov. 14 @ Ohio State

Analysis: Iowa has been known for good defenses for quite a while. That is no different this season. Iowa could challenge for second in the Big 10.

They lost Shonn Greene from last season's Outback Bowl winning team, but the Hawkeyes should build on that team and finish well this season. I expect nothing worse than 9-3.

17. North Carolina

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 9 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 26 @ Ga. Tech; Oct. 22 vs. Florida State; Oct. 29 @ Virginia Tech; Nov. 28 @ NC State

Analysis: Butch Davis has these Tar Hills right where he wants them. They lost Hakeem Nicks at WR, but they will welcome back eight starters on offense, and nine on defense.

UNC will make another gigantic step forward this season. Unfortunately they play in the same ACC division as Virginia Tech.

But they will definitely challenge Georgia Tech for second in the division, and both teams will be ready to pounce should Virginia Tech falter at some point.

16. Ole Miss

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Oct. 3 @ Vandy; Oct. 10 vs. Bama; Oct. 31 @ Auburn; Nov. 14 vs. Tennessee; Nov. 21 vs. LSU

Analysis: Caution—Anyone projecting a Houston Nutt coached team to compete for a national title should not be allowed to call their bookie.

Ole Miss is talented. QB Jevan Snead is a stud and a Heisman candidate. But you don’t lose your best offensive and defensive linemen and all of a sudden get that much better.

Ole Miss has serious questions at LT. And Michael Oher's shoes wont be filled that easily. A relatively easy schedule gives the Rebs a legit shot at 9-3 or maybe even 10-2.

Quit the national title, talk though.

Preseason Top 30 Continued: Nos. 15-11

15. Georgia Tech

Returning Starters: 9 Offense - 7 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 10 vs. Clemson; Sept. 26 vs. UNC; Oct. 10 @ Florida State; Oct. 17 vs. Virginia Tech; Nov. 28 vs. Georgia

Analysis: All the play-makers return from a Georgia Tech team that played spectacular last season.

The horrible memory of the drubbing by LSU in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl may lead to some added motivation for this junior-loaded team.

Even though they were torched in the bowl game, the Yellow Jacket defense ranked 25th in total defense in 2008. That "D" returns seven starters including a vaunted LB corps.

The Jackets are further proof that the ACC is on the upswing.

14. Georgia

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 6 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 5 @ Oklahoma State; Sept. 19 @ Arkansas; Oct. 3 vs. LSU; Oct. 10 @ Tennessee; Oct. 31 vs. Florida; Nov. 14 vs. Auburn; Nov. 28 @ Ga. Tech

Analysis: I see something in this Bulldogs team that many do not.

Namely a senior QB with some experience, a stable of RB's, an entirely intact O-line and a much improved defense.

Those things are recipes for success in the SEC. QB Joe Cox will surprise a lot of people this season, just as D.J. Shockley did in 2005.

WR A.J. Green, and RBs Caleb King and Richard Samuel will be counted on heavily.

13. Oregon

Returning Starters: 5 Offense - 5 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 3 @ Boise St.; Sept.26 vs. California; Oct. 31 vs. USC; Dec. 3 vs. Oregon State

Analysis: Former Coach Mike Bellotti has moved into the AD's office and new head coach Chip Kelly has taken over the reigns in Eugene.

A strong offense and an experienced defense return key players. Their initial test at Boise State will be tough, but this Oregon team could finish ahead of USC in the Pac 10 this season.

The schedule plays out nicely, in that, the biggest conference games are played at Autzen Stadium.

Cal, USC, Arizona State, and Oregon State all come to Eugene this season.

12. Penn State

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 4 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 26 vs. Iowa; Nov. 7 vs. Ohio State; Nov. 21 @ Michigan State

Analysis: The Nittany Lions are seriously young. Their youth is full of talent, but vastly inexperienced.

That is, except for QB Darryl Clark and RB Evan Royster. These two make of the most talented QB-RB combinations in the country.

If Penn State's O-Line holds up and the defense can replace losses at key positions, Penn State could challenge Ohio State for the Big 10.

11. LSU

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 7 Defense

Key Games: Oct. 3 @ UGA; Oct. 10 vs. Florida; Oct. 24 vs. Auburn; Nov. 7 @ Bama; Nov. 21 @ Ole Miss

Analysis: LSU took two steps back last season. The Bayou Bengals were expected to stay near the top of the polls, yet ended up 8-5 and out of the top 25.

Les Miles expects much more out of the team this season. QB Jordan Jefferson along with RB Charles Scott, and WR Brandon Lafell should make this offense a force to be reckoned with.

Still, LSU's staple is defense. New defensive coordinator John Chavis turned that unit upside down in the spring, moving key players around to different positions.

If the D-Line is up to LSU standards despite losing three starters from '08, the Tigers could once again rocket up the polls.

Preseason Top 30 Continued: Nos. 10-6

10. Boise State

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 5 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 3 vs. Oregon

Analysis: QB Kellen Moore and supporting cast has Boise State on the cusp of turning the BCS on it's ear again.

A win over Oregon on their Thursday opener will almost hand Boise State an undefeated season before the other 11 games are even played.

