In the Rocky saga, it was the soft spoken American who warmed our hearts. Seeing him defeat hypermacho loud mouths was the simple formula behind all six films. In the real life arena of MMA, we have a soft spoken Russian as fan favourite. Looming in the skyline is a hulk-like hick whose physique was previously only possible in DC Comics and is only outweighed by his monstrous ego.
We will see a Fedor-Lesnar fight. We have to. Not seeing a Fedor-Brock fight card would be like turning off an action movie 15 minutes before the end. It seems like the culmination of 15 years of MMA cut short. And it happens to have a movie-like theme to it. Good guy. Bad guy. Humility v. vulgarity. David v. Goliath. With everyone involved standing to gain financially, and with Fedor's Affliction teetering on the edge of sudden death, it will occur soon.
Unfortunately for this writer, the fairytale has to end here. I think the Fedor v. Lesnar match will most likely happen before the halfway mark of 2010, but I do not feel it will satisfy our urge to see balance restored to the force.
In regards to pound for pound skill, Lesnar is a third grader compared to Fedor. Unfortunately, size difference is a fearsome factor in Lesnar's favour. Fedor's 230 is probably 18 percent body fat, whereas Lesnar's 280 is probably below 10 percent. This gives an actual lean mass advantage of 60 plus pounds. Further, Lesnar is a highly unusual combination of size, strength, tremendous reach (81 inches) and speed. He is a college wrestling national champion and missed a final cut for the Minnesota Vikings by a hair. He is a gifted athlete, not a gifted fighter. Unfortunately, he bridges the fight dimension by flooding it with a surplus of physicality.
Remember that 60 pounds is nearly the entire weight division from light to heavy. Expecting Fedor to bridge this with skill alone is akin to wanting Jens Pulver to knock Rampage out cold. Not going to happen.
Both Fedor and Lesnar are essentially the same age, so degeneration won't be a factor. Fedor's experience is a Greek pantheon of MMA history, whereas Lesnar's is a Fort Lauderdale summer vacation slide show. However, the Newtonian Laws of Physics are unbendable, even with all the might of fan favouritism floating into Fedor's corner. Look, a ham sized fist attached to a minivan has knock out power whether it's intelligently thrown or not. A nearly 300 pound mass somethering you with the know-how and strength of a national wrestling champion is not something Fedor has delt with to date.
I believe Fedor has met his match in Lesnar. I unfortunately believe Lesnar will dominate the heavyweight division the way GSP and Anderson Silva own their respective domains. Yet he will not do so with the poetry and grace of either, but with the unbearably annoying vulgarity of a schoolyard bully. And unfortunately, Lesnar's oafishness will go unhumbled, especially as he adds Fedor to the notch on his belt.