These guys are no mid-major pushover, though. Boise State would give fits to just about any team in the country.

Behind the No. 3 scoring defense in the nation last season, the Broncos gave up an average of 12 ppg. The play-makers on that "D" are all back to improve upon that. Watch out for the Broncos this year.

9. Oklahoma State
Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 6 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 5 vs. UGA; Oct. 31 vs. Texas; Nov. 14 vs. Texas Tech; Nov. 28 @ Oklahoma

Analysis: The Cowboys will have the nation's most dangerous offense this season. QB Zac Robinson, WR Dez Bryant, and RB Kendall Hunter make a dangerous three-headed monster.

They are surrounded and protected by one of the deepest, most experienced O-Lines in the Big 12.

The question surrounding Oklahoma State will be on defense. They return one of the fastest LB-corps in the nation. The D-Line is also loaded with upperclassmen.

The secondary has experience, but not much. CB Perrish Cox leads a crew that finished 109th in passing defense in '08. I think they lose twice.

8. USC

Returning Starters: 8 Offense - 3 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 12 @ Ohio State; Oct. 3 @ California; Oct. 17 @ Notre Dame; Oct. 24 vs. Oregon State; Oct. 31 @ Oregon

Analysis: Well I guess I'll just go for broke here. USC lost eight defensive starters. Four of those starters were selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.

The Trojans do return their most talented defender in S Taylor Mays. But these losses are too severe to overcome an offensively minded Pac 10 schedule.

QB Aaron Corp will perform well in this system, but the inexperience on defense will cost the Trojans. USC will also debut new offensive and defensive coordinators in '09.

Tough road games at Ohio State, California, Oregon, and Arizona State could relegate the Trojans to third in the Pac 10.

7. California

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 26 @ Oregon; Oct. 3 vs. USC; Nov. 7 vs. Oregon State

Analysis: Led by star-RB Jahvid Best, this Cal offense might just become one of the nation's best in 2009.

They must replace a few losses on the O-Line, but the depth on that line was so good last season, they should not miss a beat.

The defense returns eight starters, including the entire defensive front and secondary.

LB Mychal Kendricks is a star in the making and Devin Bishop should step in to fill the void of losing LB Zach Follett.

I like the Golden Bears to win the Pac 10 and play in the Rose Bowl.

6. Virginia Tech

Returning Starters: 8 Offense - 7 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 5 vs. Bama; Sept. 19 vs. Nebraska; Oct. 17 @ Ga. Tech; Oct. 29 vs. UNC; Nov. 21 vs. NC State

Analysis: Simply put, the Hokies have one of the best defenses in all of college football.

The Hokies offense is one of the more potentially great offenses in the ACC. At this point, though, it is still potential.

If they reach that potential behind QB Tyrod Taylor and super soph WR Jarrett Boykins, look for Virginia Tech to make some national noise this season.

Preseason Top 30 Continued: Nos. 5-1

5. Oklahoma

Returning Starters: 5 Offense - 8 Defense

Key Games: Oct. 17 vs. Texas; Oct. 24 @ Kansas; Nov. 7 @ Nebraska; Nov. 21 @ Texas Tech; Nov. 28 vs. Oklahoma State

Analysis: Sam Bradford is a great QB. He will definitely be a Heisman finalist again in '09.

The Sooners experienced some big losses on the O-ine.
Four brand new starters up front will make Sam Bradford earn that No. 1 draft pick at seasons end.

The defense was awful last season. If that's not fixed, look for the increasingly stout Big 12 to give Oklahoma fits all season.

4. Alabama

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 9 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 5 vs. Va. Tech; Oct. 10 @ Ole Miss; Oct. 24 vs. Tennessee; Nov. 7 vs. LSU; Nov. 27 @ Auburn

Analysis: Nine starters return on defense. The offensive line lost some great talent, but they plugged in some of the nation's top high school talent in its place.

The Tide has an amazing stable of RB's coming back this season, led by Mark Ingram and super signee Trent Richardson.

They also have a QB who has been in the Tide system for three seasons. Greg McElroy will be asked to do the same thing that John Parker Wilson was asked to do last season—dont mess it up.

3. Ohio State

Returning Starters: 4 Offense - 7 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 12 vs. USC; Nov. 7 @ Penn State; Nov. 14 vs. Iowa

Analysis: I am high on the Buckeyes. I know they lost a couple of defensive playmakers, but seven starters return to that 14th ranked defense from a year ago.

QB Terrelle Pryor is the best athlete in the country. His supporting cast is second to none in the Big 10. New RB, Dan Herron will step right in and pick up where Beanie Wells left off.

2. Texas

Returning Starters: 7 Offense - 7 Defense

Key Games: Oct. 17 vs. Oklahoma; Oct. 31 @ Oklahoma State; Nov. 21 vs. Kansas

Analysis: Colt McCoy is back, but that's not all. The Longhorns are set both on the O-line and at WR.

The defense is young, but experienced. This team stacks up against pretty much any team in the nation. The run defense last year was ranked third, but losing Brian Orapko will hurt that ranking somewhat this season.

There are legitimately seven or eight teams who could win it all this season. Texas is easily near the top of that list.

1. Florida

Returning Starters: 6 Offense - 11 Defense

Key Games: Sept. 19 vs. Tennessee; Oct. 10 @ LSU; Oct. 31 vs. UGA

Analysis: This is the clear cut No. 1 team to start the season. Everyone is back on D and most are back on the offense.

Florida is two-deep at every position with talent. The Gators off the field problems might catch up to them this season as it did for Georgia last year and Tennessee in 2005.

Every preseason top ranked SEC team has trouble staying at the top. Might Florida become the next victim of that phenomena?

Week-by-week random predictions for '09

Week One - Alabama loses a tough fought game to Virginia Tech, 20-17. 'Bama fans in utter disbelief file out of the Georgia Dome dazed and confused that the ACC is still in existence.

Week Two - Ohio State thoroughly dismantles USC in front of a raucus home crowd and millions of people watching at home. Terrelle Pryor becomes a household name.

Week Three - Florida fans are stunned as the Gators only score 30 against Lane Kiffin and the hated Vols. Gators still win 30-24.

Week Four - Steve Spurrier begins to contemplate his future in Columbia after the Gamecocks fall to 1-3 in most humiliating fashion.

A Thursday night, national TV audience watches Ole Miss defeat South Carolina by 21.

Week Five - California serves notice on the Pac 10, and the rest of the nation that it is a force to be reckoned with after defeating USC 38 - 28.

Week Six - Florida, once thought unbeatable, loses at LSU on a last second field goal. Fans storm the field. Tebow makes another impassioned plea to his teammates and doesn't lose another regular season game.

Week Seven - The Longhorns get some Texas-sized revenge on the Sooners; The 'Horns leave no doubt that they are the No. 1 team in all the land.

Week Eight - Undefeated, fourth ranked Penn State travels to Ann Arbor, where Michigan fans are contemplating a coup to get rid of Rich Rodriguez.

Michigan fans finally get something to cheer about as the 4-3 Wolverines shock the nation with a win over the Nitney Lions.

Week Nine - Texas survives a scare at Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys fumble on the 'Horns 10 with less than a minute remaining. Texas wins 34 - 31.

Week Ten - Ohio State solidifies it's No. 2 ranking with a win at Top 15-rated Penn State. Terrelle Pryor's Heisman hopes sky-rocket.

Week Eleven - Notre Dame thrusts itself onto the national scene with a big win over Pitt. The two-loss Irish crack the Top 10 for the first time since 2005.

Week Twelve - No. 5-California rides into Palo Alto with all the confidence in the world. Stanford then pulls the upset to completely ruin any slim hopes for a Pac 10 National Champ.

Week Thirteen - North Carolina defeats NC State to finish the season 10-2. The Tar Heels win the Coastal Division of the ACC as Virginia Tech loses to Virginia the same day.

Week Fourteen - Alabama (10-2) and Florida (11-1) meet in the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 5. Alabama gets revenge by defeating the Gators to keep them out of the National Title Game.

Florida and Alabama are both stunned when the BCS determines that two undefeated teams, Ohio State and Texas, will play for the national title instead of a two-loss SEC team.

SEC Comissioner, Mike Slive pledges to "make some noise" at the Annual Meetings in Feburary after the latest BCS debacle.

Conference Championship Predictions

SEC: Alabama
ACC: North Carolina
Big 10: Ohio State
Big 12: Texas
Big East: West Virginia
Pac 10: California
WAC: Boise State
MWC: BYU

Heisman Prediction

Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Terrelle Pryor, and Colt McCoy were all profiled in my, "That's Mr. Heisman to You" series.

My prediction to win it is Colt McCoy.

McCoy was stellar last season and has a real chance to lead the Longhorns to the promised land in '09. The stats that he accrues over the season's three months will propel him to win the Heisman.

Bowl Predictions & Final Top 25

Holiday Bowl - USC vs. Oklahoma State

Sun Bowl - Oregon vs. Cincinnati

Champs Sports Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Michigan

Music City Bowl - Ole Miss vs. NC State

Chick-Fil-a Bowl - Auburn vs. Florida State

Outback Bowl - Tennessee vs. Iowa

Capital One Bowl - Georgia vs. Penn State

Cotton Bowl - LSU vs. Oklahoma

Gator Bowl - Nebraska vs. Georgia Tech

Rose Bowl - California vs. Michigan State

Orange Bowl - North Carolina vs. West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl - Boise State vs. Florida

Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Notre Dame

BCS National Championship Game - Ohio State vs. Texas - Texas wins it all
____________________________________________________________

Final '09 Top 25

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Florida
5. California
6. North Carolina
7. Oklahoma
8. LSU
9. Michigan State
10. Boise State
11. Penn State
12. USC
13. Notre Dame
14. Georgia
15. Nebraska
16. Florida State
17. West Virginia
18. Tennessee
19. Oklahoma State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Iowa
22. North Carolina State
23. Oregon
24. Virginia Tech
25. Ole Miss

Let the second-guessing and arguments begin